Whatever people were taking at the Vuelta

[Waterloo Sunrise]

really wasn't very effective -

http://www.srm.de/index.php?option=...el-mundo&catid=117:strasse&Itemid=503&lang=en

If an hour of 340W with a 10 minute section of 375W in the middle can win you a grand tour (crucial stage, maximal effort, no strategic soft pedalling) then is everything really as bad as it seems you have to insists to get any cool points around here.

(N.b. with Nibali at 63.5 Kilos he's no fly-weight climber, so the power to weight ratios are spectacularly mediocre. You can point to the previous climbs, but they were not high intensity either and were followed with full 5 minute rest periods on the descent - riding the valleys the tempo pace was at a rest level for any decent pro - the only remaining explanation is tiredness at the end of a long tour, but even so these numbers are weak, and tiredness rather debunks a refilling story. Add 5% for altitude if you wish, still nothing out of this world. As for Mosquera, he's either doping all wrong or one of the least talented bike riders earning a living if he can't beat that on EPO.)

 

[TourOfSardinia]

Thanks Waterloo Sunrise

for unearthing this work

 

[Monte Zoncolon]

On the subject of watts and power, here is a very useful and relatively accurate online Cycling Watt's Calculator.

At this Link : http://www.cycleops.com/training/tools/calculators/watts.html

 

[Michielveedeebee]

really wasn't very effective -

http://www.srm.de/index.php?option=...el-mundo&catid=117:strasse&Itemid=503&lang=en

If an hour of 340W with a 10 minute section of 375W in the middle can win you a grand tour (crucial stage, maximal effort, no strategic soft pedalling) then is everything really as bad as it seems you have to insists to get any cool points around here.

(N.b. with Nibali at 63.5 Kilos he's no fly-weight climber, so the power to weight ratios are spectacularly mediocre. You can point to the previous climbs, but they were not high intensity either and were followed with full 5 minute rest periods on the descent - riding the valleys the tempo pace was at a rest level for any decent pro - the only remaining explanation is tiredness at the end of a long tour, but even so these numbers are weak, and tiredness rather debunks a refilling story. Add 5% for altitude if you wish, still nothing out of this world. As for Mosquera, he's either doping all wrong or one of the least talented bike riders earning a living if he can't beat that on EPO.)

dude wtf are you saying ?

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

The level was low at the Vuelta, we already knew that (>> proven by Nibali winning in the end)

 

[The Hitch]

The level was low at the Vuelta, we already knew that (>> proven by Nibali winning in the end)

Did he? Im confused

Hey guys, I missed yesterday's stage because I was at a family thing, so it's pretty fortunate that Dekker_Tifosu told us all what the outcome would be before the stage even started.

Let's hear it for Eze Mosquera winning the Vuelta, right guys?

Not worth watching, i'll see the final km on youtube afterwards

Don't you want to see Xacobeo's triumphant red jersey parade?

 

[hfer07]

really wasn't very effective -

http://www.srm.de/index.php?option=...el-mundo&catid=117:strasse&Itemid=503&lang=en

If an hour of 340W with a 10 minute section of 375W in the middle can win you a grand tour (crucial stage, maximal effort, no strategic soft pedalling) then is everything really as bad as it seems you have to insists to get any cool points around here.

(N.b. with Nibali at 63.5 Kilos he's no fly-weight climber, so the power to weight ratios are spectacularly mediocre. You can point to the previous climbs, but they were not high intensity either and were followed with full 5 minute rest periods on the descent - riding the valleys the tempo pace was at a rest level for any decent pro - the only remaining explanation is tiredness at the end of a long tour, but even so these numbers are weak, and tiredness rather debunks a refilling story. Add 5% for altitude if you wish, still nothing out of this world. As for Mosquera, he's either doping all wrong or one of the least talented bike riders earning a living if he can't beat that on EPO.)

so what's your point?

