We all know Renshaw is awesome

[issoisso]

But it's hard to quantify it, right?

Well, after a discussion with a friend, I thought I'd do the math to see just what his effect is, statistically speaking.
I mean this solely as a "what a great job Renshaw does"
Cavendish's winning percentage in bunch sprints in which he is there to contest them:

With Renshaw = 72,4%
Without Renshaw = 57,6%

This, despite the fact that Renshaw is with Cavendish mostly only in races where the competition is a lot better.
Feel free to do the same math for Greipel or Hushovd. I'm sure the results will be very similar.

Judging from this (very simple) analysis, I'd say the credit is fully deserved

 

[The Hitch]

With Renshaw = 72,4%
Without Renshaw = 57,6%

I think this sample is way way way too small to do any reasonable tests. The Margin of error here is about +-50%.

At the end of the day Cav on form wins most races whether he has Renshaw there or not. Goss is a very good leadout man as well.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

That's an interesting post.

I absolutely agree that Renshaw makes a very important contribution to Cavendish's success, as does the rest of the HTC train. The fastest sprinter in the world will win a lot of races anyway, but when you put him on the end of an excellent train and immediately after the best lead out man, self-evidently he'll win more of the time.

That said, I'm not sure that your statistic should be relied on too much. I would guess that the category "races in which Renshaw is acting as Cav's lead out man" and the category "races in which Cav is in some sort of form and very serious about winning" overlap very heavily indeed. I'm not sure how much we can really tell from the comparison when quite a lot of races where Cavendish rides without Renshaw are basically training rides for him.

 

[Jancouver]

I would say the whole leadout train is more important than just Renshaw. Just look at the TDU where they didnt have enough horses to bring back one breakaway and it cost them the GC title.

At big races like TDF they have 9 guys so more horse power to control the race. I wish the TDF teams were smaller. Smaller teams and more time bonuses and the the racing will be more exciting.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

I would say the whole leadout train is more important than just Renshaw. Just look at the TDU where they didnt have enough horses to bring back one breakaway and it cost them the GC title.

At big races like TDF they have 9 guys so more horse power to control the race. I wish the TDF teams were smaller. Smaller teams and more time bonuses and the the racing will be more exciting.

Plus, if you knock even one rider off each team you can give out three more wildcards.

 

[taiwan]

...but if anyone else talks up his chances of being a sprinter in his own right, I'll maybe take a bite out of my desk.

 

[jens_attacks]

look at those massive jaws.awesome indeed.

now seriously,he's one big fella and a great helper for cav.chapeau!

 

[Cobblestoned]

His headbutt reminded me that cycling is still alive.
Way better than Contador fondling Andy.
He always enters the sprint like one of the 300 Spartans and is a main main factor for Cavendish's wins.

 

[Met de Versnelling]

His headbutt reminded me that cycling is still alive.
Way better than Contador fondling Andy.
He always enters the sprint like one of the 300 Spartans and is a main main factor for Cavendish's wins.

I'm a lurker more than a poster, and disagree with a lot of your posts cobblestoned, but im with you 100% on this, the headbutt definitely showed more passion than anything else in the tour last year, with the exception of Cav's tears after stage 5.

Renshaw seems to be where Greipal was a few years ago, widely seen as one of the best lead outs, but more than capable of taking many wins for himself. Hopefully this year HTC let Renshaw and Goss go for more stages in GT's, although Cav might bagsy the Vuelta as well as the TdF for warming up for the WC's. I guess Goss will get Giro off the back of early season form (although it's a long time to hold form for up to the Giro), Cav for the other 2.

Interesting thread, i agree with the Hitch and the statistical variation though, the overlapping between the two riders form will be large.

 

[Sum_of_Marc]

Plus, if you knock even one rider off each team you can give out three more wildcards.

Its not that simple - teams are more than just the riders, so much more staff - simply reducing the team size to 8 riders would need leave enough space to then invite more than 1 more team, if that

Renshaw seems to be where Greipal was a few years ago, widely seen as one of the best lead outs, but more than capable of taking many wins for himself. Hopefully this year HTC let Renshaw and Goss go for more stages in GT's, although Cav might bagsy the Vuelta as well as the TdF for warming up for the WC's. I guess Goss will get Giro off the back of early season form (although it's a long time to hold form for up to the Giro), Cav for the other 2.

