Uran Ultimo Hype Thread

[Waterloo Sunrise]

http://home.trainingpeaks.com/races/team-sky-races/paris-nice-2011---stage-6---rigoberto-uran.aspx

Read that and then imagine what happens when he works out how to deliver that power sensibly in a mountain stage.

Top 5 Vuelta this year, next year, the world.

 

[hrotha]

I like Urán, I really do, but it's not fair that he gets hyped while everybody piles on Kreuziger, saying he's stagnated.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

I like Urán, I really do, but it's not fair that he gets hyped while everybody piles on Kreuziger, saying he's stagnated.

You did read the bit about 7.1W/Kilo right?

I like Romain too, but unless he magically loses 5 Kilos there's no comparison in potential.

 

[Kwibus]

I really hope he does well, but I have yet to see anything remarkable on the road from Uran.

He's good, but I haven't seen anything special yet.

 

[Lanark]

So this hype thread was created because of a 37th place in a Paris-Nice time trial? Should we also open threads for the 36 guys who finished in front of him?

 

[hrotha]

You did read the bit about 7.1W/Kilo right?

I like Romain too, but unless he magically loses 5 Kilos there's no comparison in potential.

I meant Urán has yet to have a true breakthrough, because he has improved little since he was 21. Of course he has a huge potential (not sure about GTs and big climbs, that's more Duarte's territory; but I see him becoming great in hilly classics and the like).

 

[ingsve]

So this hype thread was created because of a 37th place in a Paris-Nice time trial? Should we also open threads for the 36 guys who finished in front of him?

You could if they also only weighed 54kg. How many riders that light have you ever seen being even close to decent in a time trial?

 

[Lanark]

You could if they also only weighed 54kg. How many riders that light have you ever seen being even close to decent in a time trial?

Brajkovic is a little over 3 kilograms heavier, and not just close to decent in a time trial, but really good. All this potential is great, but if you can't show it on the road, it's useless.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

It's not that Uran did nothing. He mainly had some terrible falls that took him out quite some times. The Colombian disease.

Take for instance last Paris Nice you were discussing. He fell there again, one of the first stages, and was not fit after that.
Typical for Uran really.

Besides his fall he did the following

2007 - Tour de Suisse stage win + 9th in GC (as 20 year old)
2008 - 3rd Lombardia, 2nd and 5th in Deutschland tour stages, 2nd Volta a Catalunya
2009 - 5th Tour de Romandie
2010 - 14th Tirreno, 35th Giro, 7th Tour de Suisse, 32th Vuelta, 12th Lombardia (mainly helper)
2011 - 7th Ruta del Sol, 3rd stage Paris Nice.

Especially in his first two years as a professional he showed major potential in my opinion. Finishing on the podium of a classic like Lombardy as 21 year old is massive, so were his performances in Catalunya and Germany (before he fell).
In 2009 and 2010 he was often forced to help Valverde/Rodriguez cs at Caisse d'Epargne and never got a free role.

I expect big things of Uran this year.
And I think Lanark really does him short. There are very few riders who can podium a monument and a small tour like Catalunya at age 21.

 

[Lanark]

I'm not selling him short. I like the guy as well, but he hasn't really shown that much progression since his first season. For the last couple of years people predict Uran's final breakthrough every time, and every time their prediction falls short there, all the usual defence mechanisms are started (he fell (who doesn't?), he has to work for other people, he was sick). I would like for Uran to make a big step in his development, but I remain sceptical, and some test figures from some barely decent time trial aren't going to confince me.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

It's hard to show progression when you're mainly being forced to work on the front or keep Valverde out of the wind.

 

[ingsve]

Brajkovic is a little over 3 kilograms heavier, and not just close to decent in a time trial, but really good. All this potential is great, but if you can't show it on the road, it's useless.

Hmm, the figue I had seen for Brajkovic was 65kg but looking at the Radioshack homepage it says 58kg. That's still 4kg and also 4 years of age that Brajkovic has on Uran and more importantly he rides for Radioshack that focuses a lot on time trialing while Utan has neglected his time trialing the last few years.

