TT loss: Nibali against Wiggins Giro 2013

How much time will Nibali lose against Wiggins?

  • Don't care for sky train in giro, gonna rewatch giro 2010

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Jul 29, 2012
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I included the TTT for the sake of determining of how many time Nibali will have to make up on the road.







How much will Nibali lose against Wiggins?
 

airstream

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Mar 29, 2011
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4 minutes. Only genial early solo raid to Tre Cime can help Nibali. I really wonder whether he's able to go all in and to win the giro or lose even the podium
 

airstream

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Mar 29, 2011
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oh boy. seemingly 130 guys who voted for Nibs in the main poll thread gonna vote 1-2min :)
 
Jul 29, 2012
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King Boonen said:
Who's making the "How much time will Nibali gain in the mountains?" poll?
Didn't know Nibali was gonna gain time in the mountains? ;)

I hope so but if there's one thing i've learned in the last 2 years is that sky exceeds all expectations each time at least in GT's.
 
Miburo said:
Didn't know Nibali was gonna gain time in the mountains? ;)

I hope so but if there's one thing i've learned in the last 2 years is that sky exceeds all expectations each time at least in GT's.
I'm including any hilly stage with a reasonable descent in that.

After all, people think he can win it, so he's going to have to win it somewhere...
 
Jul 29, 2012
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theyoungest said:
The TTT: 10 to 20 seconds.
The long TT: 3 minutes.
The uphill TT: 10 to 20 seconds.

So that's about 3.30.
The climb seems to be consistent.

I know you used Contador's climbing in the TT of the giro of 2011 as a basis. But that was like 8 km of climbing orso. Now it's only 20 km. And Contador took 40 seconds (orso) in that climb.

It's gonna be 30 sec i think.
 

airstream

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Mar 29, 2011
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Contador took '40 into Nibali in 8 km of climbing, so Wiggins will take '30 in 20 km of climbing. Could you explain your logic?
 

serfla

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Nov 12, 2012
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According to the poll the breaking point is two minutes (two options each, under and above 2 minutes). But the comments lean to three and more minutes. Three minutes should be the breaking point of the poll and pretty accurate estimation of expected, good and bad tt result for the both.
Two minutes should be Nibali's breaking point. I think he, himself, is seeing it like a margin which would give him a chance for the overall.
 
Aug 16, 2011
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I'd say around 3 minutes. We haven't seen how strong Wiggins is in the ITT this year yet, so if he isn't that strong in it, a little under 3 minutes. If he's as strong as last year, then somewhere between 3 and 4 minutes.
 
Miburo said:
The climb seems to be consistent.

I know you used Contador's climbing in the TT of the giro of 2011 as a basis. But that was like 8 km of climbing orso. Now it's only 20 km. And Contador took 40 seconds (orso) in that climb.

It's gonna be 30 sec i think.
Yeah.... 47 seconds to be precise. Nibali was 13 seconds ahead at the "intermediate."

This one being 20 km and more suited to Wiggins = pure ownage. Contador times two.

1'30 - 2 minutes.
 
Jan 11, 2010
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18-Valve. (pithy) said:
Yeah.... 47 seconds to be precise. Nibali was 13 seconds ahead at the "intermediate."

This one being 20 km and more suited to Wiggins = pure ownage. Contador times two.

1'30 - 2 minutes.
In terms of W/kg, Nibali and Wiggins aren't too far apart. So 2 minutes on a TT where neither should have much advantage over the other seems excessive.
 
Jul 29, 2012
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theyoungest said:
In terms of W/kg, Nibali and Wiggins aren't too far apart. So 2 minutes on a TT where neither should have much advantage over the other seems excessive.
10-20 seconds on the other hand is not going far enough imo.

30-40 seconds is the best guess.

@airstream, Wiggins will never reach Contador's climbing level of 2011, no matter how many marginal gains he gets
 
theyoungest said:
In terms of W/kg, Nibali and Wiggins aren't too far apart. So 2 minutes on a TT where neither should have much advantage over the other seems excessive.
It's a time trial, not a MTF. Big difference.

Their TT "records" speak for themselves. That includes MTTs. If both have similar form the gap will be over one minute guaranteed. I'm guessing > 1'30 based on how much Nibali lost to Contador on the climb itself.
 
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