Who are the best in 300 meters punchy-sprint?

[Asero831]

Assuming all else equal and starting on flat roads and then the final 300 meters going into the finish have a constant gradient of X%, who are your top 2 contenders to win. Here's mine:

3% - Cancellera, Sagan
6% - Degenkolb, Lobato
9% - Lobato, Kwiatkowski
12% - Valverde, Gilbert
15% - Valverde, Rodriguez


Let's just have multiples for 3% in this discussion

 

[Netserk]

Someone like Sagan will beat Purito in the last example as well.

The stage Degenkolb won ahead of Valverde in Dubai was ~9% on average in the last 300 meters.

 

[DFA123]

Assuming all else equal and starting on flat roads and then the final 300 meters going into the finish have a constant gradient of X%, who are your top 2 contenders to win. Here's mine:

3% - Cancellera, Sagan
6% - Degenkolb, Lobato
9% - Lobato, Kwiatkowski
12% - Valverde, Gilbert
15% - Valverde, Rodriguez


Let's just have multiples for 3% in this discussion

Degenkolb destroyed everyone on the +15% climb in Qatar. 300m is more or less the territory of sprinters, regardless of the gradient. 3% even Kittel would have a chance. By 15% you'd be looking more at Matthews, Degenkolb and possibly Gerrans.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

Someone like Sagan will beat Purito in the last example as well.

The stage Degenkolb won ahead of Valverde in Dubai was ~9% on average in the last 300 meters.

That came at the end of a fairly long drag as well, so they entered the steep section at a relatively low speed. If it was just 300m at the end of flat roads, then they'd approach it at about 60km/h. Even a 15% climb is less than a one minute all out effort in that situation - raw power far more important than power-weight.

 

[Netserk]

If you think 700m of 2% is a fairly long drag, then sure they did. They still entered the last 300m in a very high speed.


And power-to-weight is far more important than raw power. Otherwise Kittel should do better than Purito on such a finish. It is however anaerobic p/w that is important, not the threshold one.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

If you think 700m of 2% is a fairly long drag, then sure they did. They still entered the last 300m in a very high speed.


And power-to-weight is far more important than raw power. Otherwise Kittel should do better than Purito on such a finish. It is however anaerobic p/w that is important, not the threshold one.

They approached the climb at less than 30km/h, because the steep bit also started after a couple of 90 degree turns. There is an absolutely huge difference on a 300m climb, if you approach it at 60km/h or 30km/h.

Take a look at how slowly they started the steepest section - https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=p ... qSRw#t=513

A 300m climb at 10%, having approached it at 60km/h (which they undoubtedly would on flat roads), I would back Kittel to beat Rodriguez. 15% maybe would just swing it towards Rodriguez.

 

[Miburo]

Gilbert can't do *** at 12% unless we're talking about Gilbert of 2011, he could do anything but that guy is gone forever.

Edit: wait why 300 meters? That's way too short, how much speed to they have before that, 50, 60km? or 30km? 300meters is ridiculous to use.

 

[Asero831]

How i wish there are more races similar to Stage 3 of Dubai tour. Imagine Kristoff, Degenkolb, Matthews, Swift mixing up with Gilbert, Martin, Kwiat, GVA, Valverde and Gerrans

 

[Netserk]

Re: Re:

If you think 700m of 2% is a fairly long drag, then sure they did. They still entered the last 300m in a very high speed.


And power-to-weight is far more important than raw power. Otherwise Kittel should do better than Purito on such a finish. It is however anaerobic p/w that is important, not the threshold one.

They approached the climb at less than 30km/h, because the steep bit also started after a couple of 90 degree turns. There is an absolutely huge difference on a 300m climb, if you approach it at 60km/h or 30km/h.

Take a look at how slowly they started the steepest section - https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=p ... qSRw#t=513

A 300m climb at 10%, having approached it at 60km/h (which they undoubtedly would on flat roads), I would back Kittel to beat Rodriguez. 15% maybe would just swing it towards Rodriguez.

That bend is within the last 300m, not before it. They approached the last 300m with a high speed.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

If you think 700m of 2% is a fairly long drag, then sure they did. They still entered the last 300m in a very high speed.


And power-to-weight is far more important than raw power. Otherwise Kittel should do better than Purito on such a finish. It is however anaerobic p/w that is important, not the threshold one.

I've just ran a couple of calculations and Kittel should beat Rodriguez on anything up to and including 15% at 300m.

If you take the Coggan profile chart - the top rider's 1 min power is somewhere around 11.2 w/kg - so we can assume Kittel is somewhere round that. Rodriguez probably slightly below, as he has more of an all round profile (let's say 10.8 w/kg).

That gives Kittel (weight 86kg) a one minute power of about 963 watts. Rodriguez (weight 58kg) would be somewhere around 626 watts.

According to Kreuzotter (http://www.kreuzotter.de/english/espeed.htm), on a 15% climb, that gives Kittel an average speed of 22.9km/h and Rodriguez an average speed of 21.2km/h.

Those speeds indicate that a 300m climb would take around 53 seconds - so the one minute power is a good guide. They also don't take into account that the climb would start with a high speed, and so in reality it would probably take less than 40 seconds - swining it even more in Kittel's favour. Obviously, anything less than 15% gradient would also favour Kittel even more.

So, over that distance, raw power is much more important than watts per kg.

 

[Netserk]

Raw power = absolute watts

In your calculation, for some unknown reason, you have given Kittel a higher 1' relative power than Purito. So you reach the conclusion that the rider who has the highest W/kg wins. No surprise.

Back to reality, Kittel would explode to a standstill if he tried to follow the best on 300m @ 15%.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

Raw power = absolute watts

In your calculation, for some unknown reason, you have given Kittel a higher 1' relative power than Purito. So you reach the conclusion that the rider who has the highest W/kg wins. No surprise.

