Vuelta a España - Stage 16: Gijón - Cotobello 181.4 km

[icefire]

Vuelta a España - Stage 16: Gijón - Cotobello 181.4 km

Route map:

Profile and weather forecast:

The descent of Alto de la Cobertoria always recalls me Zülle's words after his crash there in 1993 when he was chasing Rominger: "road, water, azz, floor, bike, flowers". No rain foreseen for tomorrow, though.

 

[roundabout]

Hope somebody goes for it on the first big climb. But it will probably be just Sastre.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Moncoutié and Rabuñal to try to get in the break.

 

[icefire]

Detailed profiles of the main climbs:

1) Puerto de san Lorenzo

2) Alto da Cobertoria

3) Alto de Cotobello

 

[icefire]

Caisse will try to be in the break for the team classification

 

[taiwan]

Potential here for people to blow up big time and fall out of contention.

 

[The Hitch]

I really hope Nibali cracks tomorow.

 

[taiwan]

I really hope Nibali cracks tomorow.

Why the ill-will towards the Shark?

 

[ak-zaaf]

GC snoozefest until 5km to go =/

 

[roundabout]

That san Lorenzo is one nasty climb. Still hope that Caisse, Katusha and Sastre will put the pressure on early.

 

[royalpig180]

Everyone keeps talking about the time Rodriguez and Mosquera need to have over Nibali before the TT...

What about how much time Nibali needs to have over Mosquera (and to a lesser extent, Rodriguez) before the Bola del Mundo?

 

[icefire]

Everyone keeps talking about the time Rodriguez and Mosquera need to have over Nibali before the TT...

What about how much time Nibali needs to have over Mosquera (and to a lesser extent, Rodriguez) before the Bola del Mundo?

Taking today's results as a guide I'd say that 1 minute should be enough to account for the 20 seconds time bonus.

 

[The Hitch]

Why the ill-will towards the Shark?

Dont really have much against Nibali but

1 to make it more exciting
2 Nibali has a Giro or 2 in his future. For Mosquera and Purito, this is their last chance.

 

[Christomir]

Why the ill-will towards the Shark?

Yeah, for some reason a few people here seem to hate him. :|

 

[Christomir]

Dont really have much against Nibali but

1 to make it more exciting
2 Nibali has a Giro or 2 in his future. For Mosquera and Purito, this is their last chance.

For Mosquera - maybe true, but why Purito? He's just 31, so should have 2 or 3 more shots at a Vuelta, if he targets that and doesn't waste effort in the Tour.

 

[The Hitch]

Yeah, for some reason a few people here seem to hate him. :|

The forum was firmly in his corner at the giro. Many were upset that he had to work for Basso. And there were about 2 or 3 times as many users online then.

 

[theswordsman]

Nibali said he's just going to defend his lead again and look to the Time Trial (but if he planned to attack, I doubt he'd announce it).
Rodriguez says he needs to go for it. It's the day before a rest day, so I'd like to see a battle. I hope Sastre comes out to play this stage or on Bola del Mundo. I don't know if he's racing at all after this (three grand tours is enough), so he might as well go all out on Saturday, if he still has an all out.

I'm still rooting for Nibali for the overall, but hope Roche stays strong and Danielson moves up (he cost 2/150 of my VDS budget).

 

[indurain666]

Dont really have much against Nibali but

1 to make it more exciting
2 Nibali has a Giro or 2 in his future. For Mosquera and Purito, this is their last chance.

+1, I really like Nibali, but I would love to see an attacking climber such as Mosquera or Purito winning the whole thing.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Dont really have much against Nibali but

1 to make it more exciting
2 Nibali has a Giro or 2 in his future. For Mosquera and Purito, this is their last chance.

dude the guy is 31, and this is his first year as a true leader.
It most certainly is not his last chance.

 

[Sophistic]

If the trend of the last 2 days continues, then Tondo is gonna blow up big time today. Depends on the dynamics of the race but if it comes to a climactic showdown on the last climb, i think Mosquera is not only gonna win but also take significantly more time from Nibali and Rodriguez than yesterday.

 

[jens_attacks]

if they can't isolate nibali from his teammates on alto de la cobertoria,nibali has this in the bag.if they can do it,they can put some good time on the sicilian.so xacobeo and katusha should kill themselves on that climb to drop every liquigas guy.again,probably tondo will drop like a stone.i'm curious about velits,the biggest surprise by far.

 

[Jan the Man]

I agree that it will be dangerous if they isolat Nibali, but I think it might be difficult for people to do that without isolating themselves as well.

Kreuziger is looking stronger and should be amongst the best 15-20 riders so should be able to hang for a while. Having said that, I think that given the steepness of some of these climbs, this could be nibali's most difficult day. Purito and Mosquera need to take a minute out of him today, he will almost certainly take at least 90 seconds over them in the 45km TT.

 

[TourOfSardinia]

Squalo

Nibali is an all-round just-good-enough type of rider
(I bet Wiggins envies him!) :

Climbing:
Nibali always looks uncomfortable attacking at the front
and
seems best when reacting to contain attacks of others
- I remember he came back from dead on a steep hill in a recent TdF.
When he said he feared the first attack by Sastre
(pronounced Sass-tray Mr Eurosport!)
more than that by Mosquera yesterday - I think he really meant it
- he knows he could never match a true KoM like a Sastre in form,
while he can contain lesser mortals.

Descending:
he is able to attack
- or at least recover v.well any time he may have lost at the last pass - but that's an insurance policy that does count for any of these MTFs.

Today looks a great stage:
I hope there are attacks on the first two climbs
and that the TV coverage/streams start early enough to witness them!

 

[Kwibus]

GC TOP 3 prediction:

1. Nibali
He will probably hang on again today. Possibly losing time to Mosquera and maybe 1 or 2 others riders, but no idea who that would be. Nothing serious. He could lose the red jersey to Mosquera, but nothing to worry about with the TT ahead.
2. Rodriguez.
I expect that he will crack today and lose several minutes.
3. Mosquera.
He's going to be the best of the GC riders again. All I can hope for him is that they keep the break short so he could actually win this stage. He really really deserved a stage win.

 

[Jamsque]

Frank still spitting game about winning the Vuelta, even with only five team-mates left and poor climbing form. If he is serious about this he needs to put minutes into Nibbles and J-Rod today, and even then it's a long shot.