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Tour de France Who will win the 2024 Tour de France? Pre-race poll.

Page 7 - Get up to date with the latest news, scores & standings from the Cycling News Community.

Who will win the 2024 Tour de France?


  • Total voters
    207
  • Poll closed .
Pogacar to win the Tour and complete the double for the first time since 1998.

Nobody will come close to him. If Roglic stays on his bike without crashing, he might get within 5mins. Vingegaard will try valiantly but will only get top 5 given his lack of prep and injury recovery. Remco will be resigned to stage hunting.
 
Old cycling fans will say that what matters is the anticipation before the Tour...the real Tour happens while we speculate about what will happen in the Tour.
The human brain gets huge rewards for anticipation. One of the logical fallacies of humans. Right up there with the idea of a "free will".

Edit: not logical fallacies; biological sciences lol. Thanks @Rechtschreibfehler for noticing for me :)

Also I'm not saying the absence of free will is a biological fact, biology is only part of it 🤣
 
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The human brain gets huge rewards for anticipation. One of the logical fallacies of humans. Right up there with the idea of a "free will".

Yet we are anticipatory beings, I don't see a fallacy in that. It makes us rather special in many ways. To truly anticipate you have to have access to a phenomenon before it is actually present within your senses. For this reason (of course not as dogmatically stated as I do now) Blumeberg claims that the trap is the first triumph of the concept (des Begriffs). In contrast to rumours stating otherwise, the future is open, if we didn't anticipate we'd be lost.
 
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A bit of an ambiguous interview with Zeeman about Matteo Jorgenson:


He says right now he's the third best rider in the world behind Pog & Van der Poel... but he also says he'll be riding to support Jonas V in the Tour... but he then also says Jorgenson might get his chances in GC if Vingegaard drops out of contention.

My opinion? I've seen this movie before, i.e. it's called the Tour de France 2021. Vingegaard went there to 'learn' & ride for Rog. In effect he was actually their secret weapon. The Ventoux later showed that he certainly had more in his arsenal than mere domestique legs, i.e. his form was planned all along because Jumbo wanted two pronged attacks with Rog & Vinge against Pog. Fast forward to 2024 & I think Jorgenson is probably much stronger than people imagine, i.e. Visma could basically be doing with him what they did with Vingegaard 3 years ago.

So my 'dark horse' vote for the podium (or more depending on race events...) is Matteo Jorgenson. I mean once upon a time people thought Vingegaard could never compete for the Tour either (myself included!). Big things have small beginnings.
 
View: https://www.instagram.com/p/CzEjVMYMwWm/?igsh=cWp5dmJzcW15ZGs=


A bit of an ambiguous interview with Zeeman about Matteo Jorgenson:


He says right now he's the third best rider in the world behind Pog & Van der Poel... but he also says he'll be riding to support Jonas V in the Tour... but he then also says Jorgenson might get his chances in GC if Vingegaard drops out of contention.

My opinion? I've seen this movie before, i.e. it's called the Tour de France 2021. Vingegaard went there to 'learn' & ride for Rog. In effect he was actually their secret weapon. The Ventoux later showed that he certainly had more in his arsenal than mere domestique legs, i.e. his form was planned all along because Jumbo wanted two pronged attacks with Rog & Vinge against Pog. Fast forward to 2024 & I think Jorgenson is probably much stronger than people imagine, i.e. Visma could basically be doing with him what they did with Vingegaard 3 years ago.

So my 'dark horse' vote for the podium (or more depending on race events...) is Matteo Jorgenson. I mean once upon a time people thought Vingegaard could never compete for the Tour either (myself included!). Big things have small beginnings.
I like that more people are coming around to my Jorgenson shout out last week.
 

With 5 days to go I basically looked at the startlist, looked at the teams... & looked at the names in the management & staff of the teams & I'm like "Yep, Jorgenson is going to kick some a**".

People talk about "miracles" like they're exclusive to some riders. They're not. We get generational talents every 5 minutes & they're always in the same teams.

This is no reference to otherworldly goings on either, i.e. the truth is we have plenty of evidence Mathieu Heijboer knows what he's doing. Jorgenson's results since March reflect this. He basically could have/or even should have won the Dauphiné. He's the real deal.
 
Implied probability to win TDF using odds from today. Numbers not too different from the poll.

Edit: I made one mistake typing the numbers in. Rodriguez has the same odds as Ayuso at 33:1 or 2.94%.

odds.png
And then there is actually everbody's form, which we can't properly assess until the end of week one.
 
Yet we are anticipatory beings, I don't see a fallacy in that. It makes us rather special in many ways. To truly anticipate you have to have access to a phenomenon before it is actually present within your senses. For this reason (of course not as dogmatically stated as I do now) Blumeberg claims that the trap is the first triumph of the concept (des Begriffs). In contrast to rumours stating otherwise, the future is open, if we didn't anticipate we'd be lost.
Well it used to be written in the stars and prophecies, but then analysis of imperical data came along, statistical probabilities and so forth, but often a hunch still triumphs.
 
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With 5 days to go I basically looked at the startlist, looked at the teams... & looked at the names in the management & staff of the teams & I'm like "Yep, Jorgenson is going to kick some a**".

