Who will win the Green Jersey?

[auscyclefan94]

It will be very intersting to see who will win the green jersey this year. No Mcewan or Boonen(most likely) could make it very intersting. Stegmans will lead Katusha this year but isn't fast enough to go with Haussler or Cavendish. Cavendish will go in the favourite but can he continue his early season from and Columbia might have some aspirations for the overall. Friere looks very good for me because he doesn't need a lead out train for him to win because he won't have the support with rabobank's overall aspirations. Bennati will be over run with Liquigas' overall chances with Kreuziger. Haussler and Hushovd will struggle with the team most likely being devoted to Sastre.Will they even get a spot on the team? Will Quickstep go with stage wins with Chavanel and Devolder or go with Australian sprinter Allan Davis? Who else will be able to contend for green this july? Should be interesting! Please express your thoughts in the blog!

 

[anubisza]

Got to be Cavendish. He's the most complete sprinter, and will be able to get over the mountains.

On a personal note, I'm disappointed Barloworld didn't get an invite this year, would have loved to see Robbie Hunter give it a crack.

 

[Jasper]

I think it'll be a battle between Cavendish and Freire. Cav is obviously the fastest of the two, and he'll most likely have a few men to lead him out as well. But the question is if he will also battle for the intermediate points, something Freire usually does. And Freire is much more of a complete rider, so he might be able to catch some points in the harder stages, where Cav is already way behind.

As far as the others go, I think Bennati might have a good shot as well if he can reach his best form. But after a disastrous season so far, with very few racing kilometres, he might fall a bit short. Hushovd is getting too old and too slow to fight for the green, but there are a few uphill sprint finishes that should suit him well. I assume he and Haussler will rotate among eachother, meaning one day Haussler will lead out for Hushovd, and the other day Hushovd will lead out for Haussler. But in doing that, battling for the green jersey is almost impossible, for you can't afford to not participate in any bunch sprint. Boonen could have a say in the debates as well, but seeing how it's becoming harder and harder for him to win bunch sprints, I doubt he'll be able to beat Cavendish or Freire. That is, if he's allowed to start. I'm a bit in the dark about Tyler Farrar. He's already ridden a tiring Giro, and the Tour is even more hectic. He might go for a stage win, but green, I don't think so.

 

[Animal]

Cav has stated that he's not going for it. He's saving his gas for stage wins.

That makes sense to me.

At this stge of his career, he's got all the explosiveness needed to win sprints consistently. No need to jeopardize a stage win by nickel-and-diming points from intermediate sprints to accumulate, and maintain a points lead with top 5 placings.

He's going for glory.

If/when he goes off the boil as far as that killer speed is concerned, he will probably have built up that "regularity" that Zabel had to be consistently fast enough to collect points.

 

[Jasper]

Hmm, I remember reading not so long ago that he's definitely planning on getting to Paris this year, and preferably with the green jersey around his shoulders.

 

[Belokki]

Got to be Cavendish. He's the most complete sprinter, and will be able to get over the mountains.

On a personal note, I'm disappointed Barloworld didn't get an invite this year, would have loved to see Robbie Hunter give it a crack.

WHAAT??? He's only good in the last 200 meters of a flat stage! The real complete sprinter was Bettini and is Bonnen Hushovd, good in cobbles, sprints, TT's! Cav is a joke of a complete rider!

Cav chickenned out of all the GT so far, so much for the most complete rider

 

[Animal]

What crap!

He's only what, 23?!

 

[Jasper]

Yeah, Freire is the most complete sprinter, but what Cavendish showed 2 days ago in Switzerland (difficult finale, slightly uphill sprint), says a lot. He certainly won't be dropped anymore at the slightest sign of uphill roads. And he doesn't need a full flat finish line anymore as well.

 

[Anonymous]

WHAAT??? He's only good in the last 200 meters of a flat stage! The real complete sprinter was Bettini and is Bonnen Hushovd, good in cobbles, sprints, TT's! Cav is a joke of a complete rider!

Cav chickenned out of all the GT so far, so much for the most complete rider

You really are a bit more than your garden variety moron, aren't you? Um, winning MSR suggests that he is a bit more than good in the last 200 meters of a flat stage.

Cav may win it, but he will get competition for the intermediate sprints. Sprinters are a competitive bunch, and I wouldn't doubt that on the road, he may make decisions about the jersey he is not necessarily planning at this point.

 

[Missing Saddle Man]

Don't overlook the obvious, Kenny van Hummel!

 

[Outsprinted]

Daniele Bennati is my pick, he can climb better than all the others but Freire, and he will be super motivated after missing the giro.

