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Tour de France 2024 - The battle of the big 4

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Vuelta 2019 Roglic crashed on Giro 2019.
Vuelta 2020 Roglic crashed on Dauphine 2020.

Vuelta 2021 Roglic crashed on Tour 2021.

Those crashes have no effect on his Vuelta performance. He had recovered enough for any nagging effect of both. We could even argue about 2021 TdF, since he was able to win the Olympic ITT afterwards.

BTW why does 2020 Roglic look like the Galician version of the Phantom of The Opera?
 
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This is not a random quote. The interview is on "Rouler" and is not out of context. He was speaking about Vingegaard.
Your quote it out of the blue. The only source I could find was here:


The interview is from February 2024. My post is about Vuelta which took place in August-September 2023! And you dare to say that it's not out of context.
There's no indications that Roglic is at the level of Vingegaard, even Roglic fans in general already admitted that Roglic is not at the level of Pogacar and Vingegaard in Grand Tours, but of course it doesn't mean Roglic can't win the Tour, because bad luck sometimes happens, and it just takes one or two crashes to change the situation.
Being a fan of a rider has no bearing in acknowledging that the rider is above or under another rider.
Roglic winning a Tour with Vingegaard and Pogacar without any mishaps affecting these three riders is possible, although odds are not on Roglic's side. It depends on the parcours. People forget what Roglic's real level is because he's always riding with injuries or crashing out.
Visma knows very well who is the strongest of the two. For some reason they let Roglic go, and they stayed with Vingegaard. For some reason they choose Vingegaard instead of Roglic for the Tour 2023 because they knew/said they had the data who let them confident he could beat Pogacar, and of course, they knew they had more chances with Vingegaard instead of Roglic to win the Tour. Unless you think Heijboer doesn't understand nothing of data.
I have said multiple times that data is useful for teams and riders assessing their performances but one has to be bigger than data in order to know how to read it

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It sounds like teams prepare races and make decisions solely based on data: "we have run the model with the route of Tour 202X and it says there's a 99% chance of Vingo beating Pogacar. Data is a suggestion, the outcomes are not written in stone and data is there to be interpreted. Data only becomes real when they race. Otherwise races would be decided before they happen, which is what you seem to entail. And you cannot measure how the psyche affects performances or your dear "data output".

Finnally, there are other reasons for Roglic not going to the Tour: crashing out so often (2x) and loosing one Tour in stage 20, avoiding conflicts within the team, being older.
You just need to look at the perfomances in the previous Tours. Vingegaard absolutely annihilated Pogacar in the Time Trial.

Roglic lost the Tour in the Time trial to Pogacar.
I have say it before and I'll say it again: this is LAZY thinking. You cannot use rider X to compare rider Y to Z. Because you ignore contexts with all their magnitude. The routes in both TTs are different. PDBF TT happened in stage 20 in Tour 2020, Combloux TT in stage 16 in Tour 2023.

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Are you really serious talking about the Vuelta 2023?! Vingegaard had the the Tour de France in the legs, he was sick in the first week, and he stayed in Denmark between the Tour and Vuelta. He didn't made a good preparation like Roglic.

Roglic was in altitude training camps, did a perfect preparation, and yet he never could drop Vingegaard, not even on Jalavambre or Angliru.
Again, I was talking about Angliru and the Vuelta in general: Roglic and Vingo couldn't drop each other. Vuelta 2023 Roglic besides his "age" proved he was up there with the allegedly best GT rider in the world. I was not stating that Roglic proved he was better, I stated he showed how he was not worse.

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Roglic was fantastic in Angliru however he can't drop Vingegaard. Vingegaard was way stronger in the Tour compared to level he showed in the Vuelta.
I hope to be wrong but I didn't like his level in Paris Nice. It seemed a past his prime Roglic and he needs to show his best version ever to beat Pogacar (I think he has a chance specially after seeing so many legendary GT riders failing to win the double). It is his best chance since 2020 so let's hope for no crashes to have a proper fight for the yellow jersey.
 
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Roglic was fantastic in Angliru however he can't drop Vingegaard. Vingegaard was way stronger in the Tour compared to level he showed in the Vuelta.
He was. And I thought that Vingegaard was sandbagging the entire Vuelta after the first week or so, in fact I think that's pretty well known. (Although Roglic was probably holding back, though maybe not on Angliru -- I sort of discount both their performances in the Vuelta last year because of many factors.)

But there is an important point about Roglic's true level being something of an unknown because of injuries. When he is good he is really, really good. Maybe not quite at Vingegaard's level but certainly Pog's TdF level. The million-dollar question is whether Roglic is feeling a bit of his age and starting to decline a bit. If he stays upright in the Tour I think we'll answer that question pretty definitively bc Pog is going to be tack-sharp.
 
