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Who will win the Giro 100?

Who will win the Giro?

  • Nairo Quintana

    Votes: 60 52.2%
  • Vincenzo Nibali

    Votes: 17 14.8%
  • Steven Kruijswijk

    Votes: 8 7.0%
  • Geraint Thomas

    Votes: 3 2.6%
  • Tom Dumoulin

    Votes: 2 1.7%
  • Thibaut Pinot

    Votes: 10 8.7%
  • Mikel Landa

    Votes: 4 3.5%
  • Adam Yates

    Votes: 5 4.3%
  • Ilnur Zakarin

    Votes: 1 0.9%
  • Other

    Votes: 5 4.3%

  • Total voters
    115
  • Poll closed .
Quintana is the overwhelming favorite, but he could be vulnerable on stages 4, 9, and 10 depending on how quickly he gains form. If it takes him until the last week to be at his best and one of the other favorites kills it on these 3 stages, it could be enough to beat him. I don't think it's going to happen though.
 
Re:

Scarponi said:
Have any of these riders ever been close to Quintana?
Yates was pretty close in the Tour last year (and yet surprisingly he has very little backing in the poll - needs to get himself a few more fanboys!) I guess that was the worst we've seen Quintana at a GT he is peaking for since he burst onto the scene though, so difficult to read too much into it.
 
I'd say Pinot for these reasons:

Quintana has the Tour in his mind and probably isn't at 100%.
Nibali could win due to his curse only if in the final stages will have one or two in front of him but i think this year will be more because he is declining.
Kruijswijk crashed in Yorkshire and dind't show anything that suggest he'll have the form of his life like last year.
Thomas based on the form showed could be up for the win but he'll crack somewhere.
Doumulin will have a bad day like in the Vuelta two years ago and will be sufficient to take him out the podium.
Zakarain will crash out somewhere.
Landa will be superdom for Thomas and if he'll be stronger in Sky are going to realize that too late.
 
I voted for Quintana but I don't think he is the outstanding favorite. The fact that he goes for the double gives me hope that he won't have absolute top shape for 3 weeks. That would give Nibali, Pinot, SK, Landa,... a chance. I actually really hope that Quintana won't already lead by two minutes after Blockhaus because otherwise this giro could be extremely exciting. There are guys like Dumoulin and Thomas who could do extremely well in the first two weeks but are big uncertainty factors in the super hard 3rd week where they could completely crack any time. Meanwhile nobody else has really looked so impressive this season that one could expect him to completely dominate. So if Quintana isn't absolutely flying I expect a great race.
 
Re:

Nirvana said:
I'd say Pinot for these reasons:

Quintana has the Tour in his mind and probably isn't at 100%.
Nibali could win due to his curse only if in the final stages will have one or two in front of him but i think this year will be more because he is declining.
Kruijswijk crashed in Yorkshire and dind't show anything that suggest he'll have the form of his life like last year.
Thomas based on the form showed could be up for the win but he'll crack somewhere.
Doumulin will have a bad day like in the Vuelta two years ago and will be sufficient to take him out the podium.
Zakarain will crash out somewhere.
Landa will be superdom for Thomas and if he'll be stronger in Sky are going to realize that too late.
How far below 100% do you think Quintana will have to be to be beaten by Pinot or Thomas? Genuine question, btw. Do you think the form he showed in 2016 TdF would be bad enough to let someone else win? Or would he have to be as bad as 2015 Vuelta?