Who will be the next Multiple Monument Winner?

[Asero831]

***** Cavendish, Sagan, Van Avermaet, Trepstra, Van Marcke, Alphilippe, Matthews
**** Kwiatkowski, Boom, Debusschere, Costa, Thomas
*** Stybar, Bardet, Henao, Bonifazio, Krueziger
** Nibali, Gasparotto, Elmiger, Wellens, Albasini, Aru, Fuglsang, Cimolai
* Rebellin, Van Summeren, Zaugg, Goss, Ciolek, Vanendert, Gallopin, Moreno, Caruso, Pozzovivo, Demare, Greipel, Swift, Bouhani, Felline, Benoot, Roelandts, Oss, Meintjes, Paolini, Lobato

 

[Velolover2]

Cavendish? How?

 

[SafeBet]

Re:

Cavendish? How?

MSR parcours likely won't change for the foreseeable future so Cav has a good chance.

 

[SeriousSam]

The only reasonable entry in that five star list is Terpstra, who has one monument to his name and will have two fairly good chances to add another next year, hence is somewhat likely to become the next multiple monument winner.

Cav can only win MSR and doesn't seem close to the new breed of sprinters that win there. Still, he's got one and it's not inconceivable he wins MSR again, so ok.

Greg and Sep don't win races, never mind monuments.

Sagan has been reduced to fighting for stages at TA. And hasn't even won a monument yet either. Miles away.

Alaphilippe has done well in exactly one monument. If he doesn't prove to be a flash in the pan, he may well win multiple but he isn't the next multiple winner.

Matthews, lol.

The next multiple monument winner will be someone who has currently won one.

 

[Velolover2]

Re: Re:

Cavendish? How?

MSR parcours likely won't change for the foreseeable future so Cav has a good chance.

I thought he meant two monuments in a year because Cavendish can't do that.

It's very hard to see a rider winning more than one monument in a year other than Degenkolb and Kristoff next year.

 

[May0maniac]

It's very hard to predict, a few years ago everyone would have named Sagan, hell, 2 years ago Betancur seemed to be one of the guys that could dominate the hilly classics in the next few years.

 

[Nick C.]

I don't get the question. Gilbert already is a multiple monument winner.

 

[Netserk]

Current riders who have won one monument (sorted my most recent win):

Terpstra
Ciolek
Zaugg
Vansummeren
Nuyens
Goss
Cavendish
Pozzato
Petacchi
Rebellin

Neither will win Lombardia, but Cav and Ciolek could win Sanremo again next year. Terpstra could then win Ronde or another Roubaix, while the rest probably won't even be near to win another one (sorry Pozzato).

Of those without any wins, I think Sagan, Vanmarcke, Kwiatkowski and Stybar are most likely to win twice before the three who already have one. Sagan can win in three different and have a good sprint, so if he can reach his '13 level or a better one, he can definitely win several monuments. Vanmarcke could very well be the next rider to do the double and win Ronde and Roubaix in the same year. Kwiatkowski will have it a little harder, but with time I think he'll get there, Lombardia should be within his reach and he might snatch Liege one year. Stybar lacks sprint and aggressiveness and he is only co-captain, but a good cobbles rider is more likely to do quickly win two monuments.

My ranking:
Terpstra
Cav
Sagan
Vanmarcke
Kwiatkowski
Stybar
Ciolek

 

[rghysens]

Re:

Current riders who have won one monument (sorted my most recent win):

Terpstra
Ciolek
Zaugg
Vansummeren
Nuyens
Goss
Cavendish
Pozzato
Petacchi
Rebellin

Neither will win Lombardia, but Cav and Ciolek could win Sanremo again next year. Terpstra could then win Ronde or another Roubaix, while the rest probably won't even be near to win another one (sorry Pozzato).

And Nuyens has retired

 

[Netserk]

My bad, he has been some anonymous recently that I hadn't noticed

 

[jaylew]

Re:

Vanmarcke could very well be the next rider to do the double and win Ronde and Roubaix in the same year.

I'd give Van Avermaet a much better chance than Vanmarcke. I just think he's a superior rider. Not to mention the fact that he can conceivably be in the pointy end of all 5 as I believe he's got at least a top 12 in every monument.

