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Who is going to win the Giro after stage 16?
- Thread starter Escarabajo
- Start date
TD.
Still a flat and relatively long ITT ahead, so he'll take at least a minute and a half from Quintana and half of that, at least, from Nibali.
There are still some hard stages ahead and TD is tired from today's effort, but so are Nibali and Quintana. Pozzo and Zakarin aren't factors, so if they want to attack let them do it, because Nibali and Quintana will have to answer.
Quintana and Nibali will also attack (though I doubt that will be tomorrow), but they won't be doing it over the next 4 stages, because well, they aren't superhuman. I guess that's one of the letdowns of having so many hard stages in a short amount of time: eventually, all the riders will feel tired, so they'll hardly attack.
TD should follow Nairo and only him.
I may be wrong, but Nibali won't do anything particularly special on stages 18 and 19.
Still a flat and relatively long ITT ahead, so he'll take at least a minute and a half from Quintana and half of that, at least, from Nibali.
There are still some hard stages ahead and TD is tired from today's effort, but so are Nibali and Quintana. Pozzo and Zakarin aren't factors, so if they want to attack let them do it, because Nibali and Quintana will have to answer.
Quintana and Nibali will also attack (though I doubt that will be tomorrow), but they won't be doing it over the next 4 stages, because well, they aren't superhuman. I guess that's one of the letdowns of having so many hard stages in a short amount of time: eventually, all the riders will feel tired, so they'll hardly attack.
TD should follow Nairo and only him.
I may be wrong, but Nibali won't do anything particularly special on stages 18 and 19.
Voted Dumo but I think Nibali's chances are a lot better than Quintana's now.
At least he has to guts to attack unexpected and from far out.
At least he has to guts to attack unexpected and from far out.
I think Nairo needs to find somewhere between 1:15 - and 2:15 on Dumo over the next 4 stages. Not sure if he can but something tells me he will. That said, Nibali is not at all out of this thing. He's getting stronger and well, he's Nibali. The guy finds a way to way to win.
How cool would it be if somehow all 3 had a good shot at pink going into that last TT?
How cool would it be if somehow all 3 had a good shot at pink going into that last TT?
Nairo, he is still the best climber and have the best team, Movistar just need to be more aggressive
As it stands Dumoulin still has a great chance. Nairo and Nibali still need another superb performance in at least one of the two tougher mountain stages to come. It remains to be seen how much yesterday took out of TD, but he climbed well after his toilet mishap and its not as if Nibali and Quintana weren't going deep either.
Quintana has been losing well over 3 seconds per km to Dumoulin in TT's over recent seasons, and 4s per km during last weeks TT. It means he may still need around 2 minutes advantage to be safe on Sunday, with Nibali needing at least a minute if Dumoulin is still strong. It wont be easy for them to find 2 and a half minutes on Tom if he doesn't crack.
Quintana has been losing well over 3 seconds per km to Dumoulin in TT's over recent seasons, and 4s per km during last weeks TT. It means he may still need around 2 minutes advantage to be safe on Sunday, with Nibali needing at least a minute if Dumoulin is still strong. It wont be easy for them to find 2 and a half minutes on Tom if he doesn't crack.
I wish clean racing had happened on Tuesday without TD's UGH and we could have seen true results from that stage but others have gotten sick in other races and GTs and that is part of the whole deal but I prefer no drama and true results. So with what did happen NQ is going to have to be the choice.
As I've said before the Giro even started, TD will win this bike race (he only had 1 vote in the poll at that time).
Sh*tting himself on the roadside during the queen's stage will make this win even more EPIC.
Sh*tting himself on the roadside during the queen's stage will make this win even more EPIC.
I'm going with Nibali. Yesterday he showed he's able to put the screw on Quintana even on the hardest in the Giro climbs on altitude. No reason to think he won't improve his conditions further during the week. Nairo to get second. Zakarin and Dimoulin to fight for third spot.
Nibali. The 3rd week resurrection started yesterday and will continue throughout the week. It was very important psychologically for Nibali that he could put Quintana under pressure on the toughest of climbs, just like he gained a moral boost by seeing that he could distance the opposition on the descents. These are the moral wins, that Nibali thrives on, and it's a perfect way to go into the last week.
The signals given by Tom are worried: for me it will go down day by day.
Among nibali and quintana, I still see the second favorite, because he lost only downhill (10s in 15km) and on the climb nibali did not make a difference (he has attacked hard only in the last 700m but zaka and pozzovivo have come back and they have not lost more than 20 m) .
Finally quintana has the strongest team,by far . Nibali has to make time and only stage 18 suits him because the other two stages will are almost as MTFs with a solitary climb(which favor the Colombian)
Among nibali and quintana, I still see the second favorite, because he lost only downhill (10s in 15km) and on the climb nibali did not make a difference (he has attacked hard only in the last 700m but zaka and pozzovivo have come back and they have not lost more than 20 m) .
Finally quintana has the strongest team,by far . Nibali has to make time and only stage 18 suits him because the other two stages will are almost as MTFs with a solitary climb(which favor the Colombian)
Said it in the first thread already, Bob Jungels. Why? Cause he's awesome.
In all seriousness, I think Nibali has a real shot here. His form seems to be good and after yesterday he is in striking distance.
In all seriousness, I think Nibali has a real shot here. His form seems to be good and after yesterday he is in striking distance.
It is a tie between Quintana and TD. The resurrection of Nibali is great for the race but I have the gut feeling that he will drag Quintana into victory.
Summary:
TD: 55%
Quintana: 21%
Nibali: 19%
Other: 4%
+- decimal values.
Odds for betting:
Quintana: 1.25
TD: 1.25
Nibali: 3.33
As usual sentiments are involved in our poll! As it should since this is a forum integrated with fans not bookies.
TD: 55%
Quintana: 21%
Nibali: 19%
Other: 4%
+- decimal values.
Odds for betting:
Quintana: 1.25
TD: 1.25
Nibali: 3.33
As usual sentiments are involved in our poll! As it should since this is a forum integrated with fans not bookies.
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