Vuelta a España - Stage 20 San Martín de Valdeiglesias - Bola del Mundo 172.1km

[The Hitch]

Vuelta a España - Stage 20 San Martín de Valdeiglesias - Bola del Mundo 172.1km

And so it has come to this

The Main Event

In the blue corner, weighing in at 65 kg.Measuring at 177cm tall. From Cacherias Galicia, Spain, The nearly man, the surprise, the Cinderella story,
Ezequiel “Eze” Mosquera

And in the Red corner, weighing in at 65 kg, measuring 180 cm. From Messina Sicily, Italy. The Liquigas leader, the young pretender, the Don,
Vinchenzo “the Shark” Nibali.


For Ezequiel Mosquera, 34 years young, this is his last chance. He simply has to attack. He has come close before, but it was never this close. He probably wont come this close again. There will be no second chances. 50 seconds is what he needs. Most doubt he has the strenght to do this.
But there is hope yet. He has been strong in the mountains. Perhaps strong enough. Dont forget he has taken time on all 3 high mountain stages. The mountains are his playground. He will be in no mood to lay down, not at this stage. Perhaps this will prove to be enough to move the Galician into cycling history. THis will be hard. This will be painful. And make no mistake about it, if Mosquera is to win, he will need to pry the Red jersey from his rivals cold, dead hands.


And to win he will have to beat the shark. The prodigy, the prospect. The Sicilian. It is he who is in pole position. Nibali has not been the king of the mountains, but he has been good enough. His opponents have not come close to taking the time they need. With the stage set on the outskirts of the capital, he will be favourite to stay within distance and prove that he is worthy. The events of Toledo have shifted the things into the red corner somewhat. The 25 year old has the advantage. 50 seconds. A big advantage. Perhaps big enough. His opponent has not taken half this time from him in any stage so far. He needs to get all of it. Make no mistake Nibali is the favourite. Deffense will be his game. All he has to do is stay with his challenger. If he can manage this he will only need to reach out his hand and a historic 1st grand tour will be his.

Ladies and Gentlemen.

Destiny Awaits

 

[ttrider]

Moncoutie for the stage from a break,
Nibali to just cling on: Closest Grand Tour finish ever...

 

[Sophistic]

Overhyped, the real climbing doesnt start until 12km to go and although the last 3k are steep, overall its just 8,5% for the 12k.
Yes, its a tough climb which could overhaul the GC but i fear that this isnt going to be as epic as many expect.

 

[luckyboy]

Just hoping Nibali/Kreuziger explode spectacularly.

 

[The Hitch]

Official prediction : Carnage

 

[hrotha]

Headwind for the final climb? Ohnoes.

 

[icefire]

Pics of the last climb here and here.

Photo finish of the stage :

 

[roundabout]

The forecast hasn't been right about the wind for a few days now.

 

[ttrider]

its not over-rated the initial slope are gentle, if the average % was taken from 13km to go when i believe the climb really starts it would be 9 ish for 13km with the hardest at the top on unmade roads.....its essentially a cat 1 with an offroad xorret del cati on top! the differences will be big!

 

[icefire]

Nibali has confirmed on TV that he hasn't seen the climb, but after doing Zoncolan, Corones and Mortirolo he's not worried about steep gradients.

And Mosquera said he lost his chances to be ahead today because he was right behind Schleck when he had his incident.

 

[icefire]

Nibali said on TV he hasn't seen the climb. His fault -I would say- as they spent the second rest day at 2hrs drive from Navacerrada. He said that after having done Zoncolan, Corones and Mortirolo he's confident in his ability to climb over big gradients.

 

[Descender]

Mosquera to attack right after El Ventorrillo. Drops Nibali early, takes a one minute lead, runs out of gas in the last 2km, Nibali recovers and secures the red jersey.

 

[oboy77]

The climb is a monster. Watch Alberto training there... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cB2sZTtkUB0

 

[hrotha]

I don't think Mosquera will move until after Navacerrada, unless Nibali is obviously in trouble.

 

[icefire]

I'm puzzled by the different views on the best way to climb this.

Many say that the steep gradient requires climbing on the saddle so the rear wheel doesn't lose grip. Among those who support this view is Alberto Contador who is seen here doing the opposite of what he says.

Some others say that because of the steep gradient, if you climb on the saddle it's your front wheel that will lose grip.

All pics and videos of the climb I've seen display riders standing on the pedals, but they were made on dry conditions. Tomorrow they'll be surrounded by clouds so they'll have a wet path and hardly any visibility further than 50m ahead.

 

[The Hitch]

I really dont see Mosquera taking a minute on this. I really dont see it. Maybe if the other climbs tire Nibali out. Possibly if one of 3- 9 attack earlier. But if they go into the Bolla straight, i cant see him taking a full minute. I aslo doubt he will have the tremendous luck of getting a stage victory and hence 20 second bonus when he crosses and then have 2 others sweep the other bonuses from Nibali.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Overhyped, the real climbing doesnt start until 12km to go and although the last 3k are steep, overall its just 8,5% for the 12k.
Yes, its a tough climb which could overhaul the GC but i fear that this isnt going to be as epic as many expect.

You forget that the 19km of climbing, even if not steep, and even if below 5% until 12km to go, is going to seriously exhaust everyone.
And then the thoughest part, is right at the end. Average % says nothing then.
They're all very tired and then have to climb 3km at percentages almost constantly above 12% with many stretches closing to 20%.

