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Vuelta a España Vuelta a España 2022, stage 9: Villaviciosa - Les Praeres, 171.4k

The second half of the Asturian mountain block. Just like the previous stage, it should be all about the MTF, and for the first and only time this Vuelta it's a climb of insane gradients. Will it be all about Vine and Evenepoel again? And will we actually see all the action happen?

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There are barely 20 kilometres between the start and finish as the crow flies, and so we have a long loop through eastern Asturias to find some distance. The first 48 kilometres are close to the coast and rolling, then the real climbing starts with Alto del Torno.
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We pass the start of the road to Lagos de Covadonga just after the descent en route to the other Vuelta classic in the area, Mirador del Fito, unusually from its easier southern side.
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The next climb, Alto de la Llama, is a lot easier.
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We then return to Villaviciosa for the intermediate sprint and the easy Alto de la Campa.
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There's a flattish section into Nava, from where the MTF starts. Just like with Fancuaya today (and the 2018 stage finishing here), there's a little descent into the bottom of the climb and it's narrow this time.
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I'd rather have Lagos de Covadonga every year or every other year than this.
Covadonga is a great climb. The problem is that its location is extremely difficult to do anything but a one-climb stage there. We got very fortunate last time out and that was a great stage, but the majority of Covadonga stages over the years have had Fito (from its harder side which is already a debatable cat.1, giving it cat.1 from Arriondas as they are doing in this stage is ridiculous) as the only major obstacle of any relevance beforehand; the only significant climb you can put closer is El Torno, but since Cangas de Onis tends to be the municipality paying for the finish it goes through there, which it wouldn't if El Torno was used. The discovery by the race of Collada Llomena/Los Bedules and Collada Mohandi increases options significantly, but you still can't do much about that false flat from Soto de Cangas to the sanctuary (as an aside, I'd quite like to see a finish at the sanctuary/basilica one time, maybe with a cronoescalada to Los Lagos the next day) and unless the Asturian government fully paves the descent from Següencu to Cabielles I don't see that problem going away any time soon.
 
Steep climb with sections up to 25% but its less than 4km.

Seems a bit more on the explosive side, especially with the road flattening out a little at the end. where 1.2km from the finish to 700meter for the finish averaging 7%, followed by a steep section for 200m. So i think if you want to launch you can either go on this section, or just after the steep section.

Again seems like a Roglic finish (but what doesn't). He was a lot better today, so stage 6 might have been a worse day due to the weather transition) I think he has a good shot if he can keep himself at the front. Not expecting a major GC shift here since its only 4km. (unless someone has a bad day ofcourse).
 
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Remco did look in control yesterday and recovered much much better than Roglic after the stage.
Its a pity remco is missing the acceleration to not have the others in his wheel... i'm pretty sure Mas and roglic wouldn't be able to keep the same pace as Remco if they can't draft. Dropping people in your wheel is just much harder and i don't see how Remco can overcome this like he is riding now.
 

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