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

The level was low at the Vuelta, we already knew that (>> proven by Nibali winning in the end)

So why didn't someone dope and win it? Or are these doped performances? In that case I know several amateurs who are a few plastic bags from grand tour wins.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

so what's your point?

is everything really as bad as it seems you have to insists to get any cool points around here.

 

[The Hitch]

So why didn't someone dope and win it? Or are these doped performances? In that case I know several amateurs who are a few plastic bags from grand tour wins.

Of course they doped.

Mosquera got caught with a masking agent which happens to mask epo (im sure it was just a cry for attention and not that he was actually taking epo)

Nibali has links with Ferrari and is best friends with what was probably Puertos biggest catch.

Velits performance was suspicious.

Frank Schleck a known doper came 5th.

The number 11, Garcia de pena got caught with the bomb. Epo itself.

I dont see how this Vuelta was clean at all.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Of course they doped.

Mosquera got caught with a masking agent which happens to mask epo (im sure it was just a cry for attention and not that he was actually taking epo)

Nibali has links with Ferrari and is best friends with what was probably Puertos biggest catch.

Velits performance was suspicious.

Frank Schleck a known doper came 5th.

The number 11, Garcia de pena got caught with the bomb. Epo itself.

I dont see how this Vuelta was clean at all.

So are they all just crap then? The wattage file linked to at the top is clearer attainable clean.

I'm not denying the circumstancial evidence, I'm just asking it is tied up with the strictly factual evidence. Any ultimate explanation which tries to claim that doping is not severely down on 5/10/15 years ago is really going to struggle.

 

[Magnus]

Of course they doped.

Mosquera got caught with a masking agent which happens to mask epo (im sure it was just a cry for attention and not that he was actually taking epo)

Nibali has links with Ferrari and is best friends with what was probably Puertos biggest catch.

Velits performance was suspicious.

Frank Schleck a known doper came 5th.

The number 11, Garcia de pena got caught with the bomb. Epo itself.

I dont see how this Vuelta was clean at all.

And I just read Riis' bio so clearly I'm doing EPO?

 

[Kennf1]

So are they all just crap then? The wattage file linked to at the top is clearer attainable clean.

I'm not denying the circumstancial evidence, I'm just asking it is tied up with the strictly factual evidence. Any ultimate explanation which tries to claim that doping is not severely down on 5/10/15 years ago is really going to struggle.

I don't think anyone is claiming it's as bad as the wild '90s. The Hct limit, epo test, and biopassport have ratcheted down some of the more insane blood values. But anyone claiming the sport is completely clean is also going to have a struggle.

 

[the student]

So its totally unbeleivable he won the vuelta... saying the winner is some mediocre racere goed way too far...

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

So its totally unbeleivable he won the vuelta... saying the winner is some mediocre racere goed way too far...

You misunderstand.

I am saying that if he needed any sort of significant chemical assistance to produce that performance he is pretty mediocre - I can't imagine that's controversial, the numbers are incontrovertibly low.

 

[maltiv]

Of course they doped.

Mosquera got caught with a masking agent which happens to mask epo (im sure it was just a cry for attention and not that he was actually taking epo)

Nibali has links with Ferrari and is best friends with what was probably Puertos biggest catch.

Velits performance was suspicious.

Frank Schleck a known doper came 5th.

The number 11, Garcia de pena got caught with the bomb. Epo itself.

I dont see how this Vuelta was clean at all.

Looking at the numbers, I think we can safely say that a very talented clean rider could actually perform at this level, which is more than one could say just a few years ago. Cycling has come very far if it is actually possible to win a GT clean.

 

[The Hitch]

And I just read Riis' bio so clearly I'm doing EPO?

No, but if you test positive for a masking agent that covers epo, and your teamate tests positive for epo, then i may change my mind

 

[131313]

really wasn't very effective -



If an hour of 340W with a 10 minute section of 375W in the middle can win you a grand tour (crucial stage, maximal effort, no strategic soft pedalling) then is everything really as bad as it seems you have to insists to get any cool points around here....