 

[Panda Claws]

***** Cavendish, Sagan, Van Avermaet, Trepstra, Van Marcke, Alphilippe, Matthews
**** Kwiatkowski, Boom, Debusschere, Costa, Thomas
*** Stybar, Bardet, Henao, Bonifazio, Krueziger
** Nibali, Gasparotto, Elmiger, Wellens, Albasini, Aru, Fuglsang, Cimolai
* Rebellin, Van Summeren, Zaugg, Goss, Ciolek, Vanendert, Gallopin, Moreno, Caruso, Pozzovivo, Demare, Greipel, Swift, Bouhani, Felline, Benoot, Roelandts, Oss, Meintjes, Paolini, Lobato

Cavendish: Can only win MSR and that race is no longer ridden like it was 10 years ago so I cannot see him dominate that one.
Sagan: Has proven to be capable of winning 2/5 and perhaps 3/5. If he can find his 2013 form again and keep it along with some better tactics he'll win several/dominate. If not, he'll be happy to get one.
Van Avermaet: Likely to end up like Nuyens in my opinion, with one sole monument win.
Terpstra: Strong cyclist who won a monument, partially because he was on a team with Boonen. Has the potential to win more, but is not likely to be the strongest rider or dominate.
Vanmarcke: If he can get back to a better level I give him a better chance to pull of a Cobblestone double than Terpstra.
Alaphilippe: Needs to confirm next year.
Matthews: I can see him win MSR yeah, but it won't be easy wins vs the likes of Degenkolb.
Kwiatkowski: Huge talent and I can even imagine him winning RVV, but he's still at 0 and I wonder if he has it n really tough races yet.
Boom: May snatch a PR someday, but not one to dominate.
Debusschere: Do you happen to be from Belgium?
Costa: Has not proven to be able to beat the best in Liège or Lombardia.
Thomas: I do not think he has it, but that might just be my opinion.
Stybar: Talented, but not one to dominate.
Bardet: Still 'just' a talent when it comes to monuments.
Henao: Still 'just' a talent when it comes to monuments.
Bonifazio: Name rings a bell, but nothing more.
Kreuziger: Still a lot to prove in this area.
Nibali: Perhaps, if he stops peaking for july only.
Gasparotto: No.
Elmiger: A top-10 does not make someone a potential multiple monument winner.
Wellens: Still a lot to prove.
Albasini: No.
Aru: I do not see him as a classics man.
Fuglsang: Doubt it.
Cimolai: Not enough raw talent.
Rebellin: Too old.
Vansummeren: Too untalented.
Zaugg: Too untalented.
Goss: If he gets back on track, perhaps a 2nd MSR. Likely? No.
Ciolek: He'll need to get pretty lucky.
Vanendert: Too untalented.
Gallopin: No.
Moreno: No.
Caruso: No.
Pozzovivo: Let him stick to GT's.
Demare: Perhaps, a lot of growth is still possible for him.
Greipel: 2x MSR? Not likely.
Swift: Too untalented.
Bouhanni: See Demare.
Felline: I don't see it.
Benoot: See Demare.
Roelandts: Perhaps he'll do a Nuyens and win one, but that'll be it.
Oss: Nope.
Meintjens: No.
Paolini: No.
Lobato: No.

Not meant as criticism to your post, just my opinion on the riders you listed.

 

[DBotero]

***** Cavendish, Sagan, Van Avermaet, Trepstra, Van Marcke, Alphilippe, Matthews
**** Kwiatkowski, Boom, Debusschere, Costa, Thomas
*** Stybar, Bardet, Henao, Bonifazio, Krueziger
** Nibali, Gasparotto, Elmiger, Wellens, Albasini, Aru, Fuglsang, Cimolai
* Rebellin, Van Summeren, Zaugg, Goss, Ciolek, Vanendert, Gallopin, Moreno, Caruso, Pozzovivo, Demare, Greipel, Swift, Bouhani, Felline, Benoot, Roelandts, Oss, Meintjes, Paolini, Lobato

Poor EBH not getting at least one star

 

[BigMac]

...
Costa: Has not proven to be able to beat the best in Liège or Lombardia.
...

Yes for Liège, wouldn't be so harsh on Lombardia though. Last year Costa and Tim Wellens looked the strongest in the finale, both being the first of the atackers and looking reletively better than the rest on those slopes, but then again, others might have just been modest in their moves prior to the last k, Dan Martin mainly - still, Costa managed to sprint for third after digging deeper than most. Either way, if he snatches a monument win, I don't think it will be because he was the strongest on the day, but rather the most astute. Take this year's Liège as an example: he looked to be the weakest link on the incline up to Ans, but still finished fourth. It will be something like that, and I would never discard him, especially for Lombardia as it is. He also looked good on MSR before he crashed out, so we never know if he would go with Gerraint and the the two make it, or pull a stronger attack.

And another yes for most of the rest, too.

 

[bala v]

Niki Terpstra, then Michal Kwiatkowski

 

[Nick C.]