 

[Jasper]

Don't overlook the obvious, Kenny van Hummel!

He better not elbow anyone this time though

 

[Cartesian Centaur]

Cav chickenned out of all the GT so far, so much for the most complete rider

Apart from finishing the Giro last year?

I don't think anyone outside of Team Columbia really knows what Cav's objectives this year are - after all he wasn't trying to win MSR . I suspect he'll be having a crack at the green though - whether he gets it, who knows. I think Freire has a good shot, and I'm curious to see what Haussler might do (which presumably will also be dependent on what Hushovd does).

 

[Bala Verde]

Depends a little on the profiles and last k's of the 'flat stages'. Cavendish is definitely the man to beat when it comes to flat final 1k finishes, while Freire (GY 2008) has the edge going uphill and after more taxing, ondulating stages. Haussler is one to look out for as well, as he almost pipped Cav in MSR on the line. Hushovd is always a power house, and he has brought the green jersey home in 2005 (without a win!). Then there is Farar who beat Cavendish as well. It could be one of the most exciting competition in this year's TdF.

Mind you if you come in second every time, and/or you are competitive in tougher stages or intermediates, you can take the GY home without a win at all. Some sprinters only want to spend energy on a 'sure' win, and come in 9th or 12th when they see no possibility to claim victory. The most constant sprinter will get the GY contrary to the one with the most wins. Hushovd and Freire I think are the ones that never slam the brakes.

 

[Jasper]

Didn't Hushovd win the prologue in 2005?

 

[Bala Verde]

Didn't Hushovd win the prologue in 2005?

just checked, but it was David Z in 2005. He won the 7k prologue in 2006 strassbourg

 

[Jasper]

Yeah, it was in 2006 apparentely, my bad

 

[WildspokeJoe]

C'mon the answer is SO obvious.

Boonen!

Remember there's a white line at the of the race!

(too easy but I couldn't resist)

 

[md2020]

I'd like to see Garmin try to win it with Farrar. Unfortunately, they'll probably spend too much energy supporting VdV for GC and trying to get into breakaways for exposure. Plus, there's also the problem in that they can't seem to figure out how to do a lead-out like Columbia can.

 

[BroDeal]

No Boonen. No Petacchi. Cav walks away with it.

 

[pmcg76]

WHAAT??? He's only good in the last 200 meters of a flat stage! The real complete sprinter was Bettini and is Bonnen Hushovd, good in cobbles, sprints, TT's! Cav is a joke of a complete rider!

Cav chickenned out of all the GT so far, so much for the most complete rider

What favourite rider of Belokki also chickened out of his first few GTs without winning a tenth of what Cavendish has won? give us an L, give us an A, give us an N, get the picture.

I think Cavendish will win almost all the stages he goes for and will have most stage wins but I think other guys will be up there on more stages, Cav usually doesnt waste energy or his team if he dosent think he can win. Freire is a good call, Boonen also if he is there, Hushovd and Haussler will negate each other and Bennati has not been in good enough form this season with problems etc. I think Farrar could be a darkhorse purely on consistency.

 

[Belokki]

What favourite rider of Belokki also chickened out of his first few GTs without winning a tenth of what Cavendish has won?

He won the Tour 7 times, Cav will never come even close to that palmares in prestige!

 

[Belokki]

What favourite rider of Belokki also chickened out of his first few GTs without winning a tenth of what Cavendish has won? give us an L, give us an A, give us an N, get the picture.

And your piont is??

Let me finish it C, E and Armstrong!! Like it or not Lance is my favorite rider, along with Boonen and Boasson Hagen!

 

[Jasper]

If Cavendish keeps on riding and winning the way he does, his palmares will be more than comparable to Armstrongs when he reaches 38. Although you never really can compare a sprinter to a GC rider to begin with. Cavendish has what it takes to go for a few green jerseys, a few dozen of stage wins in nearly every tour grand or small, a few classics while he's at it, and maybe even a world title. I mean, Cipollini or Zabel never won the Tour, but you can hardly say their palmares isn't as prestigious as Armstrongs

 

[elapid]

He won the Tour 7 times, Cav will never come even close to that palmares in prestige!

Different ball game. Cav is not a GT contender and winning the TdF is not on the radar. From a sprinter's perspective, particularly for someone so young, he has a palmares that approaches the best GT contenders. How many TdF and Giro stages does he now have? How many PT wins? What about MSR? And he's what, 23 years old? Cav will not win a GT but his palmares will definitely be as prestigious as LA (again, from a sprinter's perspective).