Vuelta a España Vuelta a España 2024: First rest day thread

[Devil's Elbow]

Time to have less consensus than we've ever had in one of these polls!

 

[AmRacer]

Florian for the white.

 

[Squire]

I'm keeping my Mas vote from before the race, and I suspect us believers will have more company now. But O'Connor really looks like a tough nut to crack now, and as suspected, it seems like yesterday was partly down to the tactical error of following Roglic from the bottom of the climb.

 

[Netserk]

Rogla and O'Connor in the best position, but I think Yates is back at his best and will win this bike race.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Mistakenly voted for Landa, but come on, this is Enric territory. Best climber in the race, now his team just needs to set him up. First opportunity on Ancares on Friday!

 

[zlev11]

Mas is going to win

 

[RedheadDane]

Vino would need to make up almost two hours, so that would be a surprise...

The others? I've given up trying to predict anything in this race!

 

[Valv.Piti]

Cruxeires on Wednesday. Although that should be more about hold on for dear life to Roglic.

But Mas is more punchy than he often gets credit for and he shouldn't be afraid to use that.

Sure, but thats not where he wins it, neither is Manzanadas or whatever

 

[solo80k]

It's by far the most interesting GC battle in 2024 thanks to O'Connor, Roglic and Pogacar's absence. 😁

 

[Jumbo Visma Fan :)]

Still sticking with my pre race pick of Roglic but this is wide open. I would not be putting money on this race if I was a gambling man.

 

[Coffeeplanter]

Not just 2024.

This is preobably the wildest first week I have ever seen. There's been so man big swings already.

The only one coming close is the 2015 Vuelta, when we had Dumoulin and Chaves emerging out of nowhere, but that one eventually boiled down to some of the most locked down racing I've seen.

First week, agreed, but overall we need about 18 more twists and turns before the race can tie the mythical Giro of 2010.

 

[Bolder]

Carapaz. He knows how to win a GT.

 

[FroomeWagon]

OConnor is, for the first time, the betting favorite.

OConnor 7/4
Roglic 11/4
Mas 7/2
Carapaz 6/1
Yates 9/1
Landa 25/1
Gall 50/1

 

[cen]

I just hope for no crashes and for a competitive race to continue.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Mistakenly voted for Landa, but come on, this is Enric territory. Best climber in the race, now his team just needs to set him up. First opportunity on Ancares on Friday!

You can now change your vote, forgot to turn that option on.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

One moment you think a guy looks good, but then he loses 45 seconds on a not too difficult climb or can't handle the heat or gets covid or has arrogant or useless teammates or clueless DSes, or his back is hurting, or he crashes in a descent or gets attacked by a deer. I'll be sticking with Vino for now.

 

[will-10]

Isn't it great when we don't know who is going to win?

Sticking with O'Connor for now, I think Roglic and Mas should, in a perfect world, still have enough road to overhaul him, but feels like both are bound to scupper their own chances in some way before Madrid.

 

[Netserk]

OConnor is, for the first time, the betting favorite.

OConnor 7/4
Roglic 11/4
Mas 7/2
Carapaz 6/1
Yates 9/1
Landa 25/1
Gall 50/1

Implied chance between them:

31.53 % | O'Connor
23.12 % | Rogla
19.27 % | Mas
12.39 % | Carapaz
08.67 % | Yates
03.33 % | Landa
01.70 % | Gall

 

[RedheadDane]

Carapaz. He knows how to win a GT.

Roglic got some experience in that departement too.
And maybe if UAE kidnaps Simon, and forces him to ride as Adam for the remainder of the race....

 

[Tricycle Rider]

At this point I'm kinda hoping Quintana will break the top 40 barrier (lol), and otherwise Carapaz for the win!

 

[Gratemans]

The others? I've given up trying to predict anything in this race!

This. And that's exactly what makes this an awesome Vuelta.

 

[Gigs_98]

I just don't buy that Yates and Carapaz are back at their best. I can totally see why people are picking Mas now but I think this was more of a one off performance by Roglic and not too indicative of how the comparison between the two will look like for the rest of the race. I think O'Connor hanging on became more likely today though.

 

[Taxus4a]

I just don't buy that Yates and Carapaz are back at their best. I can totally see why people are picking Mas now but I think this was more of a one off performance by Roglic and not too indicative of how the comparison between the two will look like for the rest of the race. I think O'Connor hanging on became more likely today though.