Costa would fit under the Dan Martin scenario. I could see him winning Lombardia and if MSR ever goes in a small group. Even though he got away in Flander , I think with the probable waning of Boonen, Terpstra's chances are very slim. I could see Cav winning MSR, but has he contested the finish since he won? If so I can't recall it. GVA has other issues. Sep has time on his side. If Degenkolb and Kristoff can then why not Sagan. He has been in the final group at MSR, Flanders and Roubaix. I would hate to write off a 25 or so year old as being past it.

 

[del1962]

If three years ago someone mentioned Dan Martin many would have dismissed it

Riders not mentioned that might just do it in LBL/Lombardia Majka, Gesink and Slagter.

 

[Jspear]

Terpstra probably has the greatest chance since he already has one under his belt. Perhaps Cav could if they keep Milan the same as this year and he doesn't have any mechanical issues. Alphilippe would be my next favorite. I could see him grabbing LBL and Lombardia as soon as next year if he continues to progress and his stars align.

 

[doperhopper]

Re:

Costa would fit under the Dan Martin scenario. I could see him winning Lombardia and if MSR ever goes in a small group. Even though he got away in Flander , I think with the probable waning of Boonen, Terpstra's chances are very slim. I could see Cav winning MSR, but has he contested the finish since he won? If so I can't recall it. GVA has other issues. Sep has time on his side. If Degenkolb and Kristoff can then why not Sagan. He has been in the final group at MSR, Flanders and Roubaix. I would hate to write off a 25 or so year old as being past it.

We all know Sagan was regarded as a classics prodigy when Degenkolb and Kristoff were no competition... two years later, and they are exactly what Sag was supposed to be and they are even faster. Suddenly there's no way the poor guy can win anything, won't drop D or K, especially if they have teammates till the finale (which Sagan lacked in Cannon badly, had to chase too much etc., even now inTS it's not ideal).

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Re:

If three years ago someone mentioned Dan Martin many would have dismissed it

Riders not mentioned that might just do it in LBL/Lombardia Majka, Gesink and Slagter.

I'd have named him a LONG time before Simon Gerrans though. Martin had proven himself able to get up in the top 10-15 of Liège and Lombardia, and a willingness to go on the attack and take risks before his first monument; Gerrans had gone from being a moderately interesting stagehunter to somebody who would wait until the final hill then get blown away by the Gilberts and Valverdes of the world on the uphill ramp and finish about 7th, and who wasn't a strong enough climber for Lombardia. Martin at least showed how he could win a monument (by being in the right move) whereas Gerrans had me baffled as to how he would win one since he had dropped all tactical sense to follow rather than lead and, until his sprint had developed to the point where he was able to win these, and races were becoming defensive enough that he could get over the hills with the leaders at Liège, he just seemed a step off the right capabilities.

Surprised nobody at all has mentioned Tom Dumoulin, his País Vasco TT shows he can put the power down on the short steep ramps as well as having the kind of TT engine necessary. Thomas by rights should be able to do it but with Sky insisting on overworking themselves in the early part of the race and his now traditional plan of staying on his bike to be strong in all the buildup races and then crashing in the big ones tends to be the biggest problem for him. I think Tony Gallopin is a better shout than a single star in that list, because I think he can win races the same way as Dan Martin has - by being slightly underestimated and by having the guts to try something at the right time.

 

[BigMac]

Re:

If three years ago someone mentioned Dan Martin many would have dismissed it

Riders not mentioned that might just do it in LBL/Lombardia Majka, Gesink and Slagter.

Slagter has been mentioned more than a few times as a possible contender for those races. Gesink to some extent, too. A deal of faith is always placed on him, but he hasn't been particularly lucky these years. His win and impressive display of strenght in Québec two years ago made people wonder about an eventual return to victories, as he has always been a consistent rider. I don't know why he didn't race Liège after a promising 25th in Flèche, I must have missed something. Perhaps his sensations from the injured knee were not the best, or didn't want to force it too much. As far as Majka goes, I don't rate his chances in the Ardennes, and if Lombardia keeps last year's finale, I don't foresee any victory either. But then again, he ended his season in USA Pro Challenge, so we never got to see it.

 

[SafeBet]

Re: Re:

Surprised nobody at all has mentioned Tom Dumoulin, his País Vasco TT shows he can put the power down on the short steep ramps as well as having the kind of TT engine necessary.

Many were expecting him to step up this year, but his Ardennes campaign was very anonymous.
I'm not so sure he can handle the distance. Still room to grow though.

 

[greenedge]

***** Stybar, GVA, Terpstra,
**** Thomas, Kwiatowski, Gallopin
*** Alaphillipe, Matthews, Vanmarcke, Sagan, Boom, Demare, Costa, Wellens, Slagter

 

[gunara]

Sagan can benefit from a couple of bad seasons to be a less marked rider than he once was, and with the right form building and happier team I can still see him to be the likeliest to win 3 without needing as much luck as others.