As promised, I present to what is probably close to 5000 words of me rambling about kids. Let's do some formalities first:
Individual time trial: Monday 23/09, 09:15
Road race: Thursday 26/09, 14:15
It should not really come as a surprise, but the guy wearing #1 is the heavy favourite. This goes for the road race as well as the time trial. It is of course King Albert, Withen Philipsen. Oh, how different things were just a year ago. It was obvious for everyone with half a brain that he was the supertalent, but, and I kid you not, the peloton themselves had no idea. That, of course, will be very different now. He is the man to beat, and everyone knows it. He goes to the front of the peloton? Everyone, go into full panic mode. He goes to take a sip of his bottle? Everyone, go into full panic mode. On the other hand, we have very little reference into his ITT abilities. The European Championships in Drenthe last year, however, is enough reason for me to know he won’t be beaten. On a very comparable circuit he put insane amounts of time into everyone, Nordhagen, Sentjens, Sumpik and Giaimi included. 52 km/h, off the charts.
I will be honest, when the route for the RR in Zurich was announced about a year ago he wasn’t the first name that popped into my head (more on that later), but Valromey changed everything. Despite being twice the size of his competition, he dropped everyone for fun in a race that is basically the Tour de France for juniors. Too much power, too much quality. He had no team whatsoever, yet went home with two stage wins (gifted another), and the overall. Should have won Roubaix, too, if not for the blatant cheating that happened in the chase group on the Velodrome. After the RR + XCO double rainbow in Glasgow he will be aiming for the RR + ITT double rainbow this time around, and I think he will do it. Again.
Unlike Valromey, which were ridden with trade teams, his Danish team will be stacked to the brim. Let’s insert Noah Moller. He will be coming in hot in Zurich, showing tremendous form. He came into this season as a major prospect, having won the Peace Race for U16 and he has not disappointed. White jersey winner in that very Valromey, by the way. Man finished top 5 in just about every stage in Ruebliland, whilst being second lieutenant to Theodor Clemmensen. Wait, Clemmensen? That sounds Danish. Why yes, he too is here. To be honest, when he entered the junior ranks I expected just a little bit more. Like Moller, he is on Auto Eder, and that makes you a major favorite every you enter a race. He is always there but isn’t able to take it home all too often. That makes him very valuable for the reigning world champion, however. If Clemmensen is playing second or third fiddle, your team is off the charts. The fact that we’re only now started speaking of Anton Louw Larsen should speak even more volumes as to how good this team is. He, too, won a stage in Ruebliland. Won a stage in the Peace Race as well, in service of one Albert Withen Philipsen. Finally there is Hugo Rishoj, this is the one decent teammate Withen Philipsen has on his trade team in Tscherning. He is a menace in the Danish national scene, winning races left and right. It ain’t the highest level, but it would appear Withen Philipsen has trust in him. Therefore, I will too. Lastly, and this is strictly for the time trial, there is Carl Emil Just Pedersen. I don’t think he has the power to compete for a medal, but as far as positioning on the bike goes, this boy right is the winner. You could put a glass of water on his back, and once he reaches the finish line he won’t have spilled a drop. Pure time trialist.
So, who is this mystery rider that I deemed to be the favourite when the route was announced a year ago? It should not really come as a surprise, but it is one Paul Seixas. He has been hitting the news lately, but his amount of talent has been obvious ever since he went to battle with Jorgen Nordhagen in Siena in April of ’23. He further confirmed his antics in the Classic of the Alps, where he went toe to toe with Jarno Widar on Mont du Chat, and only had to admit defeat in a sprint. Had two big wars with Andrew August on both Plan d’Hotonnes and Grand Colombier (which he both lost). Well, he came back with a vengeance and has been nothing short of unstoppable this year. He won Liege – Bastogne – Liege, which is not saying much because everyone with some quality was racing the Peace Race at that time. He did however put minutes upon minutes into everyone in Paus de Vaud, which saw a stage finish on Villars-sur-Ollon. Just a week later put even more minutes into Adria Pericas on Mont du Chat. The crown should have come in Valromey, but he never stood a chance. Did go home with a stage win, but he had to settle for silver, behind the unbreakable Dane. He will be competing in the ITT as well, for which I give him no chance. What I would like to add is that Seixas has a quality that isn’t often seen: he can descend like a mad man, and I’ll take any bet he is top 3 at worst in this regard. I’ll be honest, I have no idea whatsoever if that will be of worth here, but it is something to keep an eye on.
