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Vuelta a España Vuelta a España 2024, stage 10: Ponteareas - Baiona, 159.6k

The Vuelta trades the heat for normal temperatures, the high mountains for the medium ones, and one of Superman López' favourite parts of Spain for the one he hates most.
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It's another uphill start for the riders, sadly they become less common from here on out. Alto de Fonfría is long and mostly gradual, but irregular enough to hide some steeper sections.
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After the climb, the riders more or less double back on themselves to follow the Miño valley, which forms the border between Galicia and Portugal, towards the coast. This makes for a long flat intermezzo, before things get a lot harder in the final two-fifths of the stage. All of this should be familiar terrain for the peloton: the triptych of climbs they will tackle were the first three KOMs of the day on the equally baffling and spectacular final mountain stage of the 2021 Vuelta. First up is the easiest of the three, Alto de Vilachán.
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Things go up a notch after that on Alto de Mabia, with some pretty testing lower slopes.
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The final KOM is Alto de Mougás, where the peloton exploded in 2021.
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The road used as a descent ends right in the middle of Baiona, but right on the edge of town the route veers west. Now I can imagine why Unipublic don't want a descent lasting until past the flamme rouge, but a 10k detour is just too much and dampens the hopes of GC action. The one benefit of the additional loop is that the small climb up to Cabo Silleiro is taken in. It's the final 1.2k of the profile below.
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The final kilometres are flat and follow the coast, placing racing below the desires of both the local tourist association and Adam Hansen in this instance.
 
No sure if this is one of the ones Thomas de Gendt has circled ? Does anyone know. The downhill finish could help him ...Also Ion Izagirre likes this kind of finish.

But Soler looks very strong , he should be up there. Maybe Jack Haig too now there is no Tiberi to look after
de Gendt has got Stage 20 marked out (last ever road stage for him and up and down all day).
 
Nice stage design that ordinarily would be a nailed on breakaway with little GC action but the current GC situation is well calibrated to provide for a far more chaotic stage with others taking inspiration from Adam Yates and trying to vault themselves back into contention.

Sivakov could be a good candidate to look to move and is a stronger rouleur than most of the top 15 do can handle the middle phase of the stage best.

Bora should try to pressure Decathlon with Lipowitz up the road though Roglic might not fancy that risk with GC Kuss PTSD.

Skjelmose should thrive in these medium mountains and it is surely time for trademark GC clawback moves from Guillaume Martin.
 
Very hard stage to predict but I suspect it'll be raced tougher than the market suggests (WVA is second favourite but has very little chance in my opinion).

Alto de Mougás is no joke. In 2021 it was the third to last climb and, as Devil's Elbow pointed out, the race blew apart, leaving only five riders in the GC group: Roglic, Yates, Mas, Mader :( and Haig.

Haig hardly ever wins, and he might not be quite at that 2021 level right now, but with Tiberi out of the race he still looks a decent chance from the breakaway.
 
Everyone is talking about who will send whom up the road, seeing this as a medium mountain stage for tactical moves, but honestly, the way the gc is looking we might actually see a peoper battle from the peloton. Idk if anyone will plan to do something but there are a lot of riders right now whose weakness would immediately result in attacks by others and perhaps most importantly it doesn't seem too far fetched those guys will actually show a weakness.
 
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Everyone is talking about who will send whom up the road, seeing this as a medium mountain stage for tactical moves, but honestly, the way the gc is looking we might actually see a peoper battle from the peloton. Idk if anyone will plan to do something but there are a lot of riders right now whose weakness would immediately result in attacks by others and perhaps most importantly it doesn't seem too far fetched those guys will actually show a weakness.
Yeah it should be. 5km 8% is enough to do damage. If you're Mas or Roglic, seems like a nobrainer to me to just blast off and see what happens if you feel good, teammates or not. Still, teammates up ahead will always be way preferable here.

The Roglic of stage 8 should just drop O Connor here and hopefully get a few guys with him.
 
Everyone is talking about who will send whom up the road, seeing this as a medium mountain stage for tactical moves, but honestly, the way the gc is looking we might actually see a peoper battle from the peloton. Idk if anyone will plan to do something but there are a lot of riders right now whose weakness would immediately result in attacks by others and perhaps most importantly it doesn't seem too far fetched those guys will actually show a weakness.
Good point. There are good reasons that Bora, AGR, Movistar, and maybe even EF would want to control the stage to protect or improve their GC position, although one or more will probably play chicken with o’Connor and Roglic to get those teams to do more of the work. But the danger for any of those teams gambling is could see one of the good climbers who are 5-6 minutes down get a slug of time back like Carapaz did yesterday.
 
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