I think Roglic could put some seconds or bonus at stages when more than 30 people get the foot of the last climb, and lose time at the hardest ones.

O Connor we will see, I thinbk he go well with hot, but in general will be hot hort weather as well in the nord. No so extreme, it depends the days. He is a fourth place Tour rider. That is a lot. But I am with landa and I hope no.

 

[SHAD0W93]

If Roglic goes and is in good shape he should be the favorite and winner. If his shape is poor or he doesn’t go it’ll be a fight between Roglic (if present), Almeida, Adam, Landa, Mas (if he improves like usual for Vuelta), and a surprise rider. I think UAE is going to repeat what Visma did last year winning all GTs. Hope Quintana, TGH, Carapaz, and C Rod find the shape to challenge for the win. Kuss best placing is fifth. If Cian goes it’ll be an interesting team battle.

With Roglic’s form looking up and down, looks like we have scenario two. Then Almeida’s DNS removed my second favorite and personal pick to win, meaning my third favorite before the start Adam will have to pick up the slack.

In regards to Roglic’s stock trending down; Bora has massively dropped the ball with O’Connor and Adam in the breaks, had his poor showing today, and that there’s no one on Bora would could take Kuss’s place and save the day if today happens again on a MTF. But even with all of this, besides O’Connor, the gap Roglic has over the others is what around you’d expect at this stage. This makes Roglic the number one favorite no matter what the odds say in my opinion but he has a tough ask to overcome his team deficits and back issues. If he does it could be his best GT win honestly.

Next I’d have Adam, O’Connor, Mas, Carapaz, and Landa as favorites in that order. Any of these 6 will win and they’ve all had their ups and downs. Almeida getting sick has definitely increased the odds for O’Connor, Carapaz, Mas, and Landa while decreasing Roglic’s a little due to Roglic being the biggest threat in the TT. If Roglic has another or worse day like today, the others have no fear riding together and bury Roglic so the TT is less of a worry. Team wise they all seem to be comparable at this time, which is great for the race.

My heart says final podium will be: Adam, Roglic, Mas.
My head says final podium will be: Roglic, Adam, Mas/O’Connor.
Meme final podium will be: O’Connor, Carapaz, Landa.


While the other riders I listed; Quintana and TGH are a non factor and look to help their teammates, Carlos Rod could be a threat for the podium but top 5 is most likely his limit, Kuss like I thought would be a non factor for the overall and has his work cut out for him if he wants to even top 5, and Cian might top 30, if he’s lucky.

 

[perico]

Enric Mas will win this bike race...

Maybe?

If he is as strong as he has looked on the first uphill stages, then I will stick with Mas, as long as he is able to put up a large gap before the final TT

Roglic and Mas are synomous with this race: Roglic as the multi winner; Mas as Spanish Poulidor.

2018: Mas finished 2nd to Yates; was actually his best chance to win the race had he not decided to stick to Valverde's wheel on the stage Yates attacked and took his winning margin. Somewhat forgotten is that at the time, Mas was still a member of Quick Step and was the best TTer out of the GC contenders- a skill that has faded since signing with Movistar. Roglic didn't start
2019: Roglic finished 1st; Mas didn't start
2020: Mas finished 5th behind Roglic and cracked early
2021: Mas finished 2nd behind Roglic- year of Superman throwing a superfit.
2022: Mas finished 2nd behind Remco after Roglic crashed out.
2023: Roglic finished 3rd; Mas finished 6th, fading after his lack of training due to his TDF crash


Mas is obviously not known for his aggressiveness, but has been quite aggressive in Spain over the years, especially in 2021 and 2022. However, his attacks have always been forgotten because he never wins stages due to his lack of sprint, and the fact that Roglic has always countered them, with the exception of 2023 when team tactics blocked Roglic before Angliru.

Today was the first time that Roglic could not follow Mas uphill since 2020. It's amazing to think about but Roglic has never let Mas up the road without following him, and considering they are still close to each other on GC, he wasn't marking O'Connor today and let Mas take off. That leads me to conclude that Roglic may not have recovered from his back injury at the TDF, particularly on stages with multiple climbs. One climb stages could be managable, but harder stages could be a breaking point.

The only catch is that Mas or Carapaz will need to put real time between themselves and Roglic before the TT. There are some brutal stages coming up where Roglic will have to defend over multiple Cat 1s before a an uphill finish.