Vuelta Leading Contenders

[barmaher]

I hate polls, so you will have to excuse me for not using them.

The final GT of the year is nearly upon us, and in the other thread we can see that the final field is taking shape. Who do you think will win?

The Big 3
Nibali, Valverde and Purito

I feel Nibali is preparing for the Worlds and has stated he will target stage wins. Of course, he could come out all guns blazing in the Vuelta, but I think he will be undercooked at ths start.

J-Rod has shown that he can keep going all year, and he finished the Tour well after being sick. And Valverde was probably the third strongest, if not second strongest rider in the Tour. Both have excellent chances, but it was a hard Tour.

The Colombians
Henao, Uran and Betancur

Carlos and Majka had a real ding **** battle for the Young Riders' Jersey at the Giro, and Betancur came out on top. He is a very exciting rider, as he has come 3rd in Fleche Wallone, fourth in LBL and a host of good finishes in big races. And he has gone with the Quintana prep of a few months in Colombia before rocking up at a Grand Tour fresh. He will have some good support in the mountains from his team with Pozzovivo and Nocentini.

I can't work out how Henao and Uran are going to ride. Will the move to OPQS affect who is going to lead? What is the support team like?

The Old Geezers
Basso, Sammy Sanchez and Horner

Could there be a last hurrah for these old men? I think not, but some people are optimistic?

The Young Guns
Majka, Pinot and Konig

Three months ago, Pino was an outsider for the podium for the Tour. Can he recover his mojo? Konig can ride a bit, and many will think he has no chance...but if he measures his efforts and uses his decent ITT, he could surprise. But my favourite of these is Majka. He was absolutely brilliant in the Giro, riding conservatively, and sticking with the attacks. I think he will get a Top 5, but he has a reasonable chance of better, given his career trajectory, the fact Kreuziger says he will work for him and the question marks over the favourites.

The Wild Cards
Martin, Pozzovivo and de Gendt

These three are like the little girl with the curls....when they're good they're very very good, but they can throw in a right stinker. I think Martin has a good chance of a high GC showing if he gets over the Tour, but he seems more interested in animating the race than riding for a Top 5. Who knows what de Gendt will do? And Domenico is likely to be helping his Colombian pal.

The Others
Nieve, Anton, Capecchi, Mollema, Moreno, Intxausti, ten Dam, Kreuziger, Scarponi

All could ride well.

What are your thoughts?

 

[gustienordic]

Here is my list of favorites:

1) Purito
2) Valverde
3) Henao
4) Betancur
5) Nibali
6) Majka
7) Nieve
8) Basso
9) Pozzo
10) Uran

 

[Afrank]

This thread needs a poll, even if you hate polls. They should be an unspoken requirement for pre-race threads for races as big as the GT's that a poll be included.

Anyway, Nibali for the win. Henao and Betancur to round out the podium. Could see Purito getting on the podium, but we'll see how the Tour affected him (probably same for Valverde). Majka, Basso, and hopefully Pinot and Samu to finish top 10.

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

I Nibles is within 2 min of the leader come 3 week, he will win is my prediction

 

[Ferminal]

Boots....?

 

[airstream]

Do Andy or Froome ride?

 

[Afrank]

Both will ride Colorado.

Edit: Scarponi will ride also.

And Kreuziger as well, he deserves a mention.

 

[SimonC]

IMO I feel you can't look any further than Purito or Valverde. They seem head and shoulders above the rest at the minute

 

[Ruudz0r]

I dont think Kelderman will be riding, he already did the Giro and still is very young.

 

[classicomano]

Kelderman isnt riding the Vuelta.

 

[theyoungest]

Indeed Kelderman won't ride, Mollema will though and he has GC ambitions.

 

[Pricey_sky]

Hope Pinot can rediscover his form and a last hurrah for Samu would be really great. Sky will ride for Henao as Uran is off and hopefully Sergio can podium.

I can see Purito having his usual bad day especially with the Tour in his legs so if Nibali doesn't lose too much time in week 1 he can win it.

1. Nibali
2. Purito
3. Henao
4. Valverde
5. Betancur
6. Pinot
7. Nieve
8. Samu
9. Majka
10. Basso

 

[Ruudz0r]

Indeed Kelderman won't ride, Mollema will though and he has GC ambitions.

