Tour de France Who will win the 2024 Tour de France? First rest day poll.

[Netserk]

 

[Peyroteo94]

My vote went for Jonas. He is better than most people think.

 

[slim charles]

Tadej. Vingegaard is stronger than anyone thought but it just doesn't make sense that he can keep this up after missing so much cause of the injury

 

[dercuforever]

Voted Pogacar.
I think he will smoke everyone in the Pyrenées, including Vingegaard. Once he has 2 min on him and Remco, he can just watch Remco attack and force Vingegaard to chase with his team.
Or just make Aysuo or Almeida attack.
Another scenario is that Remco is ultra strong, and sets a strong tempo every mountain finish, but loses sprints for bonus to Pogacar.

 

[ice&fire]

The only way I get it right at one of these polls is voting for a different rider every week.

 

[Nick2413]

Tempted to vote Vingegaard but my expectation is still that he fades in week 3. I don’t think Pogacar has gained as much time as he expected though, and I don’t see it being a runaway victory.

 

[Barnacle Bill]

Ayuso is riding smart and saving energy.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Still think it's Pogacar, it will be harder for Vingegaard to have the level to drop him big time towards the end of the race in particular when his prep has been this compromised. And between bonus seconds and the final TT, I think he'll need to take more than the current 1:15...

 

[Berniece]

I still hope Evenepoel will win it, chances are very slim

 

[Escarabajo]

Ayuso is riding smart and saving energy.

Sure, the problem is that He shares the same team with Pogacar. LOL.

 

[Gigs_98]

It's extremely hard to call, but the feeling that Vingegaard will get it again is growing and growing so I voted for him.
The one thing that's shocking to me is that I'm not actually completely counting out Remco. There are question marks about both Pogacar and Vingegaard and Remco, who already looked bloody good on Galibier, is the rider who from the outset said he goes into the race a bit undercooked, peaking for the third week. Like, it's still not a big chance, but I wouldn't quite rule it out entirely. He's looked super strong.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Well, the first part of the race delivered interesting stages and the battle between the Big4 is still far from decided. As expected, Pogacar is very strong but he can't sleep too well as his kryptonite (Vingegaard) is showing great level considering the circumstances. Evenepoel is probably in the form of his life (at least as far as stage-racing in concerned) and is still very close to Pogacar. Rogla's presence is more muted and is about survival but he's succeeded in this so far and is still in the game for top3 and his form could rise for the decisive stages.

So what's next? The long spell of "boring" stages (as Pogacar called them) was cancelled today and actually stage 11 can be quite interesting. I think Vingo will remain in defensive mode until the Pyrenees at least and on Wednesday Pogacar plus maybe Remco will try attacking further from the finish (maybe they can drop Rogla but dropping Vingo will be very hard, which could result in the group coming together again). I'm expecting Pogacar's attack in the Pyrenees to put more time into his rivals but I don't rule out Vingo's move as well. How likely is their cooperation (i.e. on Plateau de Beille) to distance Remco? (I rate it 50/50). IMO after the Pyrenees Pogacar's advantage over Remco and Rogla will definitely increase while over Vingo will stay similar or slightly increase.

Then we have the famous 3rd week, especially the last weekend. Will Vingo go absolutely thermonuclear? Logic says: no. There won't be Combloux 2.0. The Dane will start fading towards the end (instead of getting stronger). How about Pogacar? He won't be at his best at the end as well (yes, GT double attempt), no big showings in Isola and Nice anymore. It will be all about defending and holding wheels. Maybe he will lose time but he will manage to stay in the jersey. The final gaps won't be that big.

 

[Medvind]

Vinge performed better during the first than I expected, especially on stage 2, 7 and 9. So will he win the tour? Depends on a couple of things. If Pog fades a bit and Vinge doesn't, and if Vinge's team can ride nearly as good strong as last year than Vinge will probably win. Ineos and Bora will chase the podium so they might help Jumbo LAB pull in the mountains. But I would be a bit more confident if an in form Kuss was there, and a strong van Aert. Without a strong van Aert it will be hard for Jumbo LAB to get a satellite rider up the rode that can help Vinge in the final, like on Hautacam, UAE will chase down any attacker.