People talk about "miracles" like they're exclusive to some riders. They're not. We get generational talents every 5 minutes & they're always in the same teams.

This is no reference to otherworldly goings on either, i.e. the truth is we have plenty of evidence Mathieu Heijboer knows what he's doing. Jorgenson's results since March reflect this. He basically could have/or even should have won the Dauphiné. He's the real deal.
I believe I have good hunchs about riders and since seeing Jorgenson this year I have stated multiple times that despite his hulking height he will likely podium in the Tour.
 
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He says right now he's the third best rider in the world behind Pog & Van der Poel... but he also says he'll be riding to support Jonas V in the Tour... but he then also says Jorgenson might get his chances in GC if Vingegaard drops out of contention.

My opinion? I've seen this movie before, i.e. it's called the Tour de France 2021. Vingegaard went there to 'learn' & ride for Rog. In effect he was actually their secret weapon. The Ventoux later showed that he certainly had more in his arsenal than mere domestique legs, i.e. his form was planned all along because Jumbo wanted two pronged attacks with Rog & Vinge against Pog. Fast forward to 2024 & I think Jorgenson is probably much stronger than people imagine, i.e. Visma could basically be doing with him what they did with Vingegaard 3 years ago.

So my 'dark horse' vote for the podium (or more depending on race events...) is Matteo Jorgenson. I mean once upon a time people thought Vingegaard could never compete for the Tour either (myself included!). Big things have small beginnings.
Visma still begging for emirates to attack Vingegaard with everything in the first stages.
 
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A bit of an ambiguous interview with Zeeman about Matteo Jorgenson:


He says right now he's the third best rider in the world behind Pog & Van der Poel... but he also says he'll be riding to support Jonas V in the Tour... but he then also says Jorgenson might get his chances in GC if Vingegaard drops out of contention.

My opinion? I've seen this movie before, i.e. it's called the Tour de France 2021. Vingegaard went there to 'learn' & ride for Rog. In effect he was actually their secret weapon. The Ventoux later showed that he certainly had more in his arsenal than mere domestique legs, i.e. his form was planned all along because Jumbo wanted two pronged attacks with Rog & Vinge against Pog. Fast forward to 2024 & I think Jorgenson is probably much stronger than people imagine, i.e. Visma could basically be doing with him what they did with Vingegaard 3 years ago.

So my 'dark horse' vote for the podium (or more depending on race events...) is Matteo Jorgenson. I mean once upon a time people thought Vingegaard could never compete for the Tour either (myself included!). Big things have small beginnings.
OK, bear with me here(soon someone is gonna belive am LRCP biggest stan 🤣); there was one guy who openly believed in Vingegaard already 2021; Lanterne Rouge Patrick Broe. Beginning autumn 2024 he's part of their vlab DS squad. I believe part of what has been his work until now has been scouting. So I'll say this analysis might sadly be correct. If LR called it 2021 and was scouting last year... you do the math. Either he knew from others or from himself. Doesn't matter, it just another brick in the wall.

Whoever makes the decisions Vlab is very instrumental in how they see human beings, that's for certain.
 
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I’m steadfast in expecting Jorgensen to not make it on the podium. I don’t see it. Maybe in a couple years he can be a contender for GTs without the top guys in them. He’s decent at one week races and ok in classics, but hasn’t really shown enough to mix with the best on big climbing stages and deep into 3 week races. Puy de Dome last year was a valiant attempt but this Tour can be expected to go like that at best for him. But he has room to improve over time.
 
OK, bear with me here; there was one guy who openly believed in Vingegaard 2021; Lanterne Rouge Patrick Broe. Beginning autumn 2024 he's part of their vlab DS squad. I believe part of what has been his work until now has been scouting. So I'll say this analysis might sadly be correct. If LR called it 2021 and was scouting last year... you do the math. Either he knew from others or from himself. Doesn't matter, I just added another anecdote to jive with this theory.
It's all just Greek to me.
 
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OK, bear with me here; there was one guy who openly believed in Vingegaard 2021; Lanterne Rouge Patrick Broe. Beginning autumn 2024 he's part of their vlab DS squad. I believe part of what has been his work until now has been scouting. So I'll say this analysis might sadly be correct. If LR called it 2021 and was scouting last year... you do the math. Either he knew from others or from himself. Doesn't matter, I just added another anecdote to jive with this theory.
When Vingegaard showed he could’ve beat Roglic in Itzulia 21 it was enough to at least make us wonder. But Ventoux is when it really started to become clear he could be a contender.
 
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OK, bear with me here(soon someone is gonna belive am LRCP biggest stan 🤣); there was one guy who openly believed in Vingegaard already 2021; Lanterne Rouge Patrick Broe. Beginning autumn 2024 he's part of their vlab DS squad. I believe part of what has been his work until now has been scouting. So I'll say this analysis might sadly be correct. If LR called it 2021 and was scouting last year... you do the math. Either he knew from others or from himself. Doesn't matter, it just another brick in the wall.

Whoever makes the decisions Vlab is very instrumental in how they see human beings, that's for certain.

On the other hand analysis, on where Rogla barely made top 10 climbers list, that was way off, not to say biased.
 
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