Tour Weather - North

[Psalmon]

At this writing it is 97 deg F in Nante, France. That bubble of heat is perfectly placed to move East, and by Saturday the forecast for Utrecht is 95 deg. However, that is the end of the excessive heat in the North.

As the race heads West, the forecast is for sunny, generally dry and warm conditions thru Stage 9. Temps will moderate to low to mid 80s. Cambrai next Tuesday will be 82 for instance.

Winds however will move from a WNW to W headwind/crosswind for Zelande, to a North tailwind for Huy, becoming a North cross wind (8 mph to 24 gusts) for Cambrai and the stages to follow thru the rest of the week.

So who has the best horses for this? With everyone focused on Huy in Stage 3, the pave in Stage 4, the climb in Stage 8, and the TTT, Stages 2 and 6 could be more decisive than any of these.

 

[Jagartrott]

Good topic, as I think the heat could affect the race.
F**k Fahrenheit though. Why do people and countries keep using illogical units? Wikipedia: "Fahrenheit is used in the Bahamas, Belize, the Cayman Islands, Palau, and the United States and associated territories of American Samoa and the U.S. Virgin Islands for everyday applications (although Puerto Rico and Guam use Celsius alongside Fahrenheit as well)." Make the switch already.

 

[DJ Sprtsch]

Amen to that ^

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

from what I heard the heat will stay on for at least 2 more weeks and probably longer

 

[pastronef]

possible showers in Cambrai on Sunday, but that will dry before Tuesday.
dry cobbles
dry cobbles
dry dry please
dry
dry

 

[gerundium]

With this wave of hot weather hitting the netherlands just in time for the TdF i wouldn't expect any echelon action on stage 2. Weather forecasts are now predicting the wind to shift to west on sunday (which is good for echelons in terms of direction) but it probably won't be strong enough.

 

[Swifty's Cakes]

whats wrong with Farenheit? its dead easy to convert anyway. warm weather is 16 in centigrade and 61 in Farenheit, hot weather is 28 centigrade and 82 farenheit.

 

[May0maniac]

possible showers in Cambrai on Sunday, but that will dry before Tuesday.
dry cobbles
dry cobbles
dry dry please
dry
dry

I've heard possible thunderstorms on stage 4, but it's still too early to have an accurate forcast.
I want wet cobbles, if we can't get them in P-R then we should at least get them durning the Tour.

 

[Moose McKnuckles]

Re:

Good topic, as I think the heat could affect the race.
F**k Fahrenheit though. Why do people and countries keep using illogical units? Wikipedia: "Fahrenheit is used in the Bahamas, Belize, the Cayman Islands, Palau, and the United States and associated territories of American Samoa and the U.S. Virgin Islands for everyday applications (although Puerto Rico and Guam use Celsius alongside Fahrenheit as well)." Make the switch already.

This. The Fahrenheit temperature gauge and the entire British measurement system is garbage. Move to the metric system already, US. Good grief.

 

[TMP402]

Re: Re:

Good topic, as I think the heat could affect the race.
F**k Fahrenheit though. Why do people and countries keep using illogical units? Wikipedia: "Fahrenheit is used in the Bahamas, Belize, the Cayman Islands, Palau, and the United States and associated territories of American Samoa and the U.S. Virgin Islands for everyday applications (although Puerto Rico and Guam use Celsius alongside Fahrenheit as well)." Make the switch already.

This. The Fahrenheit temperature gauge and the entire British measurement system is garbage. Move to the metric system already, US. Good grief.

Jesus. Let people keep their nuances. It's what makes the world interesting.

 

[Electress]

Re: Re:

Good topic, as I think the heat could affect the race.
F**k Fahrenheit though. Why do people and countries keep using illogical units? Wikipedia: "Fahrenheit is used in the Bahamas, Belize, the Cayman Islands, Palau, and the United States and associated territories of American Samoa and the U.S. Virgin Islands for everyday applications (although Puerto Rico and Guam use Celsius alongside Fahrenheit as well)." Make the switch already.

This. The Fahrenheit temperature gauge and the entire British measurement system is garbage. Move to the metric system already, US. Good grief.

Jesus. Let people keep their nuances. It's what makes the world interesting.

Amen to that. Nothing like a spot of tolerating others choices and idiosyncrasies and living with a bit of inconvenience.

