Who will be the first rider to win his first GT?

[PirazziAttacksVino]

So, with a lot of young riders proving their worth this year, it seems like we're up to quite an interesting generation of GC riders 5 years from now: guys like Quintana, Aru, Kelderman, Majka, Bardet, Pinot, Van Garderen, Talansky, Betancur, A.Yates, Formolo etc. However, there are some older riders who haven't won a GT yet, the biggest name on the list being probably Purito.

If we look at the last 3 riders who won their first GT, they all come from different worlds: Nairo Quintana, 24 years old, a young rider, potential future legend, Chris Froome, who did it at his prime, at 28 years old, and Chris Horner, who did it 1 month before turning 42.

So, who is, in your opinion, the first rider to win his first GT?

 

[Netserk]

Hmmm, for the upcoming Vuelta, I think it'll be between Froome and Quintana, so no new there. If Nibali does the Giro next year, he'll be my pick there. The Tour next year will be between Froome and Contador. So it's going to take some time. My best bet is that Nibali either doesn't start or win the Giro next year, and that the winner will be Uran or maybe even Aru if he starts instead of Nibali.

1st pick: Uran
2nd pick: Aru

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Chad Haga...

 

[The Hitch]

I think you mean next rider

None of these look that good to me. Probably Pinot, Aru, Majka, Uran in that order of ability but if pinot focuses just on the tour I can't see it. The others on the list- not without some big improvement. One of the Colombians or some bottle carrier maybe.

 

[pink_jersey]

Purito at next year Giro if Nibali doesn't participate.

 

[dduff442]

You forgot to mention Dan Martin, who has GC ambitions the credibility of which remain to be seen. Apparently he spent much of the winter doing wind tunnel work, though he's only done one TT so far this year which was no success even if he was only half-fit. There's no reason he shouldn't be a decent TTer though, is only 28 this year and has only really come to the fore since getting his allergies sorted out a couple of years ago.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Considering the age of the Spanish trio: Valverde, J-Rod and Contador (and the length of their pro careers), the Vuelta is the best bet for a new winner.

Nibali could very well dominate the Giro for a few years. Maybe Aru if Astana goes in with two cards.

Quintana and Froome (after Contador) could dominate the Tour for a number of years. Kelderman could step up.

I think an uphill sprinter in the Vuelta: Betancur or maybe a Spanish rider (hard to see anyone right now). Who really peaks for the Vuelta when the season starts? Wildcards will be in play when the above trio declines.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Aru .

 

[SeriousSam]

Pinot if he abandons the Tour. Otherwise Uran.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Purito at next year Giro if Nibali doesn't participate.

Rodriguez is probably done. Too old, too many crashes. Maybe if he only focuses on the Vuelta anymore, but I can't see that happening.

 

[Akuryo]

Suspicious said it perfectly after his TT-win at the Giro this year.

Rigoberto Urán Urán, so good they named him twice.

 

[Maaaaaaaarten]

I'm guessing Aru at the Giro is the best shot.

Pinot is about as good I think, but he will probably keep on focusing on the TDF.

 

[Anderis]

Talansky will win this year's Vuelta.

 

[pink_jersey]

I think I'am crazy but in this year Vuelta,Froome/Quintana can drop Purito in only 2 stages.

Maybe at Covadonga too but in rest I think in all mountain stages Purito can drop them.
Purito with his uphill sprint can gain time on Froome/Quintana on stages nr 6,14,18.I'm not saying he will win but I think he will be close.

 

[inthepink]

Andrew Talansky


All the young riders in pole are very good and what will separate them is not really their talent but their will to win

Talansky has that in buckets

Kelderman also has real will & determination

Konig talks the talk and is very talented but I think he would need a stronger team to win GT like the Vuelta

 

[MBotero]

I think Uran and TJVG are the best bet they are more versatile,they can climb and they can TT well.

 

[pink_jersey]

Tejay can climb only on grinding climbs(like the ones in Alpes).At climbs with changes of gradient he sucks(Pyrenees,Italian/Spanish climbs).Also he needs a GT with a heavy TT km to win(like 2012 TdF).

 

[Big Doopie]

Talansky will win this year's Vuelta.

agreed. the big diff between Talansky and the others there is that the guy can also TT with the best. the problem for pinot, bardet, etc… is that they will always lose time on flat tts. however, they are quickly getting rid of tts in GTs, so who knows...

not sure why he is not included in the poll after OP mentions him in post…(?)

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

Talansky might get a lucky Vuelta or something. Aru is my bet though. He will ride everyone of his wheel next May with ease (even Nibbles )

 

[HappyLoser]

1. Uran
2. Aru
3. Majka

 

[SeriousSam]

agreed. the big diff between Talansky and the others there is that the guy can also TT with the best. the problem for pinot, bardet, etc… is that they will always lose time on flat tts. however, they are quickly getting rid of tts in GTs, so who knows...

not sure why he is not included in the poll after OP mentions him in post…(?)

Is Talansky a better TTist than TVG?

 

[Jspear]

Uran, Aru, Talansky, Pinot in that order. But I think all of them might have to wait a little while. I think most of the GT's will be divided up between AC, Froome, Quintana and Nibbes. That is of course if they start the different GT's and don't crash out or anything.

 

[Jspear]

Is Talansky a better TTist than TVG?

If you compare their tt stats they are very close....Tjay might be a little better.

 

[cineteq]

Talansky
Kelderman
Van Garderen

 

[Netserk]

I think it's worth looking back, to see just how unpredictable it can be to guess the next rider to win his first GT:

Quintana
Horner
Froome
Wiggins
Hesjedal
Cobo
Evans
Nibali
Valverde
Sastre
Menchov
Contador
Di Luca
Vino
Landis
Basso

Of the more recent on that list, how many would have predicted their victory a year before? I doubt many in the spring of '13 predicted Quintana would win a GT the next year, although many probably thought he could do it at some point. Froome wasn't a surprise after the 2012 Tour. Horner, Wiggins, Hesjedal & Cobo probably surprised everybody (compared to a year before they won their GT). Many probably thought Evans had missed his chance after 2010. Nibali a little like Quintana, not a surprise (imo) that he'd win a GT, but after 2009 I didn't expect it already to be the next year. Etc.