(N.b. with Nibali at 63.5 Kilos he's no fly-weight climber, so the power to weight ratios are spectacularly mediocre.

Are you insane?

He did 5.5 w/kg for the final 55 minutes, including just over 5.8 w/kg for the final 19 minutes (at 6-7,000 feet)?

I'm not making any claims that this suggests he is or isn't doping, but those are very good numbers from a completely rested athlete. To do them at the end of a 5 hour stage (with three pretty hard climbs preceding), on the 20th stage of the race? That's phenomenal.

 

[pmcg76]

No, but if you test positive for a masking agent that covers epo, and your teamate tests positive for epo, then i may change my mind

Would Mosquera's performance this year be an improvement on previous Vuelta results, if so, then perhaps the fact he was on EPO would help to explain that. Likewise his team-mate but does that mean the more talented riders were also juiced up.

I think most people here agree that the advantages gained by doping are not as great as they once were so Mosquera's EPO advantage might not have been enough to push him past much more talented riders. I am not pushing this as fact but as a theory.

As usual, the 'true natural talent' level is unknown so its hard to predict. All I know is Mosquera was unknown until a few years back and developed at a relatively late stage in his career. I know I was suspicious of Mosquera before this year.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Are you insane?

He did 5.5 w/kg for the final 55 minutes, including just over 5.8 w/kg for the final 19 minutes (at 6-7,000 feet)?

I'm not making any claims that this suggests he is or isn't doping, but those are very good numbers from a completely rested athlete. To do them at the end of a 5 hour stage (with three pretty hard climbs preceding), on the 20th stage of the race? That's phenomenal.

If you actually look at the data rather than the summary, he rode at around 335W for 50 minutes, with a 5 minute section of 400W in the middle.

If you honestly believe that is very good for a completed rested top rider, then the gap between pros and weekend riders is much much narrower than I had thought.

As for it being a hard stage, every earlier climb was well within his compass and then followed by a 5 minutes of near total rest. The average wattage for the stage, ex-climbs, is barely over 200. This is just turning legs over pace for a trained rider and as long as he is eating properly it is no basis for his performance in the final hour dropping any more than 3 or 4% below his fully rested best.

To be blunt, I know an amateur the same weight as Nibali, who could replicate that final 55 minutes of power outputs, and who is not doped. All the evidence is that a preceding stage has some effect, but nowhere near as much as people tend to expect, so I feel pretty justified in being amazed at the relatively low level of performance.

 

[ultimobici]

If you actually look at the data rather than the summary, he rode at around 335W for 50 minutes, with a 5 minute section of 400W in the middle.

If you honestly believe that is very good for a completed rested top rider, then the gap between pros and weekend riders is much much narrower than I had thought.

As for it being a hard stage, every earlier climb was well within his compass and then followed by a 5 minutes of near total rest. The average wattage for the stage, ex-climbs, is barely over 200. This is just turning legs over pace for a trained rider and as long as he is eating properly it is no basis for his performance in the final hour dropping any more than 3 or 4% below his fully rested best.

To be blunt, I know an amateur the same weight as Nibali, who could replicate that final 55 minutes of power outputs, and who is not doped. All the evidence is that a preceding stage has some effect, but nowhere near as much as people tend to expect, so I feel pretty justified in being amazed at the relatively low level of performance.

But could he do that day after day to the same degree? That's the difference.

 

[131313]

If you actually look at the data rather than the summary, he rode at around 335W for 50 minutes, with a 5 minute section of 400W in the middle.

I actually didn't even read the summary, I just looked at the file. 346.9W for the last 55:03, and the very end of that is 364.9W for 18:59. Obviously, it's a race and not a TT, so the power is somewhat variable, which makes it even more impressive. Those are very, very high numbers.

If you honestly believe that is very good for a completed rested top rider, then the gap between pros and weekend riders is much much narrower than I had thought.