I disagree that Greipel was ever seen as a lead out rider. He has always tried to be a sprinter in his own right - particularly after the fall out from the Giro where he did lead out Cav for a bit, meaning that he no longer rode in the same races as Cav.

Renshaw meanwhile has been considered a top lead out rider for many years - it was for Hushovd prior to his HTC move

 

[ingsve]

I think this sample is way way way too small to do any reasonable tests. The Margin of error here is about +-50%.

At the end of the day Cav on form wins most races whether he has Renshaw there or not. Goss is a very good leadout man as well.

Well, I'm not as convinced that Goss is as good at the specific lead out skills as Renshaw is. Goss is very fast and is much better as a sprinter but at times he is perhaps even a little too fast and explosive to be a good leadout. A few times his kick made it hard for Cav to follow him which meant that Cav had to do more work before opening up the sprint itself. Renshaw is also very good at navigating through the field and keeping a good position while other teams try to get in front and compete with the lead out. Goss is not as experienced in that part of the lead out skills.

 

[taiwan]

...but if anyone else talks up his chances of being a sprinter in his own right, I'll maybe take a bite out of my desk.

...Hopefully this year HTC let Renshaw... go for more stages in GT's...

<MUNCH> Thanks.

 

[Cobblestoned]

<MUNCH> Thanks.

We could make a law out of the that.
The leadout-man law
or
Renshaw's law

For Germany, that would be Klöden's law

 

[auscyclefan94]

look at those massive jaws.awesome indeed.

now seriously,he's one big fella and a great helper for cav.chapeau!

Here we go, big jaws= growth hormone use

In all seriousness, I hope Mark gets some more chances in bigger races to ride for himself though with Cav, Goss and Howard all at HTC, that may not be possible.

 

[NickBVK]

It all comes down to the fact that Mark Renshaw is a good bloke.

Goss is too fast to be a lead out man, as someone pointed out up there ^

 

[taiwan]

We could make a law out of the that.
The leadout-man law
or
Renshaw's law

For Germany, that would be Klöden's law

Agree. And, dare I say it, it could maybe be Szmyd's law too.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

I'm a lurker more than a poster, and disagree with a lot of your posts cobblestoned, but im with you 100% on this, the headbutt definitely showed more passion than anything else in the tour last year, with the exception of Cav's tears after stage 5.

What about Voeckler's 350m of celebration? I thought that was great. "Celebrate the victory, coming up to last corner now. Oh wait, not last corner. Whoops! Better keep celebrating. Man, this is taking ages, must be just after this corner now. Oh, no, bit more still to do. Jeez, I'm running out of poses to do, I look like Astarloza in slow motion... keep smiling, French national jersey winning a Tour stage and all that... erm... almost there now... thank God for that!"

 

[Nearly]

Well, I'm not as convinced that Goss is as good at the specific lead out skills as Renshaw is. Goss is very fast and is much better as a sprinter but at times he is perhaps even a little too fast and explosive to be a good leadout. A few times his kick made it hard for Cav to follow him which meant that Cav had to do more work before opening up the sprint itself. Renshaw is also very good at navigating through the field and keeping a good position while other teams try to get in front and compete with the lead out. Goss is not as experienced in that part of the lead out skills.

He is without par at holding position - no ifs or buts (ok maybe one or two of the latter but all in the cause) - and in doing so rarely does Renndog lose his bark (they all come down at some time but he much less than others).

 

[skidmark]

I think this sample is way way way too small to do any reasonable tests. The Margin of error here is about +-50%.

At the end of the day Cav on form wins most races whether he has Renshaw there or not. Goss is a very good leadout man as well.

I haven't seen anywhere what the sample size is. Do you know?

I suppose you were exaggerating, but there's no way the margin of error could be 50% unless it was a really small amount of races. But I know they've done a few Tours together (without even considering other races), which would make it at least 20 samples. And I'm sure Cav has done more than 20 races without Renshaw. So it doesn't seem to me that the sample would be 'way way way' too small.

But yes, Renshaw is awesome, quantifiable or not. Sorry I got distracted, the part of me that's a stats prof rarely overtakes the part of me that's a cycling fan, but there it is.

 

[Archibald]

look at those massive jaws.awesome indeed.

now seriously,he's one big fella and a great helper for cav.chapeau!

it's like a ginger James Packer!!

 

[LeakyLens]

I hope Mark gets some more chances in bigger races to ride for himself though with Cav, Goss and Howard all at HTC, that may not be possible.

And Degenkolb