Back to reality, Kittel would explode to a standstill if he tried to follow the best on 300m @ 15%.

Fine, the exact numbers don't matter. Kittel would win even with lower w/kg.

If for example, we assume that Kittel only has a 1 minute power of 10.5w/kg - which on the Coggan chart would be that of an average domestic pro, he would still average 21.6 km/h or a minute up a 15% climb. So faster than Rodriguez with a 1 min w/kg of 10.8.

I think it's fair to say that the fastest sprinter in the world probably has a higher 1 minute power than the average domestic pro.

And, of course, that doesn't take into account that the climb would only last around 40 seconds in all probability given the speed they would approach at.

The last statement you made I probably agree with - Kittel may well get blown away by the best on such a climb (Degenkolb, Matthews), but he wouldn't get blown away by Rodriguez, because a climb like this is much more suited to sprinters.

 

[del1962]

How long could Kittel sustain his power for?

 

[hrotha]

While Cancellara might do better on a 3% gradient than on a 10% one, at 3% the vast majority of pure sprinters would beat him in a normal race. Things start to change after 250 km, but even then he wouldn't win. Honestly, 3% is not enough to make it a punchy sprint. It's one that would give McEwen or Freire better odds against the likes of Cipollini, but that's it.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

How long could Kittel sustain his power for?

Well a speed of around 22km/h on 15% is an estimate of his one minute power. Any climb under 300m will take much less than a minute so he should be able to sustain it for that length.

On a 3% climb that might only take 20 seconds; he would probably be averaging over 50km/h

 

[Bushman]

3% What about Kristoff?
Also Sagan would be very good at 6% maybe even 9%, 12% and 15% ad well when it's only 300 metres.

 

[King Boonen]

This is pretty pointless really

It's massively dependent on what the first 249.7km were like.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

This is pretty pointless really

It's massively dependent on what the first 249.7km were like.

Of course it is dependent on how the race is, but even after a really hard race, it's still an effort of between 20 seconds and a minute and being taken from a starting speed probably well over 50km/h. Climbers don't have a chance against sprinters on that length.

 

[King Boonen]

Re: Re:

This is pretty pointless really

It's massively dependent on what the first 249.7km were like.

Of course it is dependent on how the race is, but even after a really hard race, it's still an effort of between 20 seconds and a minute and being taken from a starting speed probably well over 50km/h. Climbers don't have a chance against sprinters on that length.

Really? if it's 15% after two ascents of Alpe d'Huez and Kittel has been chasing hard for 50km to get back on I'd back Rodriguez/Martin etc. to go early and have the legs. If it's at the end of a flat 250 where everyone has been riding in the bunch then you're going to give guys like Sagan/Kwiatkowski/Gilbert etc. the nod.

Like I said, pointless

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

This is pretty pointless really

It's massively dependent on what the first 249.7km were like.

Of course it is dependent on how the race is, but even after a really hard race, it's still an effort of between 20 seconds and a minute and being taken from a starting speed probably well over 50km/h. Climbers don't have a chance against sprinters on that length.

Really? if it's 15% after two ascents of Alpe d'Huez and Kittel has been chasing hard for 50km to get back on I'd back Rodriguez/Martin etc. to go early and have the legs. If it's at the end of a flat 250 where everyone has been riding in the bunch then you're going to give guys like Sagan/Kwiatkowski/Gilbert etc. the nod

Like I said, pointless

Well, the original post said 'all things being equal'. I don't think two ascents of Alpe d'Huez and one rider chasing hard to get back on is 'equal'.

Even after a hard race where all the sprinters are absolutely knackered, they will still comfortably beat Martin or Rodriguez on a 30 second all out effort from a 50km/h start.

 

[King Boonen]

All else being equal, happened in no bike race ever.

Best sprinters always win, even when knackered, do they? Remind me what order GVA and Sagan finished in this weekend?

 

[DFA123]

Re:

All else being equal, happened in no bike race ever.

Best sprinters always win, even when knackered, do they? Remind me what order GVA and Sagan finished in this weekend?

Well that's a massive straw man. I never said the best sprinter would win just that sprinters would easily beat climbers on a very short effort like that. Of course fatigue is a factor, but a 30 second effort just isn't long enough for riders like Martin and Rodriguez from a fast start.

If they started from a standstill then the climbers might have a chance because their acceleration would be greater, from a fast start - no chance.

 

[TheGreenMonkey]

Re:

Raw power = absolute watts

In your calculation, for some unknown reason, you have given Kittel a higher 1' relative power than Purito. So you reach the conclusion that the rider who has the highest W/kg wins. No surprise.

Back to reality, Kittel would explode to a standstill if he tried to follow the best on 300m @ 15%.

Petacchi slowing on an uphill finish in the Giro a few years ago comes to mind. Not sure what the details of that finish were but he seemed to have it won only to slow dramatically and be passed.

 

[TheGreenMonkey]

Re:

While Cancellara might do better on a 3% gradient than on a 10% one, at 3% the vast majority of pure sprinters would beat him in a normal race. Things start to change after 250 km, but even then he wouldn't win. Honestly, 3% is not enough to make it a punchy sprint. It's one that would give McEwen or Freire better odds against the likes of Cipollini, but that's it.

What was the finishin of the WC course in Denmark that Cavendish won?
Or the finish of the WC in Geelong that Hushovd won?

 

[Netserk]

Cav lost more than 10'' to Degenkolb on 300m @ less than 9% (was beaten by Zaugg amongst others as well), yet Kittel who is far worse climber/punchy sprinter than Cav will be able to beat Purito on a 300m 15% climb. Lol.





Geels Bakke is 575m @ 3.7%