Tour de France Tour de France 2025: who will win the race?

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Who will win?

  • Pogacar

    Votes: 94 68.1%

  • Vingegaard

    Votes: 19 13.8%

  • Roglic

    Votes: 9 6.5%

  • Evenepoel

    Votes: 4 2.9%

  • Almeida

    Votes: 1 0.7%

  • Jorgenson

    Votes: 1 0.7%

  • Lipowitz

    Votes: 2 1.4%

  • Other/End of the world

    Votes: 8 5.8%
  • Total voters
    138
Krzysztof_O

Krzysztof_O

Jul 7, 2013
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It's time for the finest cycling experts on the planet to give their verdict on the world's biggest race! (maybe betting help for some?). Let's look at the contenders:

Pogacar

Absolutely dominant since the start of last year. Not losing his momentum this year either and Dauphine confirmed his status of #1 favourite. Super strong on any varying terrain and no apparent weakness (heat and long climbs seem resolved). If anything his TT is a small question mark after the Dauphine.

Vingegaard

According to many, the only man who could beat Pogacar at the Tour. He did it twice already and their rivalry is legendary (four consecutive top2 finishes together, only Coppi&Bartali had four top2 together but in all GTs in total). According to Visma-LAB the preparations were perfect (contrary to turbulent last year) and he'll want to regain the trophy with his super-strong team. Still, a significant improvement is required vs his Dauphine level to have a realistic chance.

Roglic

A very accomplished stage-racer (maybe the most in the last decade). Won almost all stage-races he could...except the Tour. Crashes have been his main problem at the Tour but other than that the "mutants" will be very hard to beat anyway. Or maybe this time luck will be on his side crashes-wise? (while not on Pog's & Vingo's side)

Evenepoel

After 3rd last year he seems to be heading towards a similar position this year. Maybe there'll be an interesting rivalry with Roglic for the podium? It looks like the top2 guys are out of reach in the mountains for him and obviously one, flat TT is nothing compared to those huge MTF finishes.

Almeida

Pog's super-dom who won 3 prestigious 1-weekers this year. Would need bad luck by Pogacar to lead his team but even that is probably not enough to fight for victory (unless Vingo has bad luck as well). Podium is not out of reach though.

Jorgenson

Vingegaard's super-dom should fight for top5 position. He'll undoubtedly be 100% commited to his duties so only bad luck by his leader give him chances to fully fight for his own. We are still waiting for him to lead in a GT but he doesn't seem too eager for that (he refused it this year).

Lipowitz

Revelation of the Dauphine but it's yet to be seen if he can fight for a Tour podium spot. Maybe it's still one step too far but it'll be interesting to see his progress. He should be a protected rider in the team lead by Roglic but probably won't have a problem if his commitment is needed.
 
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Extinction

Extinction

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Given how Pog dominated the Dauphine, you cannot bet against him. Only a crash or mechanicals could hamper him from winning. However, bicycle racing isn't a maths equation, too many variables and unpredicted plot turns. Vingegaard on his past Tour wins is the natural second choice, afterwards the second and third tier candidates have their chance, but everything would have to go perfectly. Unless Evenepole significantly ups his game in the high mountains, for example, he doesn't have a chance of winning. At the same time, the front runners would need to slow down uphill. This, I think, is the logical analysis based on the evidence.
 
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Rackham

Rackham

Jul 16, 2015
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Red Rick said:
***** Pog
**** Vingegaard
***
**
* Roglic, Evenepoel
Click to expand...

I'd be tempted to drop Vingegaard down to three stars. His level in the Dauphiné was a bit too sketchy.

In any case if this goes according to logic, intrinsic values and hard mathematical certainties, it'll be the last time quite a few people get 'hyped' for the Tour de France... at least until Paul Seixas.

The gap from Pog to the rest is now seemingly just too big to be entertaining.
 
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Red Rick

Red Rick

Feb 20, 2012
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Rackham said:
I'd be tempted to drop Vingegaard down to three stars. His level in the Dauphiné was a bit too sketchy.

In any case if this goes according to logic, intrinsic values and hard mathematical certainties, it'll be the last time quite a few people get 'hyped' for the Tour de France... at least until Paul Seixas.

The gap from Pog to the rest is now seemingly just too big to be entertaining.
Click to expand...
I wasn't hyped last year already. It was a foregone conclusion with people in denial because Pogacar had done an easy Giro and they were somehow forgetting Pogacar doesn't do fatigue. Vingegaard was surprisingly good and he still got battered.

This year is probably same difference but it'll feel worse because Vingegaard had a relatively undisturbed preperation so it'll just look much more out of place.

I have a small hope Vingegaard makes a bigger jump from the Dauphine, but I expect more that it will make it closer than the Dauphine was rather than an actual battle.

Maybe we get some fake tension when Pogacar drops a huge turd in the stage 5 ITT or something.
 
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Rackham

Rackham

Jul 16, 2015
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We'll get crash tension and ITT tension. Evenepoel can take yellow and that will spice things up a little bit. It's also backloaded, which means suspense will last longer and gaps will be smaller until later.

But we just had an extremely boring Dauphiné that was hyped and delivered riders just spinning their legs and the watts doing the talking. Give me what we saw in Finestre in the Giro > what happened in the Dauphiné any day.

The 'hope' if there is one is that Vingegaard is much closer than anticipated, at which point those two can even begin to mark each other out and give others a little bit of breathing room (because of those two playing games).

And as a Rog fan it'll either be a bitter experience we've had many times already or a bittersweet one. By that I mean finishing 3rd or 4th is not particularly exciting, i.e. I'd take another Vuelta win over that any day. Maybe his sponsor really craves a TdF podium but when Richie Porte or Adam Yates have podiumed the Tour, it's not particularly exciting, is it?
 
Squire

Squire

Dec 28, 2010
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Netserk said:
* * * * * - Pogi
* * * * - Vingegaard
* * * -
* * - Evenepoel, Rogla, Almeida
* - Lipowitz, Jorgenson, A. Yates, Martinez, Rodríguez
Click to expand...
One of your less edgy posts. :D

From 5 to 2 stars are pretty much consensus everywhere, I'd say. I would put Gall ahead of Yates, Martinez and Rodriguez probably, or at least in the mix with them. I think another occurence of mythical Gall is incoming.

Also hoping for a breakout performance from THJ, while Skjelmose, Mas and maybe Van Eetvelt and Onley should be somewhere in the mix of 1-star riders too. I certainly believe more in some of them than Martinez making it through a GT without a bad day, but I guess on potential he could be higher than those guys. I also don't believe in Yates at all.

So if we want to keep the 1-star category fairly slim, we can keep only Lipo, Jorgenson and maybe Rodriguez and Gall there. Or make it more conventional and bump Lipo and Jorgenson up to two stars while making use of the 3-star category and adding more of my guys to 1-star.
 
Netserk

Netserk

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Gall could be the third strongest climber and still not make the top-5. That's just Gall being Gall. I see very few with the chance to make the top-5, and I think Lenny has timed it right to potentially make it. There are of course much safer bets for the top-10.
 
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Red Lobster

Red Lobster

Jun 22, 2009
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***** - Pogacar
**** - Vingegaard
*** -
** -
* -
I mean, it's straight up impossible to imagine anyone else winning unless crashes/illness take them both out - and to me the purpose of this kind of ranking it so look at relative chances of winning based on strength, not on whether bad luck might upset the party.

ETA: I think "End of World" is way more likely than Almeida, Lipowitz, et al.
 
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