Vuelta a España Vuelta a España 2024 2nd rest day thread: Who will win?

[QueenStagiaire]

After the race seemed wide open just seven days ago, it has tilted a certain way now.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

There's only one answer, is there? Mas will remain the eternal second, the closest thing to Poulidor the Vuelta will ever have, and third place could still go a lot of ways but I think Landa's relative consistency will just about beat O'Connor's head-start, Carapaz' panache, and their closest competitors' time-trialing.

 

[Berniece]

Still hope Landa but voted Roglic as the logic option

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Still hope Landa but voted Roglic as the logic option

In absence of Evenepoel and Van Wilder, there is no Logic option

 

[topcat]

O'Connor by 19 seconds.

 

[Netserk]

O'Connor looks set for a lower podium place. I think he can keep Landa and Carapaz behind him.

1. Rogla
2. Mas
3. O'Connor
4. Landa
5. Carapaz

 

[Ilmaestro99]

Previously the last 2 polls I voted for Landa, bevauze he's my favourite, but after today it's hard to see him at the podium even, a lot of ground to make up for a guy who isn't attacking and can't time trial

I will go for Richie 'el jaguar' instead with another daring and long range attack, now that landa is losing his carisma and panache, carapax 'la locomotura' is the man for real fans of the sport

 

[YavorD]

There's only one answer, is there? Mas will remain the eternal second, the closest thing to Poulidor the Vuelta will ever have, and third place could still go a lot of ways but I think Landa's relative consistency will just about beat O'Connor's head-start, Carapaz' panache, and their closest competitors' time-trialing.

I wouldn't say that Mas is nailed in second this year. O'Connor still has 2.23 and I rate him as slightly better in the TT.
There's still 3 MTF's and Mas needs to win close to a minute on every single one.
Possible but not easy.
As for Landa with TT in mind he is close to 4 minutes behind. Hard to see it happening. Since stage 6 Landa only gained 2.44 on O'Connor.

 

[Lequack]

Chat GPT says

 

[YavorD]

It's actually kind of what I expected. The ones looking at Bora to close O'Connor are the ones that should have closed it.

Also as hard as this Vuelta is, it doesn't really give the chance to create big gaps (except for stage 9) unless your rival implodes massively. And 6 minutes (for Mas and Landa) was a lot.

 

[Bolder]

Still voted Carapaz, long shot but why not?

Rog is probably going to win but BOC impressed me today.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

I wouldn't say that Mas is nailed in second this year. O'Connor still has 2.23 and I rate him as slightly better in the TT.
There's still 3 MTF's and Mas needs to win close to a minute on every single one.
Possible but not easy.
As for Landa with TT in mind he is close to 4 minutes behind. Hard to see it happening. Since stage 6 Landa only gained 2.44 on O'Connor.

Mas put 13 seconds into O'Connor in the first TT. I'm also expecting O'Connor to have at least one day where he really struggles, probably worse than he did on Ancares, and every remaining mountain stage would cost him more time than on Ancares even if it isn't worse.

 

[YavorD]

I really don't agree with extrapolating so much from the first ITT. It's the worst O'Connor has done in years.

Agreed. Carapaz beat him in that TT. And I don't think anyone considers Carapaz better in the TT than O'Connor.

 

[SHAD0W93]

With Roglic’s form looking up and down, looks like we have scenario two. Then Almeida’s DNS removed my second favorite and personal pick to win, meaning my third favorite before the start Adam will have to pick up the slack.

In regards to Roglic’s stock trending down; Bora has massively dropped the ball with O’Connor and Adam in the breaks, had his poor showing today, and that there’s no one on Bora would could take Kuss’s place and save the day if today happens again on a MTF. But even with all of this, besides O’Connor, the gap Roglic has over the others is what around you’d expect at this stage. This makes Roglic the number one favorite no matter what the odds say in my opinion but he has a tough ask to overcome his team deficits and back issues. If he does it could be his best GT win honestly.

