Who are the best time trialers heading in the Pais Vasco TT?

[GoGarmin]

Below are the standings after stage 4 of the Vuelta al Pais Vasco:

1 Joaquin Rodriguez Oliver (Spa) Katusha Team 17:12:43
2 Andreas Klöden (Ger) Team RadioShack
3 Samuel Sanchez Gonzalez (Spa) Euskaltel-Euskadi
4 Christopher Horner (USA) Team RadioShack 0:00:01
5 Ryder Hesjedal (Can) Team Garmin-Cervelo 0:00:06
6 Xavier Tondo Volpini (Spa) Movistar Team
7 Robert Gesink (Ned) Rabobank Cycling Team
8 David Lopez Garcia (Spa) Movistar Team
9 Beñat Intxausti Elorriaga (Spa) Movistar Team 0:00:09
10 Alexandre Vinokourov (Kaz) Pro Team Astana 0:00:10
11 Andy Schleck (Lux) Leopard Trek 0:00:18

With minimal changes expected in stage 5, this means the race will be won after the stage 6, semi-hilly TT. How would you rate the chances of the contenders above given their TT skills? I've got:

Klöden
Vino
Horner

 

[User Guide]

podium

podium will read...
1.Kloden
2.Gesink(rabo inprovement across the board in TT+ is a bit lumpy)
3.Horner

 

[Eric8-A]

In the top 10, Kloden is the best TT'ist. Others that would do good, Horner and if he's on top of his game and it seems like he is, Ryder. Not sure how decisive the TT will be and how many spots Sanchez and Rodriguez will drop. Gesink did surprise with his TT win, so I wouldn't be shocked if he moves up a few spots with that TT.

Not sure if this is the right place to say it and it probably isn't. But for the people who thought Tony Martin had a chance at this race, HA!

 

[JA.Tri]

Gesink +1

Robert Gesink, well not really a surprise packet (done that already), will leap up the board (luck and a good following wind allowing).

However AK and CH in front.

 

[Ferminal]

Tony Martin
Richie Porte

But they don't matter.

It's between Klöden, Horner and Vino, any of them could win it if they had a very good day. Samu is a bit of an outsider and may be able to hold his top3 spot or pull off an upset.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Gesink has improved but wont win this, I cant see him even cracking the podium. maybe 5th overall.

my guess;
Kloden
Horner
Samu
Vino
Gesink
Tondo

 

[SiAp1984]

My money's on Klöden. Should be faster than Horner for sure and he deserves a stage race win this spring after his performance at Paris-Nice. I'm a little afraid of Hesjedal, though...

 

[jens_attacks]

vino never won pais vasco,he will go like a demon.don't forget the last 5 km from the stage 3,that was a hell of itt.now he says he feels even better.it's between him and klodi,it will be epic.

 

[luckyboy]

For sure Kloden will take the overall. I don't think a motivated Sanchez is that bad at TTing that he would fall off the podium.

This time trial is exactly the same as the 2009 one where he beat Evans, Rogers, Pinotti, Larsson and everybody else except Contador.

Last year he out-TTed Kloden in Algarve, Pais Vasco and the Tour, though he hasn't done as well in them this year.

Anyway I like Sanchez more than Kloden or Horner, so that's the podium right there

 

[Eyeballs Out]

I would say Kloden is beatable on this course - in last year's race Horner beat him by 34 seconds on a similar course. This year, of course, Kloden's form is better but 34 seconds better ?? Climbers do well in these TTs

 

[Frosty]

When it comes to the final top 5 i dont think Intxausti should be overlooked. He came 4th in the TT in the Basque Tour last year, beating S. Sanchez, and has some other good results too. Hes now 25 instead of 24 so should have improved slightly.

The TT stage profile is in the link below - an early climb of 9.5% for almost 1km, then a 4km climb at almost 5%. Doesnt give any info as to whether the longer climb is steady or contain significantly steeper bits.


http://vueltapaisvasco.diariovasco.com/2011/perfiles/etapa-6.pdf

EDIT: Yes, course is the same as in 2009. FWIW these were the results.

http://autobus.cyclingnews.com/road/2009/apr09/paisvasco09/?id=results/paisvasco096

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Gesink already rode to 5th and 9th place in the closing Pais Vasco TT in the past, when he was worse in ITT-ing, however, his form is now a bit worse than it was then. So I expect Klöden, Sammy Sanchez and Vino in front of him.

Horner was exceptional in the TT last year, but normally his TT's aren't that great (good, but not super). So I doubt he can repeat that stunt.

