• The Cycling News forum is still looking to add volunteer moderators with. If you're interested in helping keep our discussions on track, send a direct message to @SHaines here on the forum, or use the Contact Us form to message the Community Team.

    In the meanwhile, please use the Report option if you see a post that doesn't fit within the forum rules.

    Thanks!

Vuelta a España Vuelta a España 2024, stage 16: Luanco - Lagos de Covadonga, 181.3k

The return of the Vuelta’s most holy ground. Last time round, we saw long-range attacks and Roglic sewing up the GC. Will we be in for a repeat of either, both, or neither?

2f170



53e4d


The first 70 kilometres are along the coast, taking in the same uncategorised climbs that the Vuelta uses any time it traverses the area. The three ones of any sort of note are El Infanzón, El Pedroso and Venta del Pobre. Of the former two, I have a profile, the latter is 5.0k at 2.8% as per this site.

infanzon.png


pedroso_o.png


Then, it’s time for that other classic Vuelta climb in this region. Mirador del Fito. This will be the 23rd time the Vuelta has been up here (albeit sometimes from the easier southern side), putting it level with Covadonga… for a couple of hours. It is of course most famous for being the climb where Miguel Indurain climbed off his bike for the last time in the 1996 edition.
miradorfitoporlorone%20perfil.jpg


In 2018, Unipublic included the little back road up Alto de Bada to break up the flat between Fito and Covadonga. Even though there’s much further to go before the MTF this time round, it makes its return.
san-martin-de-bada-romillin.png


Immediately after this, the riders reach Cangas de Onís, the base for Covadonga, but there’s a very important loop to be done before we get to the latter. Collada Llomena from this side is comfortably the hardest pass that can be put in the second half of a stage to the famed lakes, and as such it had been near the top of aficionado wishlists until Unipublic finally introduced it to the race in 2021. Roglic and Bernal then immediately proved everyone who had been calling for its inclusion right by ripping up the race on the second of two ascents, the move that decided the race. This time round, there’s only the one ascent, but then again we’ve had a fair bit of climbing before that…
colladallomenaporviegoperfil.jpg


Upon returning to Cangas, it’s time for the second most-used MTF in GT history. As has been the case for some years now, the finish is no longer at Lago de Ercina, but at the visitor centre, meaning the traditional profile only matches up for its first 12.6 kilometres. If you want the profile with the new finish, there’s a link here, but it lacks the detail of the one I’m showing in this OP.
altimetria-lagos-de-covadonga.jpg
 
I don't expect anything before Covadonga, except for UAE going nuts and it leading to comparatively little. I see that a light tailwind is predicted from Cangas de Onis all the way up to Covadonga, but I doubt it will mean the difference.

That said, everyone apart from O'Connor and Roglic should want to attack and get away on Llomena, cause to me it seems the most obvious way to snatch the podium away from O'Connor. And if you go, I'm sure that Roglic will follow and play ball. Even guys further down can just get the right split in the group and take a good amount of time.

Especially considering Decathlon aren't great and if you time it right nobody other than Gall should be with O'Connor over Llomena. Strong domestiques are unlikely after Llomena in general, even for the lower top 10, except for Cattaneo.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: abbulf
I don't expect anything before Covadonga, except for UAE going nuts and it leading to comparatively little. I see that a light tailwind is predicted from Cangas de Onis all the way up to Covadonga, but I doubt it will mean the difference.

That said, everyone apart from O'Connor and Roglic should want to attack and get away on Llomena, cause to me it seems the most obvious way to snatch the podium away from O'Connor. And if you go, I'm sure that Roglic will follow and play ball. Even guys further down can just get the right split in the group and take a good amount of time.

Especially considering Decathlon aren't great and if you time it right nobody other than Gall should be with O'Connor over Llomena. Strong domestiques are unlikely after Llomena in general, even for the lower top 10, except for Cattaneo.
Vlasov and Lipowitz.
 
Hard to see O'Conner holding on. But that is what we thought before stage 15. How long are the steep sections on Cavadoga? O'Conner lost 38' on much steeper gradients on Cuitu Negru. Roglic or Mas are most likely to win this stage. I doubt a break wins this time.
La Huesera is 700m at 14% as per the profile. That's enough to get the gap, and then there's like 6km of riding with some easier climbing and false flats and downhills to the finish.

Covadonga isn't normally a climb of big gaps, groups tend to stick together after La Huesera, and if eveyrone is tired like in 2021, nobody may get away.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Cookster15
at this point, Movistar & Bora are going to work hard to knock O'Connor out the top GC, so they'll be pushing hard pace on La Collada climb all the way through the last climb before la Huesera where the decisive attack always take place......

I don't believe both Movistar & Bora would allow the breakaway to make it, thinking of the time bonuses as a decisive factor for the overall victory...
 
If the first two climbs were a bit easier then there could be a scenario for WVA where he could out-sprint Vine get max points on those climbs then sit up and hope it's a GC day at the top of Covadonga. but I think those first two climbs are still too much for WVA to compete with Vine. more interesting will be if Castrillo (9 points back of WVA and Vine) wants to try to compete for it with Vine. As someone who backed Vine a few days ago at 12-1, I certainly hope not.

As for the stage, I'm again up in the air about whether it's GC or breakaway. People who are saying it's breakaway because Bora won't chase are ignoring the fact that EF and Soudal need to take time off O'Connor for the podium (Carapaz 4th at 2:44 ang Landa at 3:05) and they can't bank on getting anything at all back in the time trial. The trouble for them both is they can't go long range because neither Roglic nor Mas would allow it. Kuss could be allowed to long range though.

But it's still probably for the breakaway. Vine and Poole are the obvious ones. Poole was super impressive the way he closed to Castrillo in the last 500m a few days ago. But I favour Vine. There have now been two stages where he has sacrificed himself for a teammate (Stage 9 for Yates and Stage 15 for Sivakov two days ago ... my god he was strong that day). He was unfortunate that the day they were riding for him was the day that McNulty crashed.

I do worry a bit about Vine if it's wet though. Although he's improved, he's still not the best on a descent.

If it's GC then Roglic is totally obvious. I don't see him getting dropped and the fact that it levels off in the last 1.5km severely reduces Mas's chance if they go to the line together. Skelmose might be the only GC guy who could outsprint Roglic (if, and it's a big if, he can stay with him on the climb).
 
at this point, Movistar & Bora are going to work hard to knock O'Connor out the top GC, so they'll be pushing hard pace on La Collada climb all the way through the last climb before la Huesera where the decisive attack always take place......

I don't believe both Movistar & Bora would allow the breakaway to make it, thinking of the time bonuses as a decisive factor for the overall victory...

I doubt that Roglic is thinking in that way. He's already only 1:03 behind O'Connor and will likely take almost that much off him in the final time trial. The easier the race is from here on the better it is for him. He can just chip away at O'Connor and reduce the risk of blowing to bits and Mas riding away from him.
 
  • Like
Reactions: AmRacer