I say it is 40-60 Vinge wins. Pog then.

 

[RedheadDane]

I haven't got a clue.
I *** love it!

 

[Blanco]

I still stand by what I've said before the start:
Primoz Roglic will win this bike race.
Pogacar will fade in the 3rd week.
Mountains will be too tough for Remco.
Vingegaard is surprisingly good, and he will get better, but it won't be enough...

 

[Cookster15]

Impossible to judge. The tests so far are not hard enough and inconclusive and we are all still guessing what might happen.

Pogacar might fade due to the Giro. But when Contador attempted the double in 2011 that was after a much harder Giro and Contador was much weaker than what Pog has shown so far. But Contador was actually stronger in the final week except for the Galibier stage 18 when he cracked. I think Pogacar is a different (higher level) beast to AC.

For Vingegaard he keeps hanging in there against all logic and reason and we then think about his feared level in the 3rd week and his unmatched climbing level as displayed the last two years. But the interruption of his huge April 4 crash and the resulting serious injuries absolutely must dent his 3rd week level.

Whatever happens to the big two I think Remco is doing a great job - but stages 14 and 15 will tell more about his prospects.

Roglic I don’t know what to think. If he wins I’d be very happy for him. But it seems unlikely.

We know a lot more after stages 14 and 15 in the Pyrenees.

 

[Cookster15]

The long spell of "boring" stages (as Pogacar called them) was cancelled today and actually stage 11 can be quite interesting

Stage 11 looks like a Roglic stage. He needs to take time there.

 

[Medvind]

I still stand by what I've said before the start:
Primoz Roglic will win this bike race.
Pogacar will fade in the 3rd week.
Mountains will be too tough for Remco.
Vingegaard is surprisingly good, and he will get better, but it won't be enough...

Haha, I like the confidence in Rogla!

 

[Maxss]

Voted Jonas cause i'm a fan, but honestly speaking, it's tough to look beyond Tadej. When you take everything into account, they have the best package. Best team, best rider, yellow jersey.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

We have finish all the time trialing and all the gravel, and a certain Basque climbing 'domestique' is still sitting comfortably in the top 10 with all his favoured terrain ahead...

 

[Izzyeviel]

I'm sticking with what I said after stage 2. I've seen enough, I'm calling it for Jonas.

 

[glassmoon]

99% Pog - he'll not fade because of Giro like many are saying - he had 0 opposition there and basically won it with ease.

Still, Jonas is far better than I was expected him to be after that crash. Truly remarkable recovery.

 

[Bolder]

Pogacar.

UAE have by far the best mountain team. I don't think any domestique on Visma, Bora, QS or Ineos can trouble Almeida, Yates or Ayuso. I don't think we're going to see any more intra squad friction, either. Pogacar would have to crack to lose significant time, and he's showing zero weakness so far.

 

[Medvind]

Pogacar.

UAE have by far the best mountain team. I don't think any domestique on Visma, Bora, QS or Ineos can trouble Almeida, Yates or Ayuso. I don't think we're going to see any more intra squad friction, either. Pogacar would have to crack to lose significant time, and he's showing zero weakness so far.

Considering how Pog cracked last year the way to do it is probably to force Pog to ride hard all day on a tough high mountain stage. Then it doesn't matter so much that he has some superdoms. Question is if Jumbo LAB has team to do that and if any other team are ready to help them. Maybe Ineos? CRod best terrain are hard mountain stages late in the race, that's where he can make up ground.

 

[ElDesordenado]

I think Vingegaard will continue riding in Pogacar's wheel, then decide the race in the final three stages. Smaller victory margin than the previous years, but I don't think it'll be a problem to take 1:45-2 minutes.