Nice topic! I'm going to go and look for some synoptic charts! Anyone have an idea of the 'threshold wind' for creating echelons? I'm guessing at least a moderate breeze - say 15-20 mph?

Edit: Yeah, well, I'm not going to get too excited about weather-induced action for a week or more, unless one or other of these systems does something peculiar.

Saturday looks set fair, so those wanting something to mix things up better hope that the current systems slow down beyond their current snails pace so Friday’s warm front arrives later than predicted. More than likely only affect the morning with a bit of drizzly rain, if that, even if it did though.

Sunday, prevailing winds are predicted to be scarcely enough to stir a twig, so the best we can hope for is some late afternoon, onshore breeze to develop and weak frontal instability induced gustiness, coupled with a peloton driving very hard all afternoon and nervous riders. Doubt there'll be anything sustained enough to scare the horses, but we can live in hope. It'll be lovely weather for kites, mind, so expect to get plenty of pretty shots of kite and windsurfers. Riders will enjoy the gentle zephyrs to take the heat off.

Sorry, thunder doesn't look very likely for the cobbles - predicted relative humidity is too low to make it possible. Just enough to be unpleasant. Suggest those wanting last years conditions get out there overnight with a hosepipe – probably will all have evaporated by the time the riders arrive, though.

Not even mildly optimistic for Abbeville to Le Havre, though haven't seen anything detailed or synoptics.

Here's hoping that I'm wrong. I love echelons.

 

[Jagartrott]

Re: Re:

Amen to that. Nothing like a spot of tolerating others choices and idiosyncrasies and living with a bit of inconvenience.

Non-metric usage causes financial losses. Proof:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mars_Climate_Orbiter#Cause_of_failure

I'm a scientist. Units have to be logical and decimal. One kilometer is a thousand metres. A meter is a thousand milimeter, etc - why use miles, yards, feet, inches, pounds, stone, Fahrenheit and other outdated units?

Anyway: the hot weather is indeed expected to continue for some time, and this could cause increased energy drainage, issues with saddle sores, upset stomachs/bowels, and unexpected off-days because of not drinking enough. I hope the teams come well-prepared. Also, some riders just don't function well under heat, and we'll find out soon who among the GC guys copes best.

For Sunday's stage: a sea breeze is not unlikely. Hot land (warms up fast) = local low pressure (hot air rises); cooler sea (doesn't warm up) = local high pressure - air moves from high to low pressure --> wind from sea to land in the afternoon.

 

[WillemS]

Re:

centigrade centigrad

It's actually "degrees Celsius", or Celsius for short.

The formulas are F = 9/5 * C + 32 and, reversed, C = (F - 32) * (5/9).

However, I think it's useful for a forum, in which communication seems to be an important issue*, to use units that most users are comfortable with. My guess is that most of the users here use the Celsius scale, not the Fahrenheit one. Moreover, most European weather sources also report in Celsius. That's why I think it would be the most convenient to stick with Celsius in this thread**. Whether or not the USA, or any other country, should adopt it is not really appropriate in a cycling topic.

The current forecast is that the temperature may rise above 35°C (95°F) on Saturday in Utrecht. Some weather forecasts suggest the temperature could hit the 37°C mark. The main problem is that the race is held in the city, so the actual street temperatures may rise well above that. It makes for interesting situation, not only for the riders, but also for the spectators.

*) Although, sometimes, this place seems to suggest otherwise
**) Another possibility would be to include both Celsius and Fahrenheit measures.

 

[Electress]

Re: Re:

Amen to that. Nothing like a spot of tolerating others choices and idiosyncrasies and living with a bit of inconvenience.

Non-metric usage causes financial losses. Proof:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mars_Climate_Orbiter#Cause_of_failure

I'm a scientist. Units have to be logical and decimal. One kilometer is a thousand metres. A meter is a thousand milimeter, etc - why use miles, yards, feet, inches, pounds, stone, Fahrenheit and other outdated units?

Anyway: the hot weather is indeed expected to continue for some time, and this could cause increased energy drainage, issues with saddle sores, upset stomachs/bowels, and unexpected off-days because of not drinking enough. I hope the teams come well-prepared. Also, some riders just don't function well under heat, and we'll find out soon who among the GC guys copes best.

