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Vuelta a España Vuelta a España 2024, stage 11: Padrón - Padrón, 166.4k

The better of the two back-to-back mid-mountain stages. Sure, the climbs don't chain together as well, but the gradients and the proximity of the final climb to the finish line more than make up for it. While the break is favoured once more, I do expect the GC riders to spring into action towards the end this time.

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Now that map isn't very clear, so let me walk you through the route. We start and finish in the town of Padrón, not in the centre but on its outskirts, at the headquarters of the aluminium and PVC processing company Cortizo. The first lap is the longest, heading out west over some uncategorised climbs, then looping back over the first KOM at Puerto de San Xusto and through O Sisto (where there will be an intermediate sprint later on) before the first passage of the finish. On the second lap, the riders strike northwest for the steep slopes of Puerto Aguasantas, then rejoining the route of the first lap for the descent shared by both KOMs. This second lap is done almost twice, however on the second time around, just after the intermediate sprint in O Sisto, the riders head away from the finish and onto the final lap, with some rolling terrain before the tricky final climb up Puerto Cruxeiras and the (reasonably straightforward) descent back into Padrón.

Or a TL;DR: big red lap, blue lap, blue lap again, small red lap.

And the climb profiles:

Alto de Bexo
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Alto do Confurco
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Puerto San Xusto
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Puerto Aguasantas (x2)
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Puerto Cruxeiras
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Aluminios Cortizo are the main sponsor of the CC Padronés, one of the longest-running and best-established Spanish amateur teams, running since the 50s and sponsored by Aluninios Cortizo since the mid-80s. Marcos Serrano is the main manager there these days, and riders like Jesús Blanco Villar, 90s Kelme veteran José Ángel Vidal, and late 2000s Xacobeo climbing specialist Ezequiel Mosquera have come through the team, while Burgos-BH have picked up a few of their most interesting young riders from Aluminios Cortizo too, like Éric Fagúndez and Sérgio Chumil.
 
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I dunno. Looking at the series of stages immediately following this one... I kinda wonder if the GC guys won't chill again.

Unless someone is obviously in trouble.

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Well, for Stage 12 and especially 14 I find it hard to see any meaningful time gaps happening because these climbs are under 5% on average and the final two kilometers of 12 at just over 7% are actually the steepest part of them. Also, the GC guys are four minutes behind. They can‘t just sit there twiddling their thumbs, O‘Connor most likely won‘t blow up out of nowhere.
 
Well, for Stage 12 and especially 14 I find it hard to see any meaningful time gaps happening because these climbs are under 5% on average and the final two kilometers of 12 at just over 7% are actually the steepest part of them. Also, the GC guys are four minutes behind. They can‘t just sit there twiddling their thumbs, O‘Connor most likely won‘t blow up out of nowhere.
Ya, 14 in particular doesn't look like that much. Fair point about them being behind. Just thinking it's a lot of MTF in a row. Was just thinking that Roglič has already had a not-so-great day, wondering if he might ride more conservatively than we expect tomorrow.

I wonder how they're all calculating it. There are potentially a LOT of minutes on 13, 15, and 16. Plus 19 and 20 are brutal.
 
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Composition of the break will be telling - apparently top 10 guys tried yesterday (stage 10) but were chased down, so a repeat on stage 11? AG2R would like that but guys down on GC will now doubt try, later if not sooner on the stage. Maybe a standard Vuelta break of a couple of Spanish guys followed by a later chase by GC hopefulls.
 
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I wonder, how good Carapaz will be from now on.

His performance on stage 9 (attacking at the first climb and finish still two minutes ahead of the GC group) was impressive.

At stage 4 and stage 8 he always tried to stay with Roglic for as long as possible, but blew up in the end and lost then more time and he lost more time, than if he had driven a little more conservatively. I think same as O`Connor, he should not try to follow every acceleration, but should therefore try to gain time on the longer climbs..
 
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