Who has/hasn't reached their peak?

[scullster46]

Since the best way to pass the offseason seems to be speculative threads and top 10 threads, I thought this would be a good topic to discuss. Basically, who do you think is past their career peak, and how much longer can they produce results.

I'll give a good name to start with, Menchov. I believe he's past his career peak, and that he will start on his decline similar to Sastre's these past few years.

 

[The Hitch]

Menchov has another performance in him I think.

Boonen is past his peak as I think is Cunego.

Samu, Menchov, Cadel, Purito will all start declining in the next 1 or 2 years.

Dont know about Cancellara. His RVV performance suggests it might just have been an Annus Horriblis, not a decline.

What I worry about is Sagan. Surely there isnt more to come. Some Eastern European riders, it is documented peak too early. Popo obviously. Is Sagan simply hitting a peak too early?

Which obviously worries me about the young Polish riders. Especially Majka who is 21 and already doing GTs. Way too early.

 

[El Pistolero]

Menchov has another performance in him I think.

Boonen is past his peak as I think is Cunego.

Samu, Menchov, Cadel, Purito will all start declining in the next 1 or 2 years.

Dont know about Cancellara. His RVV performance suggests it might just have been an Annus Horriblis, not a decline.

What I worry about is Sagan. Surely there isnt more to come. Some Eastern European riders, it is documented peak too early. Popo obviously. Is Sagan simply hitting a peak too early?

Which obviously worries me about the young Polish riders. Especially Majka who is 21 and already doing GTs. Way too early.

Peter Sagan is the new Eric Vanderaerden.

 

[Havetts]

Good thread idea.

I think Menchov hasn't lost it, he wasnt on his best form in the Giro due to not having enough racing in his legs and because he lost time in the first week of the Vuelta Cobo was the new team captain for GC. I think Menchov couldve won the Vuelta if it weren't for Cobo being on his team.

 

[Michielveedeebee]

Boonen might be past his 05/06 peak, but he certainly is still good enough to compete on the absolute highest level in the classics. No doubt about that in my mind.

I am waiting for Leipheimer and Horner to go past their peaks tbh...

 

[scullster46]

Idk about Cunego, he just had one of his best years in a while, so I think he has a few more high quality one week stage races left in him. Unfortunately, I don't think he will win many more classics. He is a perfect example of what happens when someone is very good early. People put unrealistic expectations on them, and they rarely reach them.

For endurance athletes who are very good at a young age, it is well documented that they reach their peak earlier than others. The thing that is on Sagan's side however is that while the first thing to decline is explosiveness/sprint power, endurance increases with age due to accumulated training. This is one of the reasons you see guys like Jalabert, Kelly, and Hushovd to an extent getting better at stage races when they are older. It's a bit more apparent in running, as the normal progression was to move up in distance as one aged(although this whole theory has kind of been challenged the past couple of years).

Also on the flip side, those who aren't as good at an early age tend to maintain a high fitness for much longer than people expect, which is why people feel Cadel will be ok for a bit longer. I think Purito falls under this classification, as he wasn't pushed too hard for results till he became a leader at katusha

 

[barmaher]

I think TGBM has peaked.

 

[hfer07]

expect Chris Horner to peak once more

 

[ingsve]

First of all, being past ones peak doesn't mean they're not good anymore. Just that they are slightly less good than they were at some point in the past. Some riders are also hard to assess. Theyhave been steady workers that get the occasional result and they are still steady workers that get an occasional result. Because if this it becomes natural to mainly look at riders that have been leaders and have had some sort of expectation of doing results.

Leipheimer
Klöden
Horner
Cunego
Bennati
Basso
Vinokourov
Menchov
Petacchi
Boonen
Ballan
Vande Velde
Paolini
Hincapie
Zubeldia
Popovych
Garzelli
Grabsch
O'Grady
McEwen
Di Luca
Bodrogi
Elmiger
Voigt
Bruseghin
Cioni
etc
etc
etc

Then you have guys like Hushovd who is clearly past his peak when it comes to sprinting but has at the same time become better in the classics so it's hard know how to assess that.

 

[El Pistolero]

I don't think Boonen is past his peak: he's past his sprinter peak, but not in the classics.

He was second in both Milan-San Remo and the Ronde van Vlaanderen in 2010 and he said he has never felt better than that before, but he came across a way too strong Cancellara. In 2011 his season was ruined by bad luck and crashes from the previous season still had some effect on him. I hope he'll be back to his full classics glory next year, but he's past his sprinting peak though.

 

[Zam_Olyas]

I think The Enigmatic Pope still have somettthing left to give and next season will be a good year to judge Fabian. TGBM hasn't reached his peak and btw... jens attack what are your thoughts about Il killer?

 

[luckyboy]

Gonna say that Menchov will win a GT next season, and Boonen will win either De Ronde or Roubaix.

Di Luca obviously is past it. McEwen, Petacchi.. Probably most of ingsve's list.

I don't think Leipheimer or Horner have showed much sign of decline this season. Their bad luck in the Tour meant we couldn't really tell though. Would be heartening to see them show some kind sort of decline next year.