Next I’d have Adam, O’Connor, Mas, Carapaz, and Landa as favorites in that order. Any of these 6 will win and they’ve all had their ups and downs. Almeida getting sick has definitely increased the odds for O’Connor, Carapaz, Mas, and Landa while decreasing Roglic’s a little due to Roglic being the biggest threat in the TT. If Roglic has another or worse day like today, the others have no fear riding together and bury Roglic so the TT is less of a worry. Team wise they all seem to be comparable at this time, which is great for the race.

My heart says final podium will be: Adam, Roglic, Mas.
My head says final podium will be: Roglic, Adam, Mas/O’Connor.
Meme final podium will be: O’Connor, Carapaz, Landa.


While the other riders I listed; Quintana and TGH are a non factor and look to help their teammates, Carlos Rod could be a threat for the podium but top 5 is most likely his limit, Kuss like I thought would be a non factor for the overall and has his work cut out for him if he wants to even top 5, and Cian might top 30, if he’s lucky.

Since the first rest day Roglic has firmly secured his gap over the others and closed O’Connor down. Now it just looks like a three horse raise between the top 3. Baring a mishap or form swing, it’s only a question of when Roglic will retake the lead to close out this Vuelta. I think O’Connor will maintain podium and second is a possibility. Mas will have to ride hard in order to over come O’Connor for second or be that much better to pass Roglic up. Meme win would be O’Connnor hanging on by the time penalty to win.

 

[hfer07]

While O'Connor has done a fantastic job "defending" his lead, there are still left 3 monster mountain stages - the last 2 the hardest before the final time trial - those will be enough for Roglic to wipe away that minute plus *unless of course Primoz blows up at the end*

 

[Devil's Elbow]

I really don't agree with extrapolating so much from the first ITT. It's the worst O'Connor has done in years.

True, but you do need to consider that Mas always pulls out his best TTs at the Vuelta. Definitely don't think it's justified to blindly assume O'Connor will take meaningful time on Mas in the final TT.

 

[slim charles]

I really love this Vuelta so far. Really entertaining, and open. Even though it's clear that one guy is stronger than the rest, even he could have a not great day and lose some time (or not gain enough time). Still, I agree with the most that Roglič will win it.
I'm fairly convinced that O'Connor will be 2nd, but obviously wouldn't be shocked if Mas overtakes him.

And Landa and Carapaz will no doubt try something but not sure they will actually manage to get it done

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Rogla is in pole position, he managed to overcome the majority of the gap to O'Connor and is ahead of the rest. He just has to make sure he doesn't lose time to Mas, Carapaz and co in the mountains and that he's at least close to O'Connor before the TT: he may not even need it but he should comfortably beat his rivals in that TT and win the race as a result.

 

[Gigs_98]

If the big guns are missing this race Mas could win it but once Roglic's back was fine this was always gonna be his to lose. Even though 2nd isn't the result a guy like Mas should aim for I still hope he'll manage to get at least that. The guy always finishing 2nd is not the legacy anyone wants but for a guy of Mas' talent it will probably the maximum his legacy can become. And who knows, one of these days, right when nobody expects it 2nd might just turn into 1st. It's cycling, weird things can always happen.

 

[CyclistAbi]

I voted for Primož Roglič.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

I voted for Primož Roglič.

That seems like a smart and rational assessment based on the state of the race and the relative strengths of the riders involved, Roglic is no doubt the most likely winner in an objective sense. It's good to see a take that is not based on fanboy biases, we need more unbiased posters like cyclistabi in the forum

 

[CyclistAbi]

Did Rogla ever lead in a race thread poll like that? Looks like not even the parents of most of other riders voted for them.

Massive lead.

 

[RJH]

Previously the last 2 polls I voted for Landa, bevauze he's my favourite, but after today it's hard to see him at the podium even, a lot of ground to make up for a guy who isn't attacking and can't time trial

I will go for Richie 'el jaguar' instead with another daring and long range attack, now that landa is losing his carisma and panache, carapax 'la locomotura' is the man for real fans of the sport

Actually a miracle Landa is still so good.

But agree, podium will be hard.

 

[Boes]

Chat GPT says

GC WOUT HYPE BACK ON TRACK

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Guys, I just realised what a Godless sport we are.

God rested on Sunday. We rest on Mondays. We want carnage on the sundays

but who will explain this to @noob ?