• The Cycling News forum is still looking to add volunteer moderators with. If you're interested in helping keep our discussions on track, send a direct message to @SHaines here on the forum, or use the Contact Us form to message the Community Team.

    In the meanwhile, please use the Report option if you see a post that doesn't fit within the forum rules.

    Thanks!

Tour de France Tour de France 2024, Stage 15 14/7 Loudenvielle-Plateau de Beille 197.7k

Thanks to @Devil's Elbow
Stage 15: Loudenvielle - Plateau de Beille, 197.7k






Here’s another parallel with the Giro I didn’t mention in the first post: both of them have their queen stage (by elevation gain) on the penultimate Sunday, and both have done an absolutely awful job of using that elevation gain well. As such, this one is all about the MTF where the GC is concerned.

The route

4757c


c3ff3


(I really should put that profile in the worst profiles thread…)

The smallest stage host of this year’s Tour is Loudenvielle, appearing for the fifth time (the previous four, most recently in 2020 when Peters won thanks to Zakarin’s meme descending and Pogacar took back crucial time). There’s not much else to say about this place, a village depending primarily on tourism.

lacgenos.jpg


For the first time all race, we have an uphill start: Peyresourde from the easier side. It’s the final 7.0k of the profile below, enough to break things up but not enough to ensure the break goes here.

PeyresourdeW.gif


After Froome’s favourite descent down Peyresourde and a passage through the classic Tour host that is Bagnères-de-Luchon, there is quite a bit of valley before the intermediate sprint in Marignac.

oPUGXMv.png


The next course consists of tackling the second-hardest climb of the day, Col de Menté from the more difficult side. If the break goes here, it will have been a really hard start of the stage.

fr16.png


A fairly technical descent takes the riders to the bottom of Col de Portet d’Aspet. This is comfortably the preferable side to ascend: not only is it harder, but it’s also the side that has seen more than its share of awful crashes, including Casartelli’s fatal one, when used as the descent.

fr15.png


The actual descent is short and quite easy, and gives way to almost 60 kilometres of valley, where we’ll find out if this is one for the breakaway. The penultimate KOM of the day, Col d’Agnès, is too far from the finish to serve as a proper launchpad, but is at least hard enough to really thin out the peloton.

fr20.png


As ever when we’re heading west to east through this area, it’s a double summit, with the final 3.8k of Port de Lers (in defiance of tradition and common sense, uncategorised this year) to tackle before the main descent.

LersW.gif


And then it’s time for the problem with Beille – barring easy climbs, it necessitates a much longer stretch on wide, flat valley roads than the already-problematic one before Alpe d’Huez. The MTF is pretty good, but a purported queen stage just shouldn’t have a long valley before the big MTF.

plateaubeille.PNG


bUmpoSq.png


Plateau de Beille is the most important Nordic skiing venue in the French Pyrenees. This will be its seventh inclusion in the Tour (first stage in 1998, last one in 2015). Oddly, the first four of those stages were all won by the eventual GC winner (at least until Armstrong was erased from the record books).

Les_Isarges%2C_plateau_de_Beille.JPG


What to expect?

Of the four main mountain stages, this is probably the best one for the break, because it isn’t easy to control and the GC riders should keep their powder dry until the MTF. That being said, it’s unlikely the GC action will be as poor as on the last two stages here, when the favourites all finished together.
 
Break probably needs like 7 minutes at the foot of Agnes? I assume Jumbo would like to pace hard from foot of Agnes, last 70-80 km. Can Jumbo manage to get one or two of their guys in the break?

Everyone outside top 10, maybe even Gee and Ciccone, should try to get in the break.
 
Well, it seems UAE initially wanted to go for the sprint but they changed their mind so I was wrong regarding today. How about tomorrow? It depends how Pog feels of course and wheather Vingo can be better than today. UAE will try to capitalize on the current form dynamics so another Pog attack is likely - no big attack far from the line but likely last 3 km, trying to increase the gap further.
 
Ok, I changed my mind. After seeing what happened today UAE and Teddy will become greedy and will want to kill his nemezis tomorrow for good. There will be absurd pace by UAE super doms in the first half of PdB and Teddy will go nuts with half of the climb remaining. If will be a huge victory or will ...backfire if Skeletor suddenly regains megawatts. Epic scenes tomorrow!
 
After the way the gap kept going out to the line today I'd expect UAE to look to effectively close this out presuming Pogi isn't feeling the efforts excessively.

Would like to see Ineos try something that might put Rodriguez into podium contention but feels like the only real chance here would be if they gambled on getting up the road right from the get go and I imagine the race will be too well policed for that.

Unquestionably the day Guillaume Martin's assault on the top 10 begins though.
 
  • Like
Reactions: SHAD0W93