So, what is his team like? Well, it’s decent, but it ain’t hitting as hard. The main one I’d like to point out is Aubin Sparfel, a name that should ring a few bells to those who follow CX. During the winter he was in a constant battle with Stefano Viezzi (who is not here, did ride a few races on the road this year and with success). After five races he had built a rather comfortable lead, going into the ultimate cross in Hoogerheide, where a podium would suffice to win it all. It was looking good, fine and excellent, until it didn’t. Viezzi was able to drop him, but more importantly, Sparfel himself was unable to shake off a few others. Still, no problem, he has a very solid sprint, and going to the line in a group of three sprinting for 2nd place, he should be able to at least finish on the podium. Until he didn’t. Sparfel was empty, and with the tiniest of margins got overtaken for 3rd place, by his countryman Jules Simon, losing out in the World Cup by a measly 5 points. Sparfel, angry and all, vowed to come back with a vengeance in Tabor, where the World Championships were held. The inevitable battle with Viezzi would once again keep us amused, the yin and the yang were together once more. It was a constant coming of punches, but going into the final lap to determine the world champion lightning struck again. Unlike the World Cup not the legs would decide the outcome, but material. Sparfel punctured, and he had a long way to go to get his wheel fixed. Gold was gone, and eventually he would lose out on a medal as well. You understand, this boy must be out for blood, given the bad luck he has had in major championships. I would say he has potential to win a medal, but he would need a very specific race and more importantly very good legs. In the events of a closed race, where a group of ~30 riders go to the line together, Sparfel can execute a mean sprint. All the eggs are in the Seixas basket, but France at least has a Plan B if all else fails.
If we’d look at the other Frenchies, look out for Baptitse Gregoire. Yes, this is the younger brother of Romain. Not as good, but pretty decent still. Like his older brother, he, too, was once part of AG2R. Like his older brother, he, too, joined FDJ. That was somewhat inevitable, given that they both hail from Besancon, and cycling has its fair share of nepotism. Anyways, Gregoire is a rider I would deem one of the second line. You have a fair share of riders that you 100% know are going to feature, and then there’s a wave of riders that can do damage in the right situation. Gregoire is one of those, having won Gipuzkoa earlier this year. This is a hard race in the Basque hills that shows he very much fits the profile of these championships. However, he does not quite have the level to compete when all the big guns arrive. He can be of very big help to Seixas, a formula they have successfully executed more than once this year, but his own chances would be close to non-existent, I reckon. The same would apply to the other two riders, Eliott Boulet and Paul Thierry. Therefore, I’d like to shift my focus to Louis Chaleil, who will be competing in the time trial. This is serious medal material. Not a shoe in by any means, but he is part of a group of about 5 to 7 that can compete for silver anywhere to 10th. The form of the day will ultimately determine, but don’t be surprised if he ends up on the podium.
If we’d go solely by numbers, the main attraction here in Zurich will be Hector Alvarez. He, too, is going to Trek. 17 wins under his belt. Many in his home that is Spain, but quite a few in the international scene too. That is what is currently setting him apart from that other golden generation, consisting of Carlos Rodriguez and Juan Ayuso. They too dominated the Spanish roads whenever they showed up, but they weren’t able to keep it up when they had to go abroad. Alvarez has been able to do so, with an overall win in Siena, with an overall win in Budapest, and with a silver medal in the recent European Championships. Truly Mr. Consistency of this season, and I reckon this is a course to his liking. It isn’t too hard, but it’s also not too easy. After a hard race this kid has a big sprint in his legs. In all likelihood he won’t be competing for gold, but this is some serious medal potential right here. After manier year, Spain, land of climbers, have found themselves a gem of a rouleur. Alvarez will be competing in both disciplines, but it is mainly the road race we’ll have to keep an eye on him.
