Tour de France Stage 4: Lorient - Mur de Bretagne - 172.5 km

Jun 28, 2011
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Mur de Bretagne :



Will Contador attack?
Will Gilbert win again?
Will there by any GC casualties?
 
sultanofhyd said:
Will Contador attack?
Will Gilbert win again?
Will there by any GC casualties?
a safe bet, but may choose to save himself for the Mountains
a safe bet that Gilbert will, but could be marked so much that someone else could get away (like Gatto's attack in Tropea)
possibly as they all try and get to the front to cover any and all attacks

I'd expect an attack by Evans in a bid to grab yellow and attempt more time on the schlecks. Also Vino to have a crack at it.
 
May 12, 2010
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Archibald said:
a safe bet, but may choose to save himself for the Mountains
a safe bet that Gilbert will, but could be marked so much that someone else could get away (like Gatto's attack in Tropea)
possibly as they all try and get to the front to cover any and all attacks

I'd expect an attack by Evans in a bid to grab yellow and attempt more time on the schlecks. Also Vino to have a crack at it.
The problem with marking Gilbert is that he is so much better than everyone else, it barely matters. The only one who I think can beat him in a sprint is Rojas, but only if they take it slow on the steep kilometer. An early attack on the climb could work, but I think his team is strong enough to keep it together.
 
Jul 28, 2010
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Contador won't get any time, as he'll have a couple of Luxembourgers glued to his wheel.

I imagine Evans will be in yellow by tomorrow.
 
I want to see Vino win it, but I was not inspired by his dig on the first stage. Gilbert on the other hand looked too good to be beat, just like the spring. Someone mentioned in another thread that Millar could end up in yellow, which I think can happen.

EDIT: forgot about Evans, maybe I'll hedge my bets on him for yellow.
 
Jun 4, 2011
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Gilbert is too stronger than the rest of the field in this kind of finish, i doubt some other team will help Lotto, maybe BMC and Astana, so i expect a lot of guys willing to get on a breakaway and a good amount of chances for them.
I think a guy like Samu Sanchez might attack in this.
 
Jul 28, 2010
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Moose McKnuckles said:
Easier said than done. Ask the guys at the Giro how that worked out.
You may be right.

However, this climb isn't Mt. Etna, and Scarponi isn't Andy Schleck.

I've never been convinced that Contador is going to be back in '09 form for the Tour.
If anything, he'll be a lot closer to his form last year, with the Giro in his legs.
And as such I can't see him dropping Andy on any climb.
I may be wrong, of course.
 
Jul 8, 2010
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jobiwan said:
Contador won't get any time, as he'll have a couple of Luxembourgers glued to his wheel.

I imagine Evans will be in yellow by tomorrow.
Last year on Mende a luxemburger already wanted to be there to suck his wheel, but he failed, and he will fail tomorrow too. If the luxemberugers want something then they need to believe in Cancellara, and never release his hand.
 
Jul 28, 2010
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vcampbell said:
Last year on Mende a luxemburger already wanted to be there to suck his wheel, but he failed, and he will fail tomorrow too. If the luxemberugers want something then they need to believe in Cancellara, and never release his hand.
We'll see. This year Andy's got Frank, and the Mur de Bretagne is shorter than the climb in Mende (I think, correct me if I'm wrong.)

I do hope to see Contador try something tomorrow, as that will show that he's still got decent legs. I just don't see him gaining any time tomorrow on Evans/Schlecks, could be wrong.
 
Mar 11, 2009
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Hesjedal, maybe? Definitely one for the Ardennes riders. Schlecks and Contador should have no problem following accelerations, Wiggins might lose ten or twenty seconds.
 
vcampbell said:
Last year on Mende a luxemburger already wanted to be there to suck his wheel, but he failed, and he will fail tomorrow too. If the luxemberugers want something then they need to believe in Cancellara, and never release his hand.
This. I think this climb is too short and too steep for Andy and Fränk. This is more for the explosive guys. And I think Alberto wants to test himself and maybe gain a psychological advantage on Andy.
 
Jun 28, 2011
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LaFlorecita said:
This. I think this climb is too short and too steep for Andy and Fränk. This is more for the explosive guys. And I think Alberto wants to test himself and maybe gain a psychological advantage on Andy.
I dont think he will be too worried if he doesn't put time on Schlecks, he'll be chuffed to get some time back from the likes Basso, VDB, Wiggins, Martin etc, there are many HC climbs to get rid of the Schlecks.

Sorry LaFlorecita, I wanted to quote jobiwan's post.
 
Mar 31, 2010
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outsiders could be samuel sanchez and uran. thinking back of paris nice this year which had a simular finishing climb. gilbert and evans favorites for sure
 
jobiwan said:
We'll see. This year Andy's got Frank,and the Mur de Bretagne is shorter than the climb in Mende (I think, correct me if I'm wrong.)


I do hope to see Contador try something tomorrow, as that will show that he's still got decent legs. I just don't see him gaining any time tomorrow on Evans/Schlecks, could be wrong.
A shorter climb means of course smaller time gains, but the less explosive guys also have less time to get back on the wheel of the explosive (and attacking) rider. Less explosive riders need more time to get on top speed. So once they're on top speed, the climb is almost over and the attacking rider is already far away.
 
sultanofhyd said:
I dont think he will be too worried if he doesn't put time on Schlecks, he'll be chuffed to get some time back from the likes Basso, VDB, Wiggins, Martin etc, there are many HC climbs to get rid of the Schlecks.

Sorry LaFlorecita, I wanted to quote jobiwan's post.
Don't mind. I complete agree with your posts in this topic though.

(OFF: I'm getting really frustrated with all this typing on my phone, stupid touch screen keys are way too small and does some sort of ridiculous auto correction, I have to retype almost every word.)
 

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