I do. If you can find a weekend racer putting up numbers similar to that, I'd ask them to check the calibration on their power meter. 5.5 w/kg is a lot of power, particularly at reasonable altitude (I don't want to overstate the altitude thing, it wasn't crazy high--but the last 20 minutes, where he did the 5.8 w/kg has getting up there, 6500-7,000 ft).

To be blunt, I know an amateur the same weight as Nibali, who could replicate that final 55 minutes of power outputs, and who is not doped. All the evidence is that a preceding stage has some effect, but nowhere near as much as people tend to expect, so I feel pretty justified in being amazed at the relatively low level of performance.

If he can do 5.5 w/kg for 55 minutes, he should be racing professionally (seriously). That's the top 10% (or higher) of US-based pros, and probably above the midpoint of euros.

As far as the preceding effect of the previous 19 stages, loss of hct is well-documented, and significant. I don't think the earlier climbs really had that much of an effect (but some), probably 1-2%. The previous 2+ weeks of racing, OTOH is going to have an effect on the parameters which influence performance.

Again, I'm not saying this is evidence that he's doping. I have no idea. I just don't think these data suggest the field is clean, either.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

I actually didn't even read the summary, I just looked at the file. 346.9W for the last 55:03, and the very end of that is 364.9W for 18:59. Obviously, it's a race and not a TT, so the power is somewhat variable, which makes it even more impressive. Those are very, very high numbers.



I do. If you can find a weekend racer putting up numbers similar to that, I'd ask them to check the calibration on their power meter. 5.5 w/kg is a lot of power, particularly at reasonable altitude (I don't want to overstate the altitude thing, it wasn't crazy high--but the last 20 minutes, where he did the 5.8 w/kg has getting up there, 6500-7,000 ft).






If he can do 5.5 w/kg for 55 minutes, he should be racing professionally (seriously). That's the top 10% (or higher) of US-based pros, and probably above the midpoint of euros.

As far as the preceding effect of the previous 19 stages, loss of hct is well-documented, and significant. I don't think the earlier climbs really had that much of an effect (but some), probably 1-2%. The previous 2+ weeks of racing, OTOH is going to have an effect on the parameters which influence performance.

Again, I'm not saying this is evidence that he's doping. I have no idea. I just don't think these data suggest the field is clean, either.

Your points around hct drop off etc bring us exactly back to the point I was trying to make with this thread.

Apparently we disagree, but in the context of recent professional performances this was exceptional on the low side, not the high side. I find the fact it occured right at the end of a 3 week race very encouraging when considering the level of doping afoot - obviously the positive of his main rival is less so.

 

[maltiv]

Are you insane?

He did 5.5 w/kg for the final 55 minutes, including just over 5.8 w/kg for the final 19 minutes (at 6-7,000 feet)?

I'm not making any claims that this suggests he is or isn't doping, but those are very good numbers from a completely rested athlete. To do them at the end of a 5 hour stage (with three pretty hard climbs preceding), on the 20th stage of the race? That's phenomenal.

Phenomonal for a clean rider yes, but 10 years ago those very numbers would only result in coming in 10-15 minutes after the winner. Nibali did the climb with a VAM of around 1400-1450. Now, if you watch this very outdated article from wikipedia...:

1800+ Vm/h: Lance Armstrong - and Marco Pantani of olden days
1650-1800 Vm/h: Top 10 / Tour de France GC or mountain stage winner.
1450-1650 Vm/h: Top 20 / Tour de France GC; top 20 on tough mountain stage.
1300-1450 Vm/h: Finishing Tour de France mountain stages in peloton
1100-1300 Vm/h: The Autobus Crew

...that is apparently only enough to finish in the peloton!

 

[Andynonomous]

I think it is reasonable to assume that even though the dopers will adjust their doping as the authorities upgrade their testing, the dopers would likely have to use less effective methods of doping to avoid the more stringent testing.

Therefore the advantage to doping decreases as the testing becomes tougher, andf the performance edge does decrease for a doper.


In theory at least.