Fear not, for Alvarez is not alone. His arch nemesis, his rival for life, his foe, is here too. This time they will join forces. Spain are bringing the mythical Adria Pericas. Another diamond, this time a climber. He too isn’t afraid to leave his native Spain, and on many occasions he sought challenge elsewhere, mostly in France. Spain has a lot of races, but not many that suit a pure climber like him. While the scoreboard says he lost by 4 minutes, the race itself learns us that he stuck with Seixas for a very long time in the Classic of the Alps. It wasn’t until the later stages of the climb and the following descend that he started to bleed serious minutes, that almost caused him to drop to 3rd. In the queen stage to Ordonnaz in Valromey not long after, it was him, not Seixas, who managed to keep up with Withen Philipsen, ultimately losing the sprint. Unlike Alvarez, I think Pericas would have liked for the course to be just a bit harder, but he can play a major role no doubt. His last dance, before he is off to UAE.
So what, is Spain back to mediocrity after Alvarez and Pericas jump up to the U23 level? Absolutely not, I introduce to you Enrique Marachon and Javier Cubillas. I won’t be typing an epistle like I did for the other two, but I would just like to point out that after the bleak years that followed after the retirement of Purito and Contador (and to some extend Valverde), Spain is finally on the up again, stacking talent. These two likely won’t be competing for anything, but they’ll be there next year. There are many more who aren’t here, like Marco Martin, Hodei Munoz, Jaime Torres and soon, very soon, Benjamin Noval. Spain is back.
What I’ve done for the teams discussed earlier is go over (almost) every rider, allow me to change this. Time for a one-man team. The Czech Republic = Pavel Sumpik. You can forget about the other 4 riders they have at their exposal here. It’s all about Sumpik. Enjoy it, while you can, because in all likelihood he will be stepping up to DSM (devo). Sumpik has been on a tear all year long and the list of results is insane. 17 victories this season, many more podiums. He and Alvarez have been one upping one another all year long, and here, in Zurich, he will find a course very much to his liking. Do not forget, it was Sumpik who beat Albert Withen Philipsen in the very hard raced opening stage of the Peace Race in Litomerice. He is one of the very few I can imagine going toe to toe with Withen Philipsen in these world championships. I
Belgium has had a surplus of incredible generations, but this one is rather meh. It certainly does not help that they are without Aldo Taillieu, who is out injured after crashing in the European Championships. If Belgium is to take home a medal their best chance would come in the time trial, in the name of Jasper Schoofs. The course suits him, and why wouldn’t I take the recent silver medal in the European Championships as a reference for his form? With Taillieu out, Louic Boussemaere on the other hand seems like their best shot shot to get something in the road race. He’s been thereabouts in some major races, but has a hard time winning. I can’t imagine that’s going to change here, but he’s a guy to keep an eye on, as he goes uphill rather well. Matijs Van Strijthem seems their best shot in the event of a closed race that somehow ends up in a sprint, but I don’t see that happening. Edouard Claisse is a first year junior who has shown moments of big promise, but in my opinion he’s a year away from competing. This is a rather short paragraph about Belgium, which shows I don’t have much faith in them, other than the aforementioned time trial for Schoofs. I would have expected Cedric Keppens to be here, but he ain't, so there is not much to say.