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Those crashes have no effect on his Vuelta performance. He had recovered enough for any nagging effect of both. We could even argue about 2021 TdF, since he was able to win the Olympic ITT afterwards.

BTW why does 2020 Roglic look like the Galician version of the Phantom of The Opera?
Crashes affect every rider in physical and psychological terms.
I was drawing the argument that Roglic's procycling career features a dialectics of "bad luck" that forces him to come back and prove a point. Not every rider can do it.
 
Those crashes have no effect on his Vuelta performance. He had recovered enough for any nagging effect of both. We could even argue about 2021 TdF, since he was able to win the Olympic ITT afterwards.

BTW why does 2020 Roglic look like the Galician version of the Phantom of The Opera?
No effect is a very strong claim. I think it affected him somewhat in both 2020 and 2021.
 
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@Elos Anjos

Yeah, Rogla was great through the whole 2023 season, including Vuelta.

I always enjoy these threads in the run up to Roglic races.

Me too.

The Roberto Heras of his generation

Admittedly, whenever Vuelta starts i always think about Roberto. Rogla will be an appropriate successor, breaking his set record. Vuelta took Rogla in when he had nothing, it's only appropriate for Rogla to credit Vuelta in such fashion.

Or Tony Rominger.

One of the all time greats indeed. At JV reaching such heights and at Bora to leapfrog Tony. No shame in that, considering all Merckx-ian alike riders crossing the finish line just shy of Rogla.

Rogla needs one more monument to make it a perfect draw.

Obviously. In the works!

There's no indications that Roglic is at the level of Vingegaard, even Roglic fans in general already admitted that Roglic is not at the level of Pogacar and Vingegaard in Grand Tours, but of course it doesn't mean Roglic can't win the Tour, because bad luck sometimes happens, and it just takes one or two crashes to change the situation.

Noted. If Rogla wins the Tour then it's due to bad luck of somebody else but if instead Jonas wins it, then it's because he is the best.

Visma knows very well who is the strongest of the two. For some reason they let Roglic go, and they stayed with Vingegaard. For some reason they choose Vingegaard instead of Roglic for the Tour 2023 because they knew/said they had the data who let them confident he could beat Pogacar, and of course, they knew they had more chances with Vingegaard instead of Roglic to win the Tour. Unless you think Heijboer doesn't understand nothing of data.

Well, Bora still has some say in that. I agree, though, that at Visma Rogla would not get chances any more in regards to the Tour, Visma would indeed push Jonas ahead.

Are you really serious talking about the Vuelta 2023?! Vingegaard had the the Tour de France in the legs, he was sick in the first week, and he stayed in Denmark between the Tour and Vuelta. He didn't made a good preparation like Roglic.

Roglic was in altitude training camps, did a perfect preparation, and yet he never could drop Vingegaard, not even on Jalavambre or Angliru.

It's debatable, due to internal team politics and not for the road settings things straight. What i can tell you is Rogla could have easily dropped Jonas on stage one already. But why, debate, now both can do the talking on the road not limited by some inner team politics. The respective team behind each hopefully to force both, to win.

BTW why does 2020 Roglic look like the Galician version of the Phantom of The Opera?

Why not, eh?
 
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Vuelta 2019 Roglic crashed on Giro 2019.
Vuelta 2020 Roglic crashed on Dauphine 2020.
Vuelta 2021 Roglic crashed on Tour 2021.

Vuelta 2023 Roglic is thus more real for me because that's the Roglic that after crashing out of Vuelta 2022 and Tour 2022 he had to face how the field changed again so quickly. His former wins were being washed either in the "wheelsucking" department or the "weak field" university of cycling, together with the "he is too old" to win GTs project.

Vuelta 2023 Roglic was the sleeping phoenix that after being pushed to a Giro that he won against all odds and that he won after a crash in one of the most memorable stages counter PDBF 2020 where he was on the opposite side. There's no script like this in modern cycling.

So in Angliru 2023 he showed the world and his own team that he was as good as their designated rider for the Tour and its winner and he showed he was there to win first and foremost like the warrior he is. Only his fans could read between the lines what was going on.
Roglic was clearly losing the Vuelta 22 before dropping out. During the Vuelta 23 he never gave the impression that he could win it. He once attacked his own leader at that moment, Kuss, and his teammate Vingegaard. But he was only able to gain a lead of a few seconds and was easily caught by the other teams.

Still, I think he will compete for the final victory in the Tour. By grabbing a few seconds and bonus seconds here and there. If he does not have a breakdown and does not crash (that will be difficult for both him and Evenepoel!), then he may be able to benefit from the fact that Pogacar and Vingegaard will neutralize each other. So that he can always come back after an attack by either of them.

But then Roglic also has to ride a good time trial twice. That becomes more difficult.
 
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