TT loss: Nibali against Wiggins Giro 2013

[Miburo]

I included the TTT for the sake of determining of how many time Nibali will have to make up on the road.

How much will Nibali lose against Wiggins?

 

[airstream]

4 minutes. Only genial early solo raid to Tre Cime can help Nibali. I really wonder whether he's able to go all in and to win the giro or lose even the podium

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Five to six minutes.

 

[airstream]

oh boy. seemingly 130 guys who voted for Nibs in the main poll thread gonna vote 1-2min

 

[King Boonen]

Who's making the "How much time will Nibali gain in the mountains?" poll?

 

[Ruudz0r]

3.30 - 4 min

 

[jens_attacks]

5 or 6

plus around 4 in the mountains

 

[Miburo]

Who's making the "How much time will Nibali gain in the mountains?" poll?

Didn't know Nibali was gonna gain time in the mountains?

I hope so but if there's one thing i've learned in the last 2 years is that sky exceeds all expectations each time at least in GT's.

 

[King Boonen]

Didn't know Nibali was gonna gain time in the mountains?

I hope so but if there's one thing i've learned in the last 2 years is that sky exceeds all expectations each time at least in GT's.

I'm including any hilly stage with a reasonable descent in that.

After all, people think he can win it, so he's going to have to win it somewhere...

 

[theyoungest]

The TTT: 10 to 20 seconds.
The long TT: 3 minutes.
The uphill TT: 10 to 20 seconds.

So that's about 3.30.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Max 3 minutes.

 

[Miburo]

The TTT: 10 to 20 seconds.
The long TT: 3 minutes.
The uphill TT: 10 to 20 seconds.

So that's about 3.30.

The climb seems to be consistent.

I know you used Contador's climbing in the TT of the giro of 2011 as a basis. But that was like 8 km of climbing orso. Now it's only 20 km. And Contador took 40 seconds (orso) in that climb.

It's gonna be 30 sec i think.

 

[keithmcmahon]

my best guess

17.4km TTT - 20s
54.8km ITT - 2m 30s
20.6km MTT - 20s

 

[airstream]

Contador took '40 into Nibali in 8 km of climbing, so Wiggins will take '30 in 20 km of climbing. Could you explain your logic?

 

[ILovecycling]

From 1'45 - 1'59 precisely.He will win the MTT with 10s to Sir

 

[serfla]

According to the poll the breaking point is two minutes (two options each, under and above 2 minutes). But the comments lean to three and more minutes. Three minutes should be the breaking point of the poll and pretty accurate estimation of expected, good and bad tt result for the both.
Two minutes should be Nibali's breaking point. I think he, himself, is seeing it like a margin which would give him a chance for the overall.

 

[Eshnar]

My prevision say slightly more than 3 minutes overall. Say 3'10''

 

[Afrank]

I'd say around 3 minutes. We haven't seen how strong Wiggins is in the ITT this year yet, so if he isn't that strong in it, a little under 3 minutes. If he's as strong as last year, then somewhere between 3 and 4 minutes.

 

[Peccio89]

15 s TTT
2'30 ITT
40 s MTT

 

[Netserk]

Somewhere between 2'30 and 3'.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

The climb seems to be consistent.

I know you used Contador's climbing in the TT of the giro of 2011 as a basis. But that was like 8 km of climbing orso. Now it's only 20 km. And Contador took 40 seconds (orso) in that climb.

It's gonna be 30 sec i think.

Yeah.... 47 seconds to be precise. Nibali was 13 seconds ahead at the "intermediate."

This one being 20 km and more suited to Wiggins = pure ownage. Contador times two.

1'30 - 2 minutes.

 

[theyoungest]

Yeah.... 47 seconds to be precise. Nibali was 13 seconds ahead at the "intermediate."

This one being 20 km and more suited to Wiggins = pure ownage. Contador times two.

1'30 - 2 minutes.

In terms of W/kg, Nibali and Wiggins aren't too far apart. So 2 minutes on a TT where neither should have much advantage over the other seems excessive.

 

[King Boonen]

I'm saying between 2-3 mins, purely because I don't know how good Wiggins' ITT is this year. I'm probably expecting more though to be honest.

 

[Miburo]

In terms of W/kg, Nibali and Wiggins aren't too far apart. So 2 minutes on a TT where neither should have much advantage over the other seems excessive.

10-20 seconds on the other hand is not going far enough imo.

30-40 seconds is the best guess.

@airstream, Wiggins will never reach Contador's climbing level of 2011, no matter how many marginal gains he gets

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

In terms of W/kg, Nibali and Wiggins aren't too far apart. So 2 minutes on a TT where neither should have much advantage over the other seems excessive.

It's a time trial, not a MTF. Big difference.

Their TT "records" speak for themselves. That includes MTTs. If both have similar form the gap will be over one minute guaranteed. I'm guessing > 1'30 based on how much Nibali lost to Contador on the climb itself.