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Vuelta a España Vuelta a España 2024, stage 17: Arnuero - Santander, 141.5k

This is what passes for a sprint stage in this Vuelta. With some difficult climbing and barely any sprinters left, the breakaway is favoured, but a sprint is definitely likelier than on last Saturday’s stage.

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As you can see on the profile, the climbing starts pretty much right out of the gate. The side of Alto de Ajo is the right of the two profiles below, it’s a genuine hill.
Ajo1.gif


After a flat section along the coast, the route heads inland, and in Cantabria that usually means you’re going to be climbing fairly soon. Things start out easily enough with the Alto de la Cruz, probably outside the top-50 of climbs with that name.
alto-de-la-cruz-de-piedra-santa-maria-de-cayon.png


And then, it’s time for pain. Alto de la Estranguada is another climb that traceurs have wanted to see for years, and for good reason: it contains the single steepest kilometre of this Vuelta, ahead of even Cuitu Negru. It backs directly into Portillo de Lunada, which in turn chains perfectly into Saturday’s MTF at Picón Blanco… but instead of doing the obvious and sensible thing, Unipublic are bypassing this climb by a stone’s throw on that stage, instead including it as a ***-you to the sprinters here.
Estranguada2.png


So no Lunada today, instead the race doubles back on itself to head up Alto del Caracol. This climb runs parallel to Estranguada, only a couple of kilometres further south. It will be used again on Saturday, from the opposite side - the western one, when the western side of Estranguada is the very wall they are using today and would barely have been a detour. While far from the worst design decision a GT has pulled, this surely has to be the most bizarre one…

Oh, right, I’m supposed to post a profile of this side. It’s the final 8.3k of the one below.
CaracolE.gif


After that, the climbing is pretty much done. There’s the easy Alto de San Martín de Villafufre (profile below) not too long after Caracol, other than that the roads are rolling at most. Favourable terrain for the chase, but will there even be one?
san-martin-de-villafufre-le-canal.png
 
This should be the last sprint. I think most rouleurs are waiting for stage 18. Alpecin has a strong enough team to control this and I wouldn't be surprised if DSM helps for Bittner given he's also already won a stage. Sprinters haven't survived for no reason. Maybe even Intermarché is interested as it's probably their only chance to have a decent result this Vuelta.
 
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This should be the last sprint. I think most rouleurs are waiting for stage 18. Alpecin has a strong enough team to control this and I wouldn't be surprised if DSM helps for Bittner given he's also already won a stage. Sprinters haven't survived for no reason. Maybe even Intermarché is interested as it's probably their only chance to have a decent result this Vuelta.

You may be right but I think it would be unwise for the rouleurs to wait until Stage 18. While that stage is more likely to be a win for the breakaway, a Cat 1 that tops out 45km from the finish, followed by multiple uncategorised hills before the finish, will make it very hard for the rouleurs to win.

If the break is strong today (guys like Asgreen, McNulty, Campanaerts etc) then Alpecin will have an impossible task pulling it back by themselves. And perhaps apart from DSM for Bittner, no other teams look likely to contribute.
 
Is it the same finish as when van Baarle rode into an official after the finish line? (2020)
No. The closest finish in 2020 around that area was in Suances, not Santander. According to the vuelta web site the last time Santander hosted a stage finish was more than 20 years ago.

Edit:
Today's stage will start at the Joao de Castilho Monument. This man, who was born at the town hosting the start, was the architect who created the Jerónimos Monastery in Lisbon, which hosted the start of the race,
 
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Approaching another GT stage win today, Campenaerts now shared the message he got from Kwiatkowski after beating him in the Tour this year :D

‘Victor, you mother f***er. Damn. But seriously, congrats. I thought: I’m the smartest, but you were smarter than me, and stronger. Congrats buddy. Enjoy it, but: *** you.’

For today, he was hoping for van Aert to join the break to make things easier, but this will obviously not be the case now. Additionally, he is racing with two broken ribs since stage 2, which makes sprinting quite painful.

 
Interesting stage. Only 140km long but with 2500 vertical meters. If not a break then a reduced bunch sprint. I don’t find it too unlikely that one or two top ten GC riders are caught snoozing in the back of the bunch at some point, making it a frantic three hours.
 
I would guess 3 man break / roadblock for the initial part of the stage. Those climbs in the middle are going to make it a bit more tricky for Alpecin unless they can clog those up as well - there is the potential for counter-attacks from there.
 
Pathetic breakaway gone already

Fight doesn't seem to be completely over yet. But given it's flat and easy to control the chances of a big break going now are small. It's possible a group jumps on the climbs tho. I wouldn't be surprised if Lotto tries to jump with Campenaerts on the climb towards a smaller front group with also a teammate in it like they did in the Tour last year.