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Tour de France Who will win the 2024 Tour de France? Pre-race poll.

Page 8 - Get up to date with the latest news, scores & standings from the Cycling News Community.

Who will win the 2024 Tour de France?


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When Vingegaard showed he could’ve beat Roglic in Itzulia 21 it was enough to at least make us wonder. But Ventoux is when it really started to become clear he could be a contender.
Did this actually happen? I don’t remember the race and results don’t tell the whole story. What I see from the stage results is Vingegaard losing time in the ITT and every climbing stage except one, where he broke away with some other non-contenders and was not chased by Roglic (teammate), Pogacar, McNulty, etc. It doesn’t *read* like he showed he could’ve won had he been allowed to race for the win.
 
At the time, no not really.
I agree that Roglic didn’t demonstrate world beating climbing form in 2022 due to knee issues in the early season, fractured vertebrae in the later season, plus the shoulder issue, and then he had surgery (at the age of 32(?)), so it was reasonable to have him somewhat low on the evidence, but outlets like Cyclingnews putting Vingegaard at #2 in the form ranking are clearly giving Vingegaard credit for historical performances and ignoring the recent evidence; the climbing ranking CyclistAbi keeps referencing did not do the same for Roglic. I don’t personally understand why it is so galling, though.
 
Top 10 ever? Not even close
 
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The end is always nice when this list pops up, “whilst still remaining a top climber.” Looking back Ayuso and Evenepoel were a swing and a miss for their rankings.
 
Did this actually happen? I don’t remember the race and results don’t tell the whole story. What I see from the stage results is Vingegaard losing time in the ITT and every climbing stage except one, where he broke away with some other non-contenders and was not chased by Roglic (teammate), Pogacar, McNulty, etc. It doesn’t *read* like he showed he could’ve won had he been allowed to race for the win.
Maybe not definitely better but he was almost s.t going into stage 6 where the peloton broke apart into 2 groups early and he was stuck in the Pogacar group behind Roglic. Beating Pogacar overall was pretty big too.
 

MF Na1chaca has been on the Ayuso bandwagon for years, usually interpreting his data super positively whilst downplaying other rider data (often Rog's). This is the same guy who totally believed Ayuso would beat Rog in the Vuelta last year & be good enough to win the Tour this year.

Moral of the story? Just because your social media profile reads "Data Analyst at Lanterne Rouge Media", it doesn't mean your opinion is suddenly more enlightened than the average forum user & you're not tainted by bias or wishful thinking.

That's basically a lot of words to day that guy is full of sh*t.
 
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MF Na1chaca has been on the Ayuso bandwagon for years, usually interpreting his data super positively whilst downplaying other rider data (often Rog's). This is the same guy who totally believed Ayuso would beat Rog in the Vuelta last year & be good enough to win the Tour this year.

Moral of the story? Just because your social media profile reads "Data Analyst at Lanterne Rouge Media", it doesn't mean your opinion is suddenly more enlightened than the average forum user & you're not tainted by bias or wishful thinking.

That's basically a lot of words to day that guy is full of sh*t.
There were definitely some bad takes in here (Remco #2 ahead of Pogacar despite being arguably outclimbed by Mas in the Vuelta, Jay Vine #5 (though he climbed really well in the 2022 Vuelta). It wasn’t unreasonable to expect Ayuso to continue to improve at his age, though. And for Roglic to decline based on 2022 results, injuries, and age. I agree, though, that the guy consistently disrespects and underrates Roglic for some reason.
 
There were definitely some bad takes in here (Remco #2 ahead of Pogacar despite being arguably outclimbed by Mas in the Vuelta, Jay Vine #5 (though he climbed really well in the 2022 Vuelta). It wasn’t unreasonable to expect Ayuso to continue to improve at his age, though. And for Roglic to decline based on 2022 results, injuries, and age. I agree, though, that the guy consistently disrespects and underrates Roglic for some reason.

Disrespecting Rog isn't even a problem. It's sport. That's the nature of the beast. Fans do fan things & vice versa. I don't care whether someone prefers Ayuso over Roglič or rates him higher. Knock yourselves out.

But what does make me react in his case is the fact he has a pseudo respectable "I'm a data analyst for Lanterne Rouge" job description which grants him a platform above all the thousands upon thousands of online cycling followers... when in effect he's not much different from the rest of us.

Basically, seeing people treat the power data published by these cycling influencers as a 'gospel' of sorts gets old real fast.
 