While this paragraph ends up somewhere in the middle, this is the last team I am rambling about. It is of course the United States of America. The chosen one is here, a Canadian, Ashlin Barry. Son of Michael and Dede Barry, both professional cyclists, including an Olympic medal. Out of all the phenoms I have seen, nobody came into the junior ranks with more heritage than him. Beating AJ August at the age of 14, beating grown men twice his age, beating full on semi pros since 15. I can tell you right now, all the sweepstakes we have seen thus far, none of them will beat those for Barry. I expect every major team, from UAE to Visma, from Trek to INEOS, from Bardiani to Corratec to throw the sink, the house and the entire mortgage at him in order to join them. You’re probably thinking something along the lines of ‘oh damn, he’s winning’. Well, I don’t see it happening. Make no mistake, ever since he became a junior he has done where he left off earlier. Just winning, and winning, and winning. But things have been tough since July, where he had to abandon Valromey (along with his entire team): covid. Since then, he hasn’t had it easy, and I don’t see it turning around. He was supposed to show up in Keizer der Juniores, but didn’t. Rainbows will be for next year, if the course ain’t too hard. Luckily he ain’t alone, because I like Braden Reitz. He has been showing some decent results as of late, and is a rather promising first year junior on AG2R. On his team I see another interesting prospect, named Peyton Burckel. Yet another first year. Recent winner of the Green Mountain race, where he beat Enzo Hincapie. Top 10 in Saarland too, not too bad. This guy can play. Noah Streif on the other hand did fairly well in Pays de Vaud. Minutes behind Paul Seixas, but still decentl enough.
Ze Germans, jawohl! Wunderbahr! Excuse me, I had forgotten all about them. Unironically actually, for they bring a great team. Main man is Paul Fietzke, a very, very talented rider, as proven evident by his silver medal in Glasgow last year, and one of the big guns in the entire race. He has it in himself to go home with two medals here in Zurich. I have to be fair, I expected him to progress just a tiny bit further, but make no mistake, he is amongst the elite of his generation. But, like so many others, it is lacking that one big fish of a victory. He is always present, but never seems to be able to capitalize. Still in all, he's on my sheet of major favorites. They have more firepower though, but for now Ian Kings remains without a crown. I am looking to him for a big result in the ITT. I don't see him get a medal, but he will be around and about. I didn't expect Louis Leidert to get a medal last year and look how that turned out... While he shares similarities with Mercedes, Benedikt, last name Benz, isn't as quick. I am only kidding, Benedikt Benz is amongst the better first year juniors of the season. Going for something will come a year to early, but it's nice to know Fietzke has some help. Lastly, I would like to point out a personal favorite of mine: Pepe Albrecht, albeit just for his name.
Italy is coming to town and in their suitcase sits a favorite: Lorenzo Finn. Prior to the season I expected him to do great things, as he moved from CPS to Auto Eder. That’s just a blueprint for success, and he did not disappoint. Along with someone like Antonio Tiberi, Finn can be expected to carry the Italian dreams of GC success in the not so distant future. Just an impeccable climber who is in great form. Lunigiana, along with Keizer der Juniores, is the main attraction when it comes to world championships preparation, and we can safely say Finn is going to show up more than ready. Every stage was basically the same: Seixas and Finn drop everybody. Seixas and Finn go to the line together. They shared the victories, as both got a stage win and logically finished #1 and #2 in the GC, with Seixas taking it home due to bonifications. Thus Finn came 2nd, again. He did the same thing last year, but then narrowly lost to another Frenchman, Leo Bisiaux. Finn was also 3rd in Valromey, behind Albert Withen Philipsen and that same Seixas, but like everyone else, just couldn’t keep up when the reigning world champ started doing his thing. He further confirmed his form by winning Aubel – Stavelot after a raid on the final day. I am not quite sure how Finn is going to win this race, as in all likelihood he would have to drop everyone, which, in an outright battle, is not going to happen. Follow wheels and hope for a moment of hesitation is what I’d say. Lucky for him, he won’t be alone, as Italy will also bring Andrea Bessega. Trek have stacked themselves with talent, as he, too, will be joining the academy.
