What will be the decisive stage(s) of the Tour?

[180mmCrank]

My vote is for stage 14 - Revel Ax 3 Domaines - 184.5 km
Port de Pailhères - 15.5 km climb to 7.9 % - Category H
Ax-3-Domaines - 7.8 km climb to 8.2 % - Category 1

The field will be ripped apart on the Port de Pailhères and then Contador and whoever is up for it will battle it out on the slopes of Ax-3

I don't think stage 8 is hard enough to really do any big damage. I think Contador will have put time into people before we get to the 'big show down' on stage 17. I really think it will on this stage...

What do others think?

 

[Polish]

This final kilometers into Gap trace the roads & fields from 2003...
I will pick Vino for the win again!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2iqwARP2BvQ

Maybe Lance will follow Alberto down the final descent?

 

[Race Radio]

I think there will be two stages, back to back, that will crack open the Tour

Stage 14

And 15

 

[auscyclefan94]

Nobody thinking the coldu tourmalet will be descisive? The Bales stage won't be overly descisive, morzine will only cause small gaps and ax 3 domaines may cause some gaps but it will depend on how hard they go up the paillerhs.

 

[issoisso]

The time trial, AX-3 and maybe, MAYBE the Tourmalet and Arenberg.
Everywhere else the gaps will be minimal. The climbs just aren't selective enough.

I always find it amazing that they never use the few selective climbs France has. Like the Mont du Chat. When has that ever been used other than in the Clasique des Alpes?

 

[ErmOkk]

The stage to ax-3 domaine won't decide the overall, but it will be most likely like in 2005 where you see 3-5 guys finishing somewhat together. Or maybe AC comes in with a leadout of 20-30 seconds if he couldn't crack the rest on Avoriaz, but nothing more... The stage with the Bales climb is far more tricky imo, because there's only a fast decent afterwards and I think the whole field will be splintered there!

The key stage is probably the stage to le tourmalet though, because I don't really believe AC will lead that much before that stage if everyone is lurking him, and he can't possibly ride away with the fingers in the nose every mountain stage of the rest... For the drama of the race I hope (I'm not an AC hater!) will know some weakness on the flanks of the tourmalet, otherwise AC will win this tour without a lot of leadout, but surely never will get into troubles and takes time when he has to, which is quite boring .

 

[craig1985]

I think there will be two stages, back to back, that will crack open the Tour

Stage 14

And 15

The Port de Balès is an interesting one. False flat for the first 8km, then it kicks up to more then 8%, where the gradient does vary a bit for the remaining 11km, and then the last few km it kicks up to 14%, perfect spot for an attack, because the descent is a fast one, especially if they are a daredevil descender. Be careful about half way down as there is a 90 degree right hand corner, and if you over shoot it, you will go straight into a brick wall

The time trial, AX-3 and maybe, MAYBE the Tourmalet and Arenberg.
Everywhere else the gaps will be minimal. The climbs just aren't selective enough.

I always find it amazing that they never use the few selective climbs France has. Like the Mont du Chat. When has that ever been used other than in the Clasique des Alpes?

Is it big enough for the Tour, or is just another version of Mont Faron?

Here is the profile for those cbf searching:

Contador would rip them to pieces IMO.

 

[Oldman]

The Port de Balès is an interesting one. False flat for the first 8km, then it kicks up to more then 8%, where the gradient does vary a bit for the remaining 11km, and then the last few km it kicks up to 14%, perfect spot for an attack, because the descent is a fast one, especially if they are a daredevil descender. Be careful about half way down as there is a 90 degree right hand corner, and if you over shoot it, you will go straight into a brick wall



Is it big enough for the Tour, or is just another version of Mont Faron?

Here is the profile for those cbf searching:

Contador would rip them to pieces IMO.

I like climbing but this cluster of pain makes me glad I'm racing a 35 mile flat kermesse circuit.

 

[FKLance]

I've only now started studying the route. I think it could be a harder tour but I'm not complaining as long as I am able to watch it at the local bar..

I will mark these days for surely decisive for GC:
the TTs stage 0 and 19, stage 3, stage 8, stage 14-15 (depending a bit on how they ride these) and 17.

Stage 7 long cat.2 climb at the finish

Stage 9, lots of climbing but finish is flat. who knows.

Stage 16 has lots of climbing but GC guys probably want to save themselves as much as they can, finish is flat.

Stage 12 maybe for a daring attack on final climb but not much time can be won, quite short cat. 2 climb.


so stages 0, 3, 7, 8, 9, 12, 14, 15, 16, 17, 19 to me look like the fun days not to be missed. But I think I'll just watch and enjoy every day!