I don’t get your point
 
Now that we are getting closer to the race, the bookies are starting to post odds beyond the outright win. I thought the odds for a top 10 finish were interesting. I don't know why they don't have Roglic or Vingo in the list.

It's not really about can they be top 10, but will they be. For example, it has Remco at 5/6. I guess that implies that the bookies think there is ~ 46% chance he either crashes out, or decides to ship time so he can go for stage wins.

It's kind of interesting to think about team dynamics with this kind of bet. Similarly, another interesting bet to me ... according to the bookies, Bernal only has a 44% chance of being top 10. Does that mean they think he is going to have to work for Rodriguez at some point and blows up even though he has been named as a co-leader?

top10.png

https://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/top-10-finish
https://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/top-10-finish
 
Now that we are getting closer to the race, the bookies are starting to post odds beyond the outright win. I thought the odds for a top 10 finish were interesting. I don't know why they don't have Roglic or Vingo in the list.

It's not really about can they be top 10, but will they be. For example, it has Remco at 5/6. I guess that implies that the bookies think there is ~ 46% chance he either crashes out, or decides to ship time so he can go for stage wins.

It's kind of interesting to think about team dynamics with this kind of bet. Similarly, another interesting bet to me ... according to the bookies, Bernal only has a 44% chance of being top 10. Does that mean they think he is going to have to work for Rodriguez at some point and blows up even though he has been named as a co-leader?

top10.png

https://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/top-10-finish
https://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/top-10-finish
46% chance of top 10 for Remco isn’t too far off what I’d put him at next to these other 10 or so guys.
 

The disrespect to Rogla blows me away every time.

I totally get Pog as favorite. He is favorite. I even totally get conditionally placing Vingegaard as second favorite if you assume he's in good shape & Visma are 'sandbagging' a bit (I really don't think so but that's just my opinion, i.e. for example Kuss wasn't 'okay' & yet he was in the startlist as well until this morning... ergo Visma clearly aren't all omnipotent & in control of everything going on with their rider form).

But, Yates & Rodriguez better than Rog? No way.

With two ITT's, I don't think so. Only if something horrible happens to Roglič which knocks him out of the game because all things being equal he's beating those two riders in this TdF, as he's always done when fit.
 
The disrespect to Rogla blows me away every time.

I totally get Pog as favorite. He is favorite. I even totally get conditionally placing Vingegaard as second favorite if you assume he's in good shape & Visma are 'sandbagging' a bit (I really don't think so but that's just my opinion, i.e. for example Kuss wasn't 'okay' & yet he was in the startlist as well until this morning... ergo Visma clearly aren't all omnipotent & in control of everything going on with their rider form).

But, Yates & Rodriguez better than Rog? No way.

With two ITT's, I don't think so. Only if something horrible happens to Roglič which knocks him out of the game because all things being equal he's beating those two riders in this TdF, as he's always done when fit.

Yup, I think 3 guys are able to win the Tour this year and Rogla is among them.
 
Vingo, Rogla and co will need to dig really deep to survive the first and middle part of the race without big losses. I think that Pogacar will arrive at the Tour in superb form, hitting absolute peak. His form in the 3rd week is another story though. Declining from his peak may not matter if he's able to build a decent gap and Vingo doesn't suddely hit lifetime form.
 
They all need to be in good form and try to attack Pogacar. A bit like the Tour of 2021

I'm seeing all the predictions for the Tour & I think the truth is somewhere in the middle, i.e. Pog won't be as dominant as some people imagine whilst his rivals won't be dropped as easily as people imagine either.

I think it'll be closer in GC for the first two weeks than last year. The route & lack of summit finish until stage 14 lends to this. So I think that'll automatically make the race more suspenseful because quite a few teams will be in the fight.

I just can't imagine Pog dropping everyone in the first 4 stages. The Galibier's profile is just not hard enough (& yeah a top form Evenepoel should have no trouble holding wheels on Tuesday).
 
I just can't imagine Pog dropping everyone in the first 4 stages. The Galibier's profile is just not hard enough (& yeah a top form Evenepoel should have no trouble holding wheels on Tuesday).

Not on every stage and maybe not everyone. If he's in so red hot form now then I definitely see him gapping at least some of his biggest rivals on Galibier - UAE super-doms will make sure to set ridiculous tempo from its start (so Pog doesn't have to stay in the wind for too long on this moderately steep climb) and Pog's acceleration in the final 2-3 km should be deadly enough after 5 km of "sprint" by Yates/Almeida/Ayuso.
 
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