 

[Escarabajo]

It's not that Uran did nothing. He mainly had some terrible falls that took him out quite some times. The Colombian disease.

Take for instance last Paris Nice you were discussing. He fell there again, one of the first stages, and was not fit after that.
Typical for Uran really.

Besides his fall he did the following

2007 - Tour de Suisse stage win + 9th in GC (as 20 year old)
2008 - 3rd Lombardia, 2nd and 5th in Deutschland tour stages, 2nd Volta a Catalunya
2009 - 5th Tour de Romandie
2010 - 14th Tirreno, 35th Giro, 7th Tour de Suisse, 32th Vuelta, 12th Lombardia (mainly helper)
2011 - 7th Ruta del Sol, 3rd stage Paris Nice.

Especially in his first two years as a professional he showed major potential in my opinion. Finishing on the podium of a classic like Lombardy as 21 year old is massive, so were his performances in Catalunya and Germany (before he fell).
In 2009 and 2010 he was often forced to help Valverde/Rodriguez cs at Caisse d'Epargne and never got a free role.

I expect big things of Uran this year.
And I think Lanark really does him short. There are very few riders who can podium a monument and a small tour like Catalunya at age 21.

It is the first two years that got me thinking. He fell in the Deutschland tour which I thought he had a good shot at the podium or actually the win.

I see that he has problems with:
1- Falls.
2- Consistency (although some people might argue that they are due to the falls)

I am yet to see his full potential.

I wish he had the same focus and determination as Duarte.

 

[Escarabajo]

http://home.trainingpeaks.com/races/team-sky-races/paris-nice-2011---stage-6---rigoberto-uran.aspx

Read that and then imagine what happens when he works out how to deliver that power sensibly in a mountain stage.

Top 5 Vuelta this year, next year, the world.

Oh, and of course as with every other previous stage this week Rigoberto set new best power values. Today he set a new peak 5-minute power value of 419w along with a new peak 30-minute power value of 392w.

For a 5 minute full power that equates to a VO2 max number bigger than 90 ml/kg/min (???) Actually higher than 93 which is Lemond number.

Using this formula: (419/54)*12-3.3

Is this formula a bad approximation? This formula is intended for the full 5 minute
power.

 

[ingsve]

I see that he has problems with:

2- Consistency (although some people might argue that they are due to the falls)

Well, it's very common that you see inconsistency in very light riders. Even a guy like Pantani wasn't really a highly consistent GC rider. He could usually dominate mountaintop finishes but only a few occasions could he keep it together and finish high on GC as well. I think inconsistency is something you have to live with when your that light.

 

[Winterfold]

ingsve the evidence of lighter riders being inconsistent bears out your statement but I am curious why you think that is?

Surely consistency is a mental thing but falling off is a skills thing - why would lighter riders have less skills?

I know descending is harder for lighter riders, but I am curious what people think the reasons for lighter riders being inconsistent are?

Unless is it is because they are all hispanics with emotion and temperament issues (joke)

that 5 minute power figure for someone that light is really quite scary

I hope he doesnt drop Wiggo too often in the mountains this year...

 

[bobbins]

Rides for Sky = won't go well this year.

 

[ingsve]

ingsve the evidence of lighter riders being inconsistent bears out your statement but I am curious why you think that is?

Well, it's mostly an observational thing rather than something that is inherently true for all lighter riders. However there are certain things that could explain the observation, if the observation indeed is true and not just an example of confirmation bias. I suspect that if one were to look at the weight of all the top 10s in all GTs in the last 10 years then there will probably very few riders weighing less than 60kg. There are a few exceptions like there always is but my hypothesis is that lighter riders are less represented in top 10s in GC than they are in top 10s in MTFs.