Nothing overhyped at all. But you'll see tomorrow.

 

[joy118118]

Nibali said on TV he hasn't seen the climb. His fault -I would say- as they spent the second rest day at 2hrs drive from Navacerrada. He said that after having done Zoncolan, Corones and Mortirolo he's confident in his ability to climb over big gradients.

He didnt take vuelta route serious.

 

[khardung la]

I'm puzzled by the different views on the best way to climb this.

Many say that the steep gradient requires climbing on the saddle so the rear wheel doesn't lose grip. Among those who support this view is Alberto Contador who is seen here doing the opposite of what he says.

Some others say that because of the steep gradient, if you climb on the saddle it's your front wheel that will lose grip.

Nah, the front wheel does not loose grip. The problem is the back wheel if one climbs out of the saddle AND it is wet. I don't mean wet like in raining hard, just merely wet. It is probably wet now although I did not check it the last days.

 

[khardung la]

I really dont see Mosquera taking a minute on this. I really dont see it. Maybe if the other climbs tire Nibali out. Possibly if one of 3- 9 attack earlier. But if they go into the Bolla straight, i cant see him taking a full minute. I aslo doubt he will have the tremendous luck of getting a stage victory and hence 20 second bonus when he crosses and then have 2 others sweep the other bonuses from Nibali.

For me the Alto del Leon and first pass over Navacerrada are underrated by many. They are both first category and will punish the legs of the riders after 3 weeks anyway. El Leon has some stretches of 10-12 % that really hurt.

Then after the first pass of Navacerrada is all down and then up, not really a flat of more than 3-4 km in the middle. The last climb to Navacerrada-Bola del Mundo have 3 perfect places to attack: the curve in El Ventorrillo about 5 km to the top of Navacerrada, 10%; the last km of Navacerrada 10% for a whole kilometer; obviously the beginning of Bola del Mundo, being so narrow and steep.

 

[jens_attacks]

saxo,katusha and cervelo should rip the field apart on navacerrada with 50km to go.if they will crack kreuziger and velits,it will be so interesting.if they won't try,they're a bunch of pusssies.

 

[The Hitch]

For me the Alto del Leon and first pass over Navacerrada are underrated by many. They are both first category and will punish the legs of the riders after 3 weeks anyway. El Leon has some stretches of 10-12 % that really hurt.

Then after the first pass of Navacerrada is all down and then up, not really a flat of more than 3-4 km in the middle. The last climb to Navacerrada-Bola del Mundo have 3 perfect places to attack: the curve in El Ventorrillo about 5 km to the top of Navacerrada, 10%; the last km of Navacerrada 10% for a whole kilometer; obviously the beginning of Bola del Mundo, being so narrow and steep.

Mosqueras best tactic will probably 3 accelerations. Weve seen this can kill Nibali.

In Asturias Everytime someone attacked Kreuziger and Nibali just kept going at the same pace. THey think everyone will falter. But now Nibalis job is to mark Mosquera. If Eze attacks Nibali has to follow, and cant keep the same pace. Mosquera should attack once taking Nibali with him. Wait a few minutes, then bam again. Knowing Nibali its possible he will feel confident and try it himself once as well. Anyhoo the point is not to get a gap, but to hurt Nibali going into the final 3 km.

Do what he did in Andora.

Nibali can crack. But he has to be made to crack. That is the lesson.

 

[icefire]

For me the Alto del Leon and first pass over Navacerrada are underrated by many. They are both first category and will punish the legs of the riders after 3 weeks anyway. El Leon has some stretches of 10-12 % that really hurt.

Then after the first pass of Navacerrada is all down and then up, not really a flat of more than 3-4 km in the middle. The last climb to Navacerrada-Bola del Mundo have 3 perfect places to attack: the curve in El Ventorrillo about 5 km to the top of Navacerrada, 10%; the last km of Navacerrada 10% for a whole kilometer; obviously the beginning of Bola del Mundo, being so narrow and steep.

El León (7.8 kms / 6.86%) and the North side of Navacerrada (7kms / 7.5%) would be 2nd category climbs in other GTs.

And I don't recall Navacerrada South being 'decisive' other than 1989 when Delgado almost lost the Vuelta on his home roads to Fabio Parra and he had to 'hire' the services of Ivan Ivanov to help him limit his losses.

 

[hrotha]

Mosqueras best tactic will probably 3 accelerations. Weve seen this can kill Nibali.

In Asturias Everytime someone attacked Kreuziger and Nibali just kept going at the same pace. THey think everyone will falter. But now Nibalis job is to mark Mosquera. If Eze attacks Nibali has to follow, and cant keep the same pace. Mosquera should attack once taking Nibali with him. Wait a few minutes, then bam again. Knowing Nibali its possible he will feel confident and try it himself once as well. Anyhoo the point is not to get a gap, but to hurt Nibali going into the final 3 km.

Do what he did in Andora.

Nibali can crack. But he has to be made to crack. That is the lesson.

Interesting. What about Nibali's tactics? Can he afford to let Mosquera go and control the gap like he did at the Lagos? Of course that's what worked best for him, but then there was a break taking up the time bonus and an ITT afterwards to put some time on Mosquera.

What would you guys do if you were Nibali? Personally I'd keep up the whole "pace yourself, don't follow Mosquera" thing.

 

[Climbing]

All in all this should be a very interesting stage.
Edit: I don't know about Nibali and Liquigas tactics... I leave that to them, they are pro nonetheless, so they are not going to take my advice anyway!