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Tour de France Tour de France 2024, Stage 2: Cesenatico > Bologne (Bologna), 199.2 km

From the stage-by-stage analysis: https://forum.cyclingnews.com/threa...4-stage-by-stage-analysis.39775/#post-3032416

If the first stage was this year’s Jaizkibel stage, then this one is this year’s Pike Bidea stage. In other words, time for the GC riders to come out to play.

The route

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(side note: am I the only one annoyed by the city being called Ravenna and the province being called Ravenne? It’s almost like trying to francisise everything is silly…)

On the first Sunday, the Tour continues to provide evidence in favour of it being a rehashed Giro by going for some good old Pantani veneration. And where better to do so than in Il Pirata’s hometown of Cesenatico? There honestly isn’t much to say about Pantani that qualifies as news to most of you, but I will point out that it’s rather serendipitous that, of all 26 Tour editions where he has stood as the most recent rider to complete the double, ASO picked the one where he’s most likely to get a successor to visit his turf for the first time.

Oh, and Cesenatico itself? Bog-standard beach resort town, that like Rimini had to be mostly rebuilt after severe damage in the Second World War.

Monumento_Pantani_Cesenatico.jpg


The monument to Pantani in Cesenatico. Riposa in pace.

The first port of call is Ravenna, one of the most important cities in Italy in Late Antiquity. The ailing Western Roman Empire moved its capital here in 402, and following its collapse, the city served as the capital of the Ostrogothic Kingdom and then, upon (re)conquest from the East, as the seat of the Byzantine Exarchate of Ravenna. All three states contributed to the city’s famed early Christian mosaics and monuments.

We then trade architecture for sport as the race heads for Imola. It’s a significant location from a cycling history perspective, having hosted the world championships in 1968 and 2020, but of course its significance is far greater in Formula 1. A Formula 1 circuit from 1980 to 2006 and again since 2020, it will forever be remembered for its darkest moment, perhaps the most notorious and impactful death in the history of sport in general – Ayrton Senna’s fatal crash in 1994.

…this is a rather depressing stage breakdown, isn’t it?

Returning to the present, Imola is reached via the climbs to Monticino and Cima Gallisterna. The former is the profile below as far as Rontana…

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…whereas the latter should be familiar as the deciding climb from the latter of the two Imola WCs.

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After hearing down the racing circuit, the riders make for the intermediate sprint in Dozza.

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The next section is spent heading straight down the Via Emilia towards Bologna. Just outside the city, there is another detour through the Apennine foothills, taking in KOMs at Botteghino di Zocca and Montecalvo. They skip the final 1.1k of the latter profile.

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Then, the riders do finally enter Bologna, where they will do two laps of a circuit featuring San Luca, of Giro di Emilia fame. Will we get another memorable performance by a GT winner here?


Oh, come on, this is the last time that video will be at all topical. Of course I was going to include it.

As for the climb, it’s very similar to Pike Bidea from last year’s first stage overall (2.1k at 9.5% versus 2.0k at 10.0%), but that one was all about the steep final kilometre, whereas the similarly steep ramps here are more spread out.

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San Luca is a bit further from the line than Pike Bidea last year (12.6k instead of 9.6k), thanks mainly to the rolling ridge road also used in Emilia just after the climb. There really isn’t much else to say about the finale, it’s very straightforward after the short descent from the ridge.

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Bologna, the largest city in and capital of Emilia-Romagna, has been continously inhabited since Etruscan times. It was one of Europe’s largest cities in the second half of the Middle Ages, an era which saw the establishment of the world’s oldest surviving university as well as the construction of its famous towers. The equally well-known porticoes are generally a bit more recent, the one up the San Luca (which is the longest) dating back to the 17th century. By this time, the previously more or less independent city had become a part of the Papal States, whose jurisdiction oversaw a gradual, but long decline from the end of independence in 1506 until Italian reunification. Today, it is one of Italy’s richest cities once more, still boasting a very well-preserved city centre in spite of significant damage in the Second World War.

Bologna._Porta_Maggiore._Strada_Magiore._Torre_degli_Asinelli_IMG_3874.JPG


What to expect?

A lot of GC riders and a number of Ardennes types battling it out, with the first GC gaps being opened up.
 