 

[Mellow Velo]

Stage 14 for me, too.
Aix isn't that long, but it's got the gradient. Much like Verbier.
Softening up on the PdP.
Contador will have to go fairly early. The Schlecks will also attack.
Lance will have bad memories from 2003, when he suffered like a dog on both climbs.
Ullrich finally managed to put on the hurt and drop him.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Stage 14 for me, too.
Aix isn't that long, but it's got the gradient. Much like Verbier.
Softening up on the PdP.
Contador will have to go fairly early. The Schlecks will also attack.
Lance will have bad memories from 2003, when he suffered like a dog on both climbs.
Ullrich finally managed to put on the hurt and drop him.

In 2005, he was isolated from his team quite early. Though he still rode away from everyone.

 

[ErmOkk]

In 2005, he was isolated from his team quite early. Though he still rode away from everyone.

No Basso stayed with him until the last 150 metres where he let him take his time bonus . That stage will be man to man all the way up ax-3 domaines probably .

 

[bobs nob]

No Basso stayed with him until the last 150 metres where he let him take his time bonus . That stage will be man to man all the way up ax-3 domaines probably .

Please let's not get sidetracked with an overabundance of history. This thread was pretty interesting until debating of prior races came up. Start a new thread if you'd like, please!

 

[ttrider]

a lot of big favoritres will lose time on mende for sure, with the gradient it is things will automatically happen

 

[180mmCrank]

Please let's not get sidetracked with an overabundance of history. This thread was pretty interesting until debating of prior races came up. Start a new thread if you'd like, please!

+1

I like hisory but for this discussion I'm really interested in what we think will be the battle ground for this Tour.

Cheers

 

[luckyboy]

All the ones that Contador wins.

 

[ScotsBiker]

I was at a 10% bit of Ax last time the TDF finished there and will be again this year. Last time Ullrich attacked on the Pailheres, it's a tough descent and you are straight into the Ax climb.

It will be hot and it's a long stage, should be good.

 

[PCutter]

Stage 17. Maybe Conti's already blown everyone's doors off by here, but the mountain day after the second rest day is always decisive.

 

[180mmCrank]

So I guess not many folk think the ITT is going to be that significant. How much time can anyone lose or gain in a 52km ITT? Put another way...

What's typical for a GT contender who has a flier to put into his closest rivals who do a good but not brilliant ITT? (20s-30s)

or

What's a bad ITT cost a GT contender? (2mins)

I know it's all speculation but it's fun to speculate

 

[uphillstruggle]

What is the gradient/length of the mende?

 

[Libertine Seguros]

What is the gradient/length of the mende?

Col de la Croix-Neuve aka Montée Laurent Jalabert: 3,1km @ 10,1%.

 

[ErmOkk]

I don't think the favourites will spoil too much energy on that ugly badass little climb, knowing what comes... I hope a breakaway makes it so we can see some fireworks in the end.

 

[Escarabajo]

My vote is for stage 14 - Revel Ax 3 Domaines - 184.5 km
Port de Pailhères - 15.5 km climb to 7.9 % - Category H
Ax-3-Domaines - 7.8 km climb to 8.2 % - Category 1

The field will be ripped apart on the Port de Pailhères and then Contador and whoever is up for it will battle it out on the slopes of Ax-3

I don't think stage 8 is hard enough to really do any big damage. I think Contador will have put time into people before we get to the 'big show down' on stage 17. I really think it will on this stage...

What do others think?

Agree with you. The Col de Pailheres is a monster. Remember when they put it as a CAT 1 climb in the Tour in 2003 and caught everybody off guard.

 

[Rb2112]

TDF Stages 1-3: Decisive? Not Boring?

After studying the maps, terrain & historical weather for stages 1 through 3-these might actually be good. In the past TDF opening stages have been a little predictable with bunch sprints at the end. These stages might actually be good: add in 1st week tour nervousness and these stages could be really good.
Stage 1: potential strong cross wind from the North Sea
Stage 2: Mini Ardennes classic
Stage 3: Cobbles
Add 1st week tour jitters and a little weather and I believe these 1st three stages could be game changers.
These might actually be entertaining for the entire stage, not just the the mass sprint and may actually open up some time gaps. What do you guys think?

 

[ferryman]

After studying the maps, terrain & historical weather for stages 1 through 3-these might actually be good. In the past TDF opening stages have been a little predictable with bunch sprints at the end. These stages might actually be good: add in 1st week tour nervousness and these stages could be really good.
Stage 1: potential strong cross wind from the North Sea
Stage 2: Mini Ardennes classic
Stage 3: Cobbles
Add 1st week tour jitters and a little weather and I believe these 1st three stages could be game changers.
These might actually be entertaining for the entire stage, not just the the mass sprint and may actually open up some time gaps. What do you guys think?

Agree with your study.

Plus add Dutch roads on St 1 and = CRASH a la Giro. Let us us hope it does not rain.