The Schlecks have already had their best results, so I guess they count

 

[jens_attacks]

froome and cobo didn't peak yet.frank schleck also i feel he can do something big(win a grand tour) in the next seasons

basso and menchov will have another two seasons of good stuff i'm sure

and btw... jens attack what are your thoughts about Il killer?

hate to say it but we don't even know if he will ride next year,there are rumours saying he will leave pro cycling as a rider.it seems that he didn't trained much in the period of the ban. also he's businessman now,he didn't treat pro cycling this season as his primary job.
his case is simple:he comes back with acqua e sapone motivated,angry for revenge winning again giro stages and delivering emotion to all his fans or he will retire letting behind a palmares filled with pretty much every win possible for him(too bad he didn't win sanremo).i hope it will be the first case,not the second.

 

[Zam_Olyas]

froome and cobo didn't peak yet.frank schleck also i feel he can do something big(win a grand tour) in the next seasons

basso and menchov will have another two seasons of good stuff i'm sure




hate to say it but we don't even know if he will ride next year,there are rumours saying he will leave pro cycling as a rider.it seems that he didn't trained much in the period of the ban. also he's businessman now,he didn't treat pro cycling this season as his primary job.
his case is simple:he comes back with acqua e sapone motivated,angry for revenge winning again giro stages and delivering emotion to all his fans or he will retire letting behind a palmares filled with pretty much every win possible for him(too bad he didn't win sanremo).i hope it will be the first case,not the second.

okay.... thank you

 

[trevim]

froome and cobo didn't peak yet.frank schleck also i feel he can do something big(win a grand tour) in the next seasons

basso and menchov will have another two seasons of good stuff i'm sure




hate to say it but we don't even know if he will ride next year,there are rumours saying he will leave pro cycling as a rider.it seems that he didn't trained much in the period of the ban. also he's businessman now,he didn't treat pro cycling this season as his primary job.
his case is simple:he comes back with acqua e sapone motivated,angry for revenge winning again giro stages and delivering emotion to all his fans or he will retire letting behind a palmares filled with pretty much every win possible for him(too bad he didn't win sanremo).i hope it will be the first case,not the second.

As much as I would like Frank Schleck to win a GT I don't think that will ever happen because of the Tour obsession - he has a podium, stage wins, I think he can't get anything else, specially with heavy TT parcours.

I would like him to go with the Giro-Vuelta and give a shot at the late season classics, specially Lombardia. I would see him more as a World Champion than as a GT winner. I mean, not by being the strongest, but with a nice tactical move he can do it. And he was the only one to hold the wheel of Gilbert in Liege so...I know he only lead him out but it was a nice effort anway

 

[auscyclefan94]

Team Radioshack has certainly reached their peak

 

[c&cfan]

Team Radioshack has certainly reached their peak

evans would fit perfectly in their roster. the leader.
maybe he is still young... whatever.

 

[jordan5000]

Note sure about has but who hasn't: Peter Sagan, Tony Martin, Pierre Rolland.
I also think Frandy haven't reached their peak and I think their TTing will improve and that's when they will be best, of course I'm not sure they will ever improve it.

 

[Midnightfright]

Top riders who I still think will go on to get better ie reach the peak -
Nibali
Andy Schleck
Breschel
EBH
Thomas
Kreuizger

I've tried hard to miss out the frightengly obvious ones

Riders who I think will decline steadily nxt year
Hushovd
Basso
Piti
Scarponi
David Millar

 

[ingsve]

I don't think Boonen is past his peak: he's past his sprinter peak, but not in the classics.

He was second in both Milan-San Remo and the Ronde van Vlaanderen in 2010 and he said he has never felt better than that before, but he came across a way too strong Cancellara. In 2011 his season was ruined by bad luck and crashes from the previous season still had some effect on him. I hope he'll be back to his full classics glory next year, but he's past his sprinting peak though.

Well it might be that Boonen just isn't as hungry anymore. He seems to give up in races he doesn't care about so sometimes it's hard to know if he can't follow or if he simply doesn't care. I doubt though that he do anything like win E3, De Ronde and Roubaix in the same season again which is why I think his peak even in the classics is behind him. He's still one of the 2-3 best classics riders in the world. It's just that extra supersharp edge that I think he's lost.

 

[bicing]

Leiphiemer no, he had his best season this year. He's just focusing on week stages and USA rather than GTs. May have past it when talking only about GTs.

Might I throw in some riders who I'm honestly not sure if they've peaked:
-Machado
-Brajkovic
-Horner
-Voeckler
-Scarponi
-Farrar
-Haussler
-Roche
-Flecha
-Lokfvist
-Hoogerland
-Arroyo
-Bakelandts
-Quickstep's very own random GC guy, Mr. DeWeert

Trying to figure out if those guys have reached the peak of their careers already or not - that's interest!

 

[Havetts]

Might I throw in some riders who I'm honestly not sure if they've peaked:
-Machado - nope
-Brajkovic - yep
-Horner - yep
-Voeckler - yep
-Scarponi - yep
-Farrar - nope
-Haussler - nope
-Roche - nope
-Flecha - yep
-Lokfvist - nope
-Hoogerland - nope
-Arroyo - nope
-Bakelandts - nope
-Quickstep's very own random GC guy, Mr. DeWeert - nope

My take on the riders you noted .

 

[auscyclefan94]

evans would fit perfectly in their roster. the leader.
maybe he is still young... whatever.

you really are full of it. Someone is past their peak after their best season of their career. Clearly your hate for Evans clouds rationality.

 

[Michielveedeebee]

you really are full of it. Someone is past their peak after their best season of their career. Clearly your hate for Evans clouds rationality.

I think it was a joke tbh

 

[blaxland]

I would have to say both Schleck brothers...Andy wont ever win the TDF and Frank has shown his best form years ago....