Who will be in the top spots of Grand Tour GCs in the upcoming years

Aug 22, 2019
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From the Landa Thread:
He promised so much more as a young rider. I think like some other GC riders he hit his peak in his younger years. Not everyone can be a Valverde or an Evans etc. Unfortunately he probably spent too long in the Sky train like Porte but they both have had plenty of opportunities. Good to see Porte riding well in his last race as a GC leader but think of the missed opportunities. Now Pinot is looking down a similar path unless something radically changes. Quintana is another one who seems well past his best but if he keeps getting injured it's no surprise.
This did lead me to the question: What ist the future of Grand Tour Competitors going to look like?
With almost all the past favourites on a decline it is about time for a big change in the top ten of the GCs.
Past favourites (not only for wins but let's say top5) include: Froome, Thomas, Quintana, Uran, Pinot, Bardet, Landa, Nibali, Aru, Valverde, Porte, Dumoulin (to a certain extend), the Yates still not looking like real contenders, Dan Martin, and some others...

On the other hand you have young(er) riders that either have already proven themselves or show great promise:
Bernal, Pogacar, Evenepool, Martinez, Kämna, Kuss, Mas, Lopez among others I am forgetting tight now.

Well, and then there is Roglic in top shape and best age...

So, who will be in the top spots of Grand Tour GCs in the upcoming years?
 
Last edited:
From the Landa Thread:


This did lead me to the question: What ist the future of Grand Tour Competitors going to look like?
With almost all the past favourites on a decline it is about time for a big change in the top ten of the GCs.
Past favourites (not only for wins but let's say top5) include: Froome, Thomas, Quintana, Uran, Pinot, Bardet, Landa, Nibali, Aru, Valverde, Porte, Dumoulin (to a certain extend), the Yates still not looking like real contenders, Dan Martin, and some others...

On the other hand you have young(er) riders that either have already proven themselves or show great promise:
Bernal, Pogacar, Evenepool, Martinez, Kämna, Kuss, among others I am forgetting tight now.

Well, and then there is Roglic in top shape and best age...

So, who will be in the top spots of Grand Tour GCs in the upcoming years?
Top 10 is too wide ranging but for podiums or top five maybe Sivakov can be added to the ones you mentioned also Mas. Roglic got a late start in the sport so he should be around for a while yet. Martin is improving. One or two of the Australians might have the potential. I think the Tour podium is now out of reach for Quintana, Landa, Bardet, Nibali. Yates, Froome and Thomas are still possibilities but Froome has the age factor now to contend with. Pinot is like Porte was a few years ago with the difference being he has one podium a long time ago. Porte is now on his farewell race as a team leader and is showing what he can do if he stays upright and has good form. Pinot won't get many more more chances before the next generation takes over.
 
I don't think it's really true to say that Simon Yates, Dumoulin and Pinot are in decline. I think it's also a bit unfair to judge Thomas too harshly who might have just struggled for form after the lockdown and seems better now.
 
Reactions: Brullnux
Aug 22, 2019
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I don't think it's really true to say that Simon Yates, Dumoulin and Pinot are in decline. I think it's also a bit unfair to judge Thomas too harshly who might have just struggled for form after the lockdown and seems better now.
Fair point. But would you go as far and say that Pinot is going to podium a Grand Tour again? I can see S.Yates do it and Dumoulin maybe. They might even do it in the Giro this year. But Thomas for example looked almost untouchable for a while, which I think will rather not happen again.
 
Fair point. But would you go as far and say that Pinot is going to podium a Grand Tour again? I can see S.Yates do it and Dumoulin maybe. They might even do it in the Giro this year. But Thomas for example looked almost untouchable for a while, which I think will rather not happen again.
Yeah I think it is possible that Pinot could podium a GT again since he looked good enough to win one last year and we didn't really get to see his true form this year. I think it's possible that everything could come together for him, a little like it has for Lopez this year who normally seems to lose time unnecessarily at some point.
 
Ineos Yates could definitely podium if he was the protected rider and Dumoulin is nowhere near finished but the favourites tags are quickly switching over to younger riders. Would be great if Pog v Bernal could give us 5+ years of an Anquetil v Poupou or Lemons v Hainault rivalry
 
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I would love to do this, but I don't know how.
Look at the guys one would have thought around 2010 to be the most promising GT prospects. And then make a list of who became the most successfull (GT) riders in the last decade. Compare. :(

The only one who was so overwhelmingly strong in every regard that I could not imagine much going wrong was Evenepoel. I don't know if he comes back at 100%, but I'm assuming he does. His not-perfect technical abilities are his only weakness, and he could be a bit more prone to crashes than others. Otherwise he's a "safe bet". :expressionless: Well, there are no such things in cycling.
But really, the others, we can see potential, but I would not go any further.

One more aspect I would like to add is that we don't know what the future trends in race design will look like. Will there be more and more steep mountain stages, or will they go back to more time trialling? What else will happen in this area? More gravel? Technical stuff, descending, or more safety? Other formats?
 
I would love to do this, but I don't know how.
Look at the guys one would have thought around 2010 to be the most promising GT prospects. And then make a list of who became the most successfull (GT) riders in the last decade. Compare. :(

The only one who was so overwhelmingly strong in every regard that I could not imagine much going wrong was Evenepoel. I don't know if he comes back at 100%, but I'm assuming he does. His not-perfect technical abilities are his only weakness, and he could be a bit more prone to crashes than others. Otherwise he's a "safe bet". :expressionless: Well, there are no such things in cycling.
But really, the others, we can see potential, but I would not go any further.

One more aspect I would like to add is that we don't know what the future trends in race design will look like. Will there be more and more steep mountain stages, or will they go back to more time trialling? What else will happen in this area? More gravel? Technical stuff, descending, or more safety? Other formats?
I agree it's hard to know for sure. Of the young guys coming through 10 or so years ago I would say Sagan is the only one I was sure of back then that actually lived up to the hype. I didn't give any Sky rider a hope of winning the tour outside of Wiggins maybe.
 
Aug 22, 2019
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Best youngsters:

Tour
2010201120122013201420152016201720182019
Andy SchleckPierre RollandTejay van GarderenNairo QuintanaThibaut PinotNairo QuintanaAdam YatesSimon YatesPierre LatourEgan Bernal
Robert GesinkRein TaaramäeThibaut PinotAndrew TalanskyRomain BardetRomain BardetLouis MeintjesLouis MeintjesEgan BernalDavid Gaudu
Roman KreuzigerJérôme CoppelSteven KruijswijkMichał KwiatkowskiMichał KwiatkowskiWarren BarguilEmanuel BuchmannEmanuel BuchmannGuillaume MartinEnric Mas

Giro
2010201120122013201420152016201720182019
Richie PorteRoman KreuzigerUrán RigobertoBetancur CarlosQuintana NairoAru FabioJungels BobJungels BobLópez Miguel ÁngelLópez Miguel Ángel
Robert KišerlovskiSteven KruijswijkHenao SergioMajka RafałAru FabioFormolo DavideHenao SebastiánYates AdamCarapaz RichardSivakov Pavel
Bauke MollemaPeter StetinaBrambilla GianlucaKelderman WilcoMajka RafałFelline FabioConti ValerioFormolo DavideOomen SamCarthy Hugh


Looking at this, there are the Portes, Pinots, Bardets, Urans who all had fantastic results but not so much in terms of winning. With Aru, Quintana, Yates, Bernal, Carapaz there are also some of the winners of later GTs.
 

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