Can’t have a preview without mentioning the Norwegians. Fresh off a European title, about a year away from bronze in Glasgow, they will be looking for more. Felix Orn-Kristoff is the name, the younger brother of Alexander, as everyone probably knows by now. One of the best juniors of his generation. Orn-Kristoff is made for races like these, just a pure classics rider through and through. Question is, will he be able to answer the bell when the other big guns start unleashing hell on the Witikon climb? Despite being on the bulkier side, he is very much capable of getting over hills, but answering that inevitable Withen Philipsen acceleration is another feat. Nonetheless, this is a candidate for silverware. Gold even, for Orn-Kristoff has good speed after a tough race. One of the more impressive wins of this season in general is on his name, when he dropped Bessega and Alvarez straight off the wheel in an uphill sprint in Chiusdino. He has had a deal with Intermarche for the next three years for quite some time, but before stepping up he’ll be seeking a rainbow. He is very much capable of doing so.
Orn-Kristoff won’t be alone in this race, because I am expecting Marius Innhaug Dahl present late in the race as well. Much was expected from Innhaug Dahl when he came into the junior ranks a year ago, and, while it took him a while to really get going, he has now lift off and solidified himself as a serious outsider. He won just about every stage in Driedaagse van Axel, he was 6th in the prestegious Peace Race and 4th in Saarland. Those are results that warrant a prominent mention. Lastly, we cannot forget about Hakon Eiksund Oksnes, a first year junior, unlike the other two. Part of the Visma structure until 2026, to which he was signed before riding even a singular race. I do not know what Norwegian parents are feeding their children, but like so many before, he is allegedly capable of producing huge lab results. There are glimpses of them in races here and there, but I reckon going for a title will be something for next year.
As we approach the Netherlands, we approach the rider who is sitting in my book as one of the finest dark horses of the race: Jurgen Zomermaand. I don’t quite know what to make of his current form, but it’s been great. It is mainly the Volta a Portugal that drew my attention, as he toyed with half the Spanish team in just about every stage. He dropped them for fun, he dominated them in the time trial, and then proceeded to come only a few seconds short of beating Just Pedersen and Chaleil in the Keizer der Juniors time trial. His form, therefore, is tremendous, but the question ultimately is what it would be worth in a more international peloton like this one. One of the few times he matched up with top level competition in the Classic of the Alpes he did really good and finished 3rd behind Seixas and Pericas, albeit 4 minutes down. Nonetheless, I’ve got my eyes on him. For now, as it is looking likely he will be joining DSM next year. Someone who says Netherlands says Senna Remijn. Outright probably the best rider they have and have had for the past two years. This is serious medal potential. Pure classics rider, decently fast. I wouldn’t quite put him in the Alvarez / Sumpik ranks, but he ain’t too far off either. Finished podium in the Peace Race two years in a row, both times by sneaking into the bonifications in the last stage to Terezin. Very few would be comfortable taking him to the line I reckon. He will be seeking a rainbow as well, before heading off to Alpecin in 2025. The most probable Dutch medal, however, comes in the time trial, by name of Michiel Mouris. You might have heard of this name, as he crowned himself European Champion like a week ago, on a course that is very much comparable to the one in Zurich. Mouris has been a name long coming however, as he was of international top level in the U16. Fun fact, two years ago, when Mouris was just 15, he beat one Dylan Groenewegen. Alright, this was in a CX race, but still. He won’t be competing in the road race, but as far as his chances in the ITT go, I’d say this is the first candidate for silver and a potential upset for gold.
Lastly, we of course cannot forget about individuals who hail from countries with less cycling heritage and/or with less of a team around them. The first one is a Pole, Patryk Goszczurny. It won’t be long until Michal Kwiatkowski decides to retire, so they’re going to need a replacement. Goszczurny could very well be capable of doing so. He has been awfully consistent throughout his two years of being a junior. However, he has a big time problem winning. He does get the odd victory here and there, but one looking at his palmares can’t help but notice he is missing the big one. Nonetheless, attention ought to be paid to Goszczurny, for he will be likely to play a role in the finale, but winning seems to be out of the question. His last ride, before he jumps up to Visma Devo. Now, out of everyone here, there is one guy who doesn’t have to worry about this future for the next 5 years, and that is Kasper Borremans. That name sounds Belgian, but he is in fact Finnish. Signed by Bahrain until 2029(!). Two years at the Devo team, two years at the pro team, and I presume with several options to jump up earlier if ready to do so. I’ll be honest, I find it hard to place Borremans here. He seems like one of those 1 or 2 * favorites, someone you don’t want to keep off your list because of how good he is, but neither good enough to be placed amongst the ousiders or medal candidates. Regardless, a very fine rider indeed. Maybe this next kid deserved his own paragraph, but I can’t be bothered. I am talking about Seth Dunwoody, a serious contender for silverware in the ITT. Kind of weird to say, since he lost the Irish nationals by a very big margin, but my faith remains. It remains to be seen where he’ll end up next year for there has been no confirmation as of yet, but being on the Cannibal team one can assume his destination would be Bahrain. I should start typing about Erazem Valjavec now, but I just can’t be bothered. Put him on your watch list, very good rider. Potential medal.