 

[Bavarianrider]

Klöden for the overall win
Tony Martin should take the time trial easily

 

[theyoungest]

Gesink already rode to 5th and 9th place in the closing Pais Vasco TT in the past, when he was worse in ITT-ing, however, his form is now a bit worse than it was then. So I expect Klöden, Sammy Sanchez and Vino in front of him.

Horner was exceptional in the TT last year, but normally his TT's aren't that great (good, but not super). So I doubt he can repeat that stunt.

His form maybe, but he's become a stronger rider. He wasn't that close to the leader after the queen stage as he is now.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

I know, but he was now the 8/9/10th strongest climber maybe, Last year he was with the best 4 (before his fall anyway)

 

[theyoungest]

I know, but he was now the 8/9/10th strongest climber maybe, Last year he was with the best 4 (before his fall anyway)

That's true. Horner, Klöden, Sanchez, Vino, possibly Tondo are all very likely to finish above him. So a 6th or 7th place is in the cards

Why doesn't he just do a Horner next year, i.e. peak for this race and forget about those Ardennes classics? He has a very slim chance to win any of them. At least 10 riders are stronger.

 

[Havetts]

Why doesn't he just do a Horner next year, i.e. peak for this race and forget about those Ardennes classics? He has a very slim chance to win any of them. At least 10 riders are stronger.

He's trying to peak for it now, maybe the Ardennes will go great and he's able to contend / win, why would he go full peak when he's on 6 seconds behind on Kloden when he's training for the Ardennes. Maybe a little bit more form and no falling (last year ) could make him win this race though

 

[taiwan]

Best TTists riding this

Were this flat, I suppose Martin, Vino, Sanchez, Sanchez (whichever way).

Last year Oria-Oria, 22km
1 Chris Horner USA in 32m 33s
2 Alejandro Valverde Belmonte ESP at 08s
3 Maxime Monfort BEL at 13s
4 Michael Rogers AUS at 18s
5 Beñat Intxausti Elorriaga ESP at 21s
6 Samuel Sanchez Gonzalez ESP at 23s
7 Marco Pinotti ITA at 25s
8 Joaquim Rodríguez Oliver ESP at 33s
9 Jean-Christophe Peraud FRA at
10 Andreas Klöden GER at 34s

2009 same stage? Zalla-Zalla, 24km
1 Alberto Contador Velasco ESP in 31m 59s
2 Antonio Colóm Mas ESP at 22s
3 Samuel Sanchez Gonzalez ESP at 45s
4 Michael Rogers AUS at 01m 09s
5 Luis León Sánchez Gil ESP at 01m 13s
6 Marco Pinotti ITA at 01m 18s
7 Christian Vandevelde USA at 01m 22s
8 Cadel Evans AUS at 01m 25s
9 Robert Gesink NED at
10 Damiano Cunego ITA at 01m 26s

Look, there's Rogers on both: I guess he'll be competitive.
I'm tempted to forget about Martin, who has just been here fo miles, but that would be stupid, so, yes:

Martin
Vino
S. Sanchez

If the question is about the eventual GC, I think Vino, Sanchez, Horner

 

[hrotha]

Not many people mentioning Intxausti. Now, I thought he was never going to show up in a top race like this, but since he did, his form must be good, and he's quite decent in this kind of TT.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

TT I don't know, (i don't care about the Tony Martin like riders being 40 minutes behind that will probably win the ITT)

But final GC I think..

1 Klöden
2 S.Sanchez
3 Vino

And then it's anyone's guess. All riders, even Rodriguez, have done a decent hilly ITT in their careers. Intxausti, Gesink, Horner, Hesjedal, etc... maybe only David Lopez is REALLY terrible at it.
So it comes down to form of the day

 

[Mellow Velo]

Klöden for the overall win
Tony Martin should take the time trial easily

Ah, speaking of whom; that nice Doctore Ferrari has fingered him as another camelback cheat.
http://www.53x12.com/do/show?page=article&id=93

 

[CatsNK]

I'm going for Kloden, Horner & Vino. Who knows what order. Vino says he feels strong.

 

[taiwan]

Ah, speaking of whom; that nice Doctore Ferrari has fingered him as another camelback cheat.
http://www.53x12.com/do/show?page=article&id=93

Michele Ferrari!?!

 

[Trev_S]

final GC
1 Klöden
2 Vino
2 S.Sanchez

 

[nvpacchi]

Sanchez will have the motivation to carry him through. He beat Kloden last year in the Basque TT, so its not like Kloden is loads better against the clock than him.

Vino does scare me though