He said he didnt have GC ambition he was in the Vuelta to help Ten Dam (and Kruijswijk, but now Kruijswijk aint going anymore). He wanted to try to go for a stage and maybe for the mountain jersey if that was an option.

So either he changed his mind or your wrong!

 

[barmaher]

Thanks, Wilco will be removed from the write up.

But because I am belligerent, I am going with my own replacement young gun. Leopold Konig.

I will add Kreuziger and Scarponi. I wasn't aware the latter was riding.

 

[Afrank]

Anyone know what the status of Anacona is? I remember he had some injuries at the early part of the year, but said the Vuelta was his main goal and they shouldn't affect his chances there?

 

[murali]

isn't henao the leader in vuelta, with uran as super-domestique?

I am more worried about sky not wanting to give chances for uran(they did that with porte in tdf) due to the move thananything else.

as far as the top-5 goes, it has to be some permutation of nibbles, purito, valv, and the 2 columbians(henao, betancur). Among the 5, nibbles is the only person who might miss, as he is more interested in worlds.

 

[gustienordic]

I dont think Nibles is going for the win - if he is, he probably will win though.

 

[classicomano]

He said he didnt have GC ambition he was in the Vuelta to help Ten Dam (and Kruijswijk, but now Kruijswijk aint going anymore). He wanted to try to go for a stage and maybe for the mountain jersey if that was an option.

So either he changed his mind or your wrong!

He changed his mind. It was in an article like 2 weeks ago.

 

[Escarabajo]

IMO I feel you can't look any further than Purito or Valverde. They seem head and shoulders above the rest at the minute

I would agree with you if they had not ridden the Tour de France. You have to factor in the fatigue.

 

[Alphabet]

Basso is going to turn the clock back to 2006 [/wishfulthinking]. Sadly (and realistically), I think the oldies are going to flunk, big time, although I do hope that won't be the case.

Not sure about Purito or Valverde. Both are coming off a tough Tour, I think they'll have problems in the third week, and if some of the fresher contenders- the Colombians or Nibali, most likely- can stay within striking distance of those two by the start of the third week, I can see Purito and Valverde wilting a little and one of the others taking the GC.

 

[theyoungest]

He said he didnt have GC ambition he was in the Vuelta to help Ten Dam (and Kruijswijk, but now Kruijswijk aint going anymore). He wanted to try to go for a stage and maybe for the mountain jersey if that was an option.

So either he changed his mind or your wrong!

http://m.cyclingonline.nl/artikel/1519_mollema_wil_voor_klassement_rijden_in_vuelta.html

 

[barmaher]

isn't henao the leader in vuelta, with uran as super-domestique?

I am more worried about sky not wanting to give chances for uran(they did that with porte in tdf) due to the move thananything else.

as far as the top-5 goes, it has to be some permutation of nibbles, purito, valv, and the 2 columbians(henao, betancur). Among the 5, nibbles is the only person who might miss, as he is more interested in worlds.

If Sky have learned anything, they will have the two as leaders, and "let the road decide".

They made the mistake in Vuelta 11 and in Giro 13 of having the No.2 work for the number 1. Fair enough if he needs to, but at times in Spain and this spring, Froome or the Colombians were working on the front for no particular gain for Wiggins.

 

[hfer07]

This is what's going down:

for the Overall: Nibali, Valverde & Betancur
for 2nd Place: Uran & Purito
for 3rd: Henao & Sanchez

Nibali to me is the rightful favorite, having had time to recuperate, & be fresh for la Vuelta, specially during the last week to peak while looking ahead to the World's. Apart from him, We must remember the Parcours suits Purito like a taylor made suit, but his efforts during the Tour might play against him, specially on the 3rd week. Valverde OTOH did not burn himself that much in France since Nairito took over, so I expect him to be very competitive in Spain.

I have high hopes for my compatriot Betancur, to complete the Colombian podium trifecta on this year's GTs because his amazing style suits this years Vuelta.

 

[offbyone]

Hard to predict, but I think it will be a surprise. All the top contenders have already had a lot of racing in their legs this year. Even if there is a big break from the giro to vuelta, odds are not in favor of the giro contenders to be in form and position to win.

 

[Pentacycle]

@hfer07

Do you know what Betancur's form is like? I heard he had a resporatory infection, which caused him to miss Burgos and of course gave him a setback for the Vuelta. I'm hoping with you, that he can achieve a podium or a stage win, but I'm in doubt about his preparation.