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Tour De France 2024 Stage 8: Semur-en-Auxois – Colombey-les-Deux-Églises, 183.4k

Shamelessly copied from Devil's Elbow (thanks agian for the hard work!)
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The first 20 kilometres are easy, the 20 after it are the day’s hardest, with three KOMs. If the break goes here, it is likely to be a strong one.

Côte de Vitteaux:
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Côte de Villy-en-Auxois:
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Côte de Verrey-sous-Salmaise:
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Next up is the intermediate sprint in Lamargelle.
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After crossing over into the Haute-Marne, the hills return, with the Côte de Santenoge…
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…and the Côte de Giey-sur-Aujon.
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With that, at 60k to go, the KOMs are done, hence why this isn’t even remotely worth calling a hilly stage. The only place of note on the route is the departmental capital of Chaumont, notable for its spectacular railway viaduct and for being the headquarters of the American forces in the First World War. There is one hill, Côte de Sexfontaines at 14k to go, that I’m surprised has not been categorised, but it’s hard to see that hill in isolation being enough to force splits.

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The finale is almost completely straight from Juzennecourt onwards. The final 1.2 kilometres average 3.3%, ramping up to 5.1% in the final 180 metres, but they will enter this section at high speed.
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Expect lots of talk about Charles De Gaulle who's got a mixed reputation depending on who you talk to (and the man that was the target in the movie "Day of the Jackel"). The Tour famously has only ever stopped when it did so to honour the man.

What to expect :
Most of the sprinters should back themselves here. With this being the best opportunity for the likes of Pedersen and De Lie, it’s hard to see the break having a shot either.
 
It's a punchy stage with several muritos, but they're at more than 60 km of the finish. The final 15 km still has three little climbs, but they're not very tough. The final km is only 3% uphill.

I don't think the break will make it, because Lidl-Trek and Lotto will work for Pedersen and De Lie, who haven't won a stage yet. Van der Poel could try something in the final, or he might save his legs for tomorrow. Some of the sprinters will be dropped, but Philipsen and Girmay might be able to hang on. Van Aert's shape is still doubtful, but that uphill sprint should suit him.

If I had to pick a winner it would be Pedersen, but anyone with a good kick can take this.
 
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As a classic I would bet my money on Remco winning with an early attack looking at this profile. But a grand tour is different and Wellens, Sivakov, Soler, A. Yates, Ayuso and Almeida following him would be horrible for his chances as he would have to invest a lot while not able to win much time. So I expect not much to happen between the main gc guys.

So the question for me is if teams like Lidl for Pedersen, Lotto for De Lie, Alpecin for Philipsen or Intermarche for Girmay will try to keep the field together and let this end in a reduced bunch sprint. It will surely depend on the constellation of the front group. I expect guys like Van Gils or Van der Poel trying to get in the main group which could end up with not much teams having interests in following the front group.

It depends on the size of the front group and who will be in that group but for me it looks most probable that it will be a day for the early attackers.
 
How many guys in the break, 2 or 20? Sprint teams will want to keep it under control so not a big time gap regardless Pogi's bored but I think tomorrow and the gravel will be his day to try something. .
Tomorrow, Mathieu and Tadej leaves the Peloton in the dust. 😅
Mathieu help Tadej Merckx to gain minutes and Tadej let Mathieu having the stage.
Epic.
 
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I don't think Trek necessarily will pull either. Mads Pedersen is pretty *** atm, and Jumbo won't pull, so it should be the other durable sprinter teams like Lotto and Intermarche. Well, ofc Alpecin is pulling as well actually.

Still I would be very disappointed if we wont get a good fight for the break here. Actually quite a hard stage, and I would be furious if these teams with 2nd and 3rd tier sprinters don't try to make it in a break because a rider like Vaquelin sure as hell as a bigger chance of winning the stage from a 8 man group than Demare has.
 
Can we have an old fashioned stage, that don’t seem to exist anymore, where we have a very strong break and a peloton trying to chase them down. These used to be some of the most exciting stages in grand tours. Working out how the peloton were going to reel them in, working out how the break were going to conserve and try and survive. We now get either a strong break with the peloton sitting up and not chasing or a weak break with the peloton catching them easily.
Asgreen’s win in last year’s TDF was exhilarating
 

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