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Tour de France Tour de France 2024, Stage 4: Pinerolo > Valloire, 139.6 km

OP by @Devil's Elbow: https://forum.cyclingnews.com/threa...4-stage-by-stage-analysis.39775/#post-3032418

A stage starting in Pinerolo? Check. Three Alpine climbs? Check. Final one is the Galibier from Briançon? Check. Is it the stage Andy Schleck did his great raid on in 2011? Not check. It should still legitimately test the GC field, though.

The route

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The final of our seven Italian stage hosts is Pinerolo, the only one to have already hosted in this century. In 2011, Edvald Boasson Hagen won here from the break the day before the aforementioned queen stage. Of course, it’s better known for being the finish on that day when Fausto Coppi did the most legendary ride of his career in 1949. Away from cycling, it was already a significant town from the 10th century onwards, sitting at a strategically-important point to defend Piemonte from French invasions. Indeed, France held the town for large parts of the 16th and 17th century, after which it returned to the House of Savoy under the condition that it would no longer be fortified. It hosted the curling events in the 2006 Winter Olympics.

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The route itself is essentially the shortest possible route from Pinerolo to Valloire. The first 50 kilometres are spent heading up the Val Chisone, through the intermediate sprint in Castel del Bosco (see the climb profile below), eventually climbing to the pass at Sestriere. It’s the fifth-highest climb of the race, notable only for its sheer length which could easily have earned cat. 1 status. Sestriere has been the finish of quite a few memorable GT stages, starting with Coppi cementing his second and final Giro-Tour double by winning by seven minutes in 1952, then including Chiappucci’s ridiculous raid in the 1992 Tour, Riis and Armstrong’s equally-notorious wins in the 1996 and 1999 editions, Garzelli snatching the Giro from Casagrande at the last moment in 2000, Savoldelli’s great defense in 2005, and most recently Tao Geoghegan Hart deciding the 2020 Giro. It was also the Olympic skiing venue in 2006.

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An easy, shallow descent takes us to Cesana Torinese, which sits at the foot of the Col de Montgenèvre. Towards the summit of this climb, the riders enter France. As the lowest route over the western half of the Alps, it has been of great significance since ancient times, but it isn’t the most exciting climb for the same reason.

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After descending (this time even more easily) to the famed citadel of Briançon, it is time for the Souvenir Henri Desgrange, unusually not being awarded at the highest point in the race. Yes, this is the easy side of Galibier, but it still beats Passo di Foscagno for all three of height, steepness and elevation, and we all saw what happened there in the Giro. Heck, we saw Bernal drop everyone here last time this side was used at the pointy end of a stage in the 2019 Tour. It isn’t brutal, but definitely shouldn’t be underestimated either.

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The descent is decently technical until its midway point at Plan Lachat, then becomes quite straight as well as less steep. However, it does last until the flamme rouge, which makes it harder for things to come back together.

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Valloire is distinct from the majority of French resort towns at this altitude in that it’s actually (developed from) a mountain village, rather than being a bunch of concrete apartment blocks slapped onto a mountainside. The hometown of two-time slalom world champion Jean-Baptiste Grange, it has hosted the Tour twice before: a sémitappe in 1972 won by Eddy Merckx, and the aforementioned 2019 stage where Nairo Quintana emerged victorious (what Colombia would give to relive those days…).

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What to expect?

I don’t see a reason for Pogacar not to attack. It isn’t suited for a decisive blow, but it is definitely hard enough for real gaps.
 
20k banger descent, the climb isn't that hard but the altitude and gradient of the last 5k is the killer, so there will be reasonable gaps. They will need to put 45 seconds minimum between themselves and Pidcock, Bilbao, Rodriguez and Bardet or they will have a hell of a battle on their hands.
 
I expect UAE to take the control on Monginevro and launch Pogacar in the first kms after the Lautaret. Then he will see who does what...I think if he can't drop Jonas we will see a reduced sprint for bonuses and the stage.
 
UAE need to set a big pace and let Pogacar and Vingegaard duke it out for the glory. I don’t think anyone else will be able to follow after they attack. Be interesting the damage control Carapaz, Simon, Roglic, and Evenepoel can do.
The descent is going to be furious, both by those in front and chasing. Hope they all stay on their bikes.
 
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