For Sunday's stage: a sea breeze is not unlikely. Hot land (warms up fast) = local low pressure (hot air rises); cooler sea (doesn't warm up) = local high pressure - air moves from high to low pressure --> wind from sea to land in the afternoon.

I too am a scientist. But that's why SI units exist. (Albeit that base 10 is not necessarily that logical compared to base 12, esp. since we live on what is essentially a sphere.)

For life in general, I welcome the endless, intriguing variety.

As for the forum, people post what they like! Babylonian cubits if the desire takes them.

Edit - Just looking a picture of Tinkoff checking out the cobbles - makes me realise that dust is going to be an issue for all those exercise-induced asthmatics out there.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

Re:

With this wave of hot weather hitting the netherlands just in time for the TdF i wouldn't expect any echelon action on stage 2. Weather forecasts are now predicting the wind to shift to west on sunday (which is good for echelons in terms of direction) but it probably won't be strong enough.

it will definitely be strong enough. west wind in the netherlands is ALWAYS strong enough for echelons. you must've never been there in your life yet

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

Re:

With this wave of hot weather hitting the netherlands just in time for the TdF i wouldn't expect any echelon action on stage 2. Weather forecasts are now predicting the wind to shift to west on sunday (which is good for echelons in terms of direction) but it probably won't be strong enough.

it will definitely be strong enough. west wind in the netherlands is ALWAYS strong enough for echelons. you must've never been there in your life yet

 

[46&twoWheels]

Re: Re:

hot weather favors reptiles...and Froome-like boney body types

 

[Psalmon]

I think it's priceless that when comparing climbers' ability, the measure is Watts/Kilo. LOL

 

[Electress]

So…looks like weather systems have shifted somewhat - frontal instability expected Sat. Risk of thunder and heavy rain in afternoon significantly increased. Could get gusty and unpleasant…what's the order of the riders??

 

[Taxus4a]

It looks hot weather along the first week.

There are some riders very better than others in the rain. Nibali

There are some riders better than other with hot: Valverde, Quintana, Urán, Froome.

There are some riders that are good in all the conditions: Contador, Purito,...(respect Nibali prefer hot, but respect Froome rain)


The wind looks like yes, it will be in the right direction and some strengh on Sunday, slo dangerous stage.

I just hope nobody important in the crashes

 

[Kwibus]

Re:

It looks hot weather along the first week.

There are some riders very better than others in the rain. Nibali

There are some riders better than other with hot: Valverde, Quintana, Urán, Froome.

There are some riders that are good in all the conditions: Contador, Purito,...(respect Nibali prefer hot, but respect Froome rain)


The wind looks like yes, it will be in the right direction and some strengh on Sunday, slo dangerous stage.

I just hope nobody important in the crashes

Quintana first GT was I think vuelta 2012 and he lost heaps of time in the first week because he was suffering from the hot weather.

 

[Dutchsmurf]

Re:

So…looks like weather systems have shifted somewhat - frontal instability expected Sat. Risk of thunder and heavy rain in afternoon significantly increased. Could get gusty and unpleasant…what's the order of the riders??

If we get rain and thunder it will most likely happen long after the last rider finished, like around 9pm or later. The chances of thunder starting before 6pm are close to 0. Which is also to my own advantage, since I have to cycle back home afterwards.

 

[Jagartrott]

Showers now also predicted during the cobbles stage. Still fairly uncertain though.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

Re: Re:

It looks hot weather along the first week.

There are some riders very better than others in the rain. Nibali

There are some riders better than other with hot: Valverde, Quintana, Urán, Froome.

There are some riders that are good in all the conditions: Contador, Purito,...(respect Nibali prefer hot, but respect Froome rain)


The wind looks like yes, it will be in the right direction and some strengh on Sunday, slo dangerous stage.

I just hope nobody important in the crashes

Quintana first GT was I think vuelta 2012 and he lost heaps of time in the first week because he was suffering from the hot weather.

because quintana just returned from colombia. quintana is very good in the heat but he needs time to adapt, since his hom region it is 13 degrees in afternoon max. now he's been in europe for some weeks and he has adapted for sure

 

[rainman]

Predicted wind change from East to West around 1400 local, only a light breeze by the look of it.