For one thing a very light rider can by virtue of having such an optimal climbing body put on great rides in a mountain without having the same powerful motor that a heavier climber needs to have to contest the same mountains. In order to be consistent even a lighter rider needs to have a good motor and good recovery skills as well of course but this explains why we sometimes see light riders that crop up and go some really terrific rides that they only on occasion can duplicate.

Lighter riders also seem to have more difficulty when it gets very cold and rainy.

As mentioned lighter riders often have a disadvantage in downhills but they also tend to have more problems in tricky conditions on the flats like in cases of crosswinds or the occasional cobbles so that can very easily remove them from the GC.

Also very light riders tend to be the classic type of climber that can switch tempo really well in a climb as opposed to defensive riders that need a steady pace. At the same time if a mountain is ridden with a team setting up a very high but steady pace that can sometimes mean that the climber like that gets dropped whereas they could follow more easily and even dominate perhaps if the mountain was instead ridden with lots of attacks mixed with periods of slower tempo. This cound of course be attributed to riders that have less of a motor than some of the other climbers.

If you put all this together I think it can go a long way to explaining the observation that light riders tend to be a little more inconsistent.

 

[Kazistuta]

Is Rigoberto Uran the new Tommy D???

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

http://home.trainingpeaks.com/races/team-sky-races/paris-nice-2011---stage-6---rigoberto-uran.aspx

Read that and then imagine what happens when he works out how to deliver that power sensibly in a mountain stage.

Top 5 Vuelta this year, next year, the world.

lol, uran is not 120 pounds he is 64 kg which is 139 pounds.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

It is the first two years that got me thinking. He fell in the Deutschland tour which I thought he had a good shot at the podium or actually the win.

I see that he has problems with:
1- Falls.
2- Consistency (although some people might argue that they are due to the falls)

I am yet to see his full potential.

I wish he had the same focus and determination as Duarte.

duarte doesn't exactly have focus and determination, nairo quintana has(he truely believes he will win the tour de france) but most colombians have typical latin way of thinking. duarte was seen as the laziest rider in colombia and also the most talented except maybe henao.

his crash in tour of germany was areal problem because he also lost his incredible downhil skills he used to have, he won the euskal bizkleta itt at age 20 a few months before where in the massive rain in downhil he overtook 3 guys!! and won the itt before names as nozal and santos gonzalez, he was like I sayd 20 years old! uran has stagnated like everyone who had to work for valverde and also they don't train your itt like they do at sky. one thing though he should become the leader in stageraces and not a helper and he may also need some mental coaching as he's not exactly very smart/intelligent person.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

Well, it's very common that you see inconsistency in very light riders. Even a guy like Pantani wasn't really a highly consistent GC rider. He could usually dominate mountaintop finishes but only a few occasions could he keep it together and finish high on GC as well. I think inconsistency is something you have to live with when your that light.

when you are light you can become sick more, rujano is excellent example of this, uran is not light like I said he's build more as a stocky sprinter than a climber with his 173 and 64 kg, which is common for many colombian riders btw

henao is even more a sprinter with 168 and 61 kg while duarte is 166 and 55 kg, or quintana with 167 and 52 kg are very light guys and therefore would automatically suffer more in europe. botero with 175 and 75 kg and pena with 179 and 70 kg were no climbers at all in colombia but were strong itt guys and in europe like every colombian could climb well, just look at a sprinter like duque in europe.

 

[ingsve]

lol, uran is not 120 pounds he is 64 kg which is 139 pounds.

Well, the figure that the Team Sky site uses is 54kg and you would guess that they have accurate figures about the weight of their riders wouldn't you?

 

[Winterfold]

Ingsve thx for your answer

All those things make sense but in my opinion I would eg expect light climbers to be consistently bad on windy cobbled rainy races so I guess I took inconsistent to mean genuinely unpredictable for psychological reasons when you never know which athlete will turn up.

Wayne Rooney would be a good example - cyclists seem a bit more even keeled - Vino I guess is a rider who blows hot an cold

 

[Spine Concept]

I'm no expert at these power values, but - to put things into perspective - how do these numbers compare to other young super talents?