Australia are the defending champions in the ITT, with Oscar Chambo. Chamberlain is too old now, and thus their title is to be defended by someone else. It had been coming, and now it’s here: Wil Holmes is the world record holder on the individual pursuit, by an insane margin. Ridden just a few months ago. I can’t recall how many seconds and I am too lazy to look it up now, but I can assure you it was a matter of full seconds. 5, if memory serves me right. Of course, the IP is only 3 kilometers rather than the 26 we’ll be seeing here, but still. Funny thing about that IP is that his world record came in the semi-finals, and he went on to actually lose the gold medal race. Holmes’ most recent race on the road was in Cantabria, Spain. Worth noting, since he beat Hector Alvarez in the opening prologue. Other than that, he ain’t some heavy favorite on Monday. He can time trial, but I don’t think Australia will hold the ITT crown for much longer. Alex Eaves is worth noting too, good rider. Not far from Australia, and one of the individuals I’d like to mention, is Reef Roberts, from the beautiful country of New-Zealand. He is the double New-Zealandic champion, as well as the Oceanic ITT champion. What is interesting is that Roberts hasn’t really done any international races, mostly sticking to the local ones in France in Spain. Therefore, we do not know what his worth is in an international peloton. Since landing in Europe in August, however, he has been on a rampage. He beat Seixas by a minute in Boucles de l’Oise, he held his own against Alvarez in Cantabria and Ribera del Duero. Like I said, there is very little reference as to what his exact level is in this sort of peloton, but I would not be surprised if he is present in the final of the road race and ends up top 5 in the ITT. He needs to be signed by a big team, asap.
Now, the reason why I mentioned Ribera del Duero specifically, is because it offers a nice little bridge to my next individual. The name is Henrique Bravo, a Brazilian. Bravo is a mountainbiker with very, very little experience on the road. Certainly not in this kind of peloton. In order to get the best possible preperation for the XCO world championships in Pal Arinsal, he decided to participate in Ribera del Duero, a stage race of three days. The second stage saw a MTF on Laguna Negra, a decent climb, nothing too special. Bravo, however, went for a kill. He put a full minute into Alvarez, he put two minutes into Roberts and three(!) minutes into Pericas. The GC seemed done and dusted, but Alvarez and Roberts tried to do the impossible. They came 14 seconds short of overthrowing Bravo, who ended up winning GC. It’s the only reference we have, and he certainly doesn’t look bulky enough to make any sort of statement on the flat that follows after the climb in Zurch, but let it be known that he can fly uphill. I am getting bored, so I will just name some riders, rather than give them a speech: Ron Rooni and Oliver Matik (ITT) (Estonia), Gerard Mora (Andorra), Juan Diego Quintero (Colombia), Patrick Casey (Ireland), Erazem Valjavec (Slovenia), Linus Larsson (Sweden), Nicolas Halter (Switzerland). Damn, I forgot Great-Britain. Well, in summary: Finlay Tarling is not Josh Tarling. Seb Grindley is really good, Elliot Rowe is really good. I know very little about Dylan Sage other than being the national champion. Just never rides international races, so we could be in for a surprise.
If you got to this point, good. If you didn't, good as well.
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