This is where Teddy will make his first move and test Vingo a bit. I'm expecting a powerful acceleration by him at some point of the last climb. Can anybody stick to his wheel? Rogla has the best chance. It's likely that he or they will have a small gap on the top (maybe with another strong guy i.e. Remco). If Vingo is left behind they will work together to distance him further. Otherwise I see them being caught by a selected group with more scenarios possible (secondary attacks by non-Big6, group sprint).
 
@gregariosdelujo shows the similarity between San Luca and Redoute:

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It's pretty much the hardest hill to regularly feature, more suited to climbers than Pike Bidea was. The record is 5'39" (by Rogla in 2019), more than twice the duration of Mur de Huy. As comparison, San Vito in the Giro was 3'36", and Pike Bidea in the Tour last year was 3'43" for the steepest part.

8-5-2 bonus seconds awaits at the top:

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So you know what's coming!

Arrivo_Roglic.jpg
 
@gregariosdelujo shows the similarity between San Luca and Redoute:

Fd-zv_OWIAA45LS


It's pretty much the hardest hill to regularly feature, more suited to climbers than Pike Bidea was. The record is 5'39" (by Rogla in 2019), more than twice the duration of Mur de Huy. As comparison, San Vito in the Giro was 3'36", and Pike Bidea in the Tour last year was 3'43" for the steepest part.

8-5-2 bonus seconds awaits at the top:

EqYJ-L1GBNXhsFX9HucS0PzyMQeCVNOt7a5GWCd34ScPSgtsLqYHnB0O2k6CpCg24xRRl7x--minNHuL3lAdM6vBwHJQtlrzsWo-dw


So you know what's coming!

Arrivo_Roglic.jpg
The finish of the stage is not in cote san luca, otherwise i would consider Roglic the favourite for the stage.
 
Communiqué sécurité / Security Communiqué
Ci-dessous la liste des passages difficiles de cette étape, merci d’être vigilant sur les points suivants :please find below the difficult passages of this stage, thank you to be vigilant to the following points:

Km 2 :rétrécissement sur 500m, passage sur une file/ narrowing part for 500m
Km 22 : RAVENNA :nombreux aménagements/ many splitters
Km 57 : FAENZ Anombreux aménagements/ many splitters
Km 71 : BRISIGHELLA :rétrécissement sur 1km, passage sur une file/ narrowing part for 1km
Km 87 > Km 97 :route étroite sur 10 km/ narrowing road for 10 kms
Km 141 :descente rapide sur 2 km / fast descent for 2kms
Km 147,8 : RASTIGNANOterre-plein central, passage sous un pont / splitter under a bridge
Km 151,2 : CÔTE DE MONTECALVOdescente rapide et sinueuse/ fast and winding descent
Km 166 et Km 184 : BOLOGNErétrécissement passage sur 1 file/ narrowing part
KM 171 et KM 189 : BOLOGNEdescente rapide et sinueuse/ fast and winding descent
 
Think OP needs reference to @Devil's Elbow to credit :)

IMO quite more predictable stage in comparison to stage 1 on how things will develop.
GC teams trying to let early break sail away.

Alternatively a real hard opener with late break and maybe counterbreak at Gallisterna could be in UAE's interest in order to soften Visma and do more damage to Kelderman. From there on keeping on a short leash on the break.

And then maybe even two Pogi bombs at San Luca.

Should be UAE logics.
 
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With 18 bonus seconds up for grabs it is inconceivable that Pogacar won't try.

Never noticed a climb broken down into 100 metre increments like that. If Vingegaard isn't gaped on Cima Gallisterna then he is going okay and that might play on Pogacar's mind.

Pogi and Roglic to finish together, Visma will drive the peloton to close some seconds before the finish.
 
With 18 bonus seconds up for grabs it is inconceivable that Pogacar won't try.

Never noticed a climb broken down into 100 metre increments like that. If Vingegaard isn't gaped on Cima Gallisterna then he is going okay and that might play on Pogacar's mind.

Pogi and Roglic to finish together, Visma will drive the peloton to close some seconds before the finish.
Why would it play on Pogacar's mind if Vingegaard is not gapped on Gallisterna? The climb is more than 100 km from the finish. Let's say UAE alone controls the stage. At that point, it's still probably Politt who will be pacing so no one should be getting gapped yet.