Who will win the KOM at the Tour?

[craig1985]

As it says on the tin, who do you think win the polka dot jersey at the Tour? I want David Moncoutié to win, hey if Anthony Charteau can do, so can David.

 

[just some guy]

Be a GC type guy with the way its setup this year.

VDB2 for me as 2nd Choice.

1st still in Switzerland

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

it does favor a GC guy. But we'll see..

 

[boomcie]

I play Kern.

 

[Liquigas]

Cunego will win it.

 

[Midnightfright]

It does seem to favour GC guys more than normal so in that case Andy or AC. Thats too easy though so will go for Chavanel.

 

[Gloin22]

It's between Kern and Mouncotie. Maybe Uran if he went for it and not the GC.

 

[Midnightfright]

It's between Kern and Mouncotie. Maybe Uran if he went for it and not the GC.

I thought about Uran aswell but think he might be on wiggo duty, also SKY don't seem to be the best or most interested in getting into breaks which would be essential if He was to contend.

 

[Cimber]

wouldnt be surprised if Vino would go for it. He would love to be on the podium in Paris in his last Tour.

Another bet could be Gadret if he doesn have to work purely for Roche (or simple decides not to, hehe )

 

[Ferminal]

All 4 MTFs are hard stages, so I don't see breaks winning any of them. If this is the case, someone like Moncoutie would have to take maximum points for all prior climbs on 3 of the 4 big mountain days to have a chance of winning. It is basically between Andy and Alberto, and any break person who might be lucky enough to win an MTF.

 

[jens_attacks]

the french bjarne riis,christophe kern is the answer you're looking for.

 

[Ferminal]

Theoretically, if someone took all points on Agnello-Izoard-Galibier (Lautaret) they would win the KoM.

 

[Frosty]

GC guys stand a chance of winning but a lot will depend on how many times the break stays away on the MTFs. Points system is below (mountain with a MTF is doubled.

HC 1 2 3 4
1st 20 10 5 2 1
2nd 16 8 3 1
3rd 12 6 2
4th 8 4 1
5th 4 2
6th 2 1

from (http://inrng.com/2011/06/tour-de-france-points-kom-competition-newrules/)

Given the average size of a breakaway then GC guys may get very few points before the last mountain. Consider, stage 14.

http://www.letour.fr/2011/TDF/COURSE/us/1400/etape_par_etape.html

Someone from a breakaway, lets say Moncoutie, leads over every climb before the last one, getting himself 32 points. However, if the break is then caught and Contador wins with the other main contenders catching Moncoutie as well then the score stands at Contador 40, Moncoutie 32. Not great news from a KoM point of view for a days attacking. However, if Moncoutie stays away to take a famous victory then he takes 72 points from the stage with fourth place Contador taking just 16. I think someone from a break can win it, they've just got to make sure they get in one that stays away to a MTF and are then able to pick up some other points.

Not sure about Moncoutie, he has done well in the Vuelta but struggled in the Tour and Giro.

Would have thought that one of the RadioShackers could be a good value bet for this - they should have three to count for the team comp if the break does get caught and assuming they dont challenge for the highest spots in the overall then it might be worth having a punt at this too.

EDIT: Problem is that they probably wont be far behind, at least not on the first Pyrenean stage so wont be allowed much time advantage. Maybe later in the race they will have more of a chance unless someone decides to deliberately lose time on the stage to Luz Ardiden or something.

 

[roundabout]

If a GC contender wins 3 of the 4 HC finishes then he is almost certain of victory.

Maybe even 2 can be enough depending on how hotly the KOM is contested by the 'lesser' climbers and how hard stages 12 and 18 are raced.

Edit:

First eleven stages - peanuts on offer (23 points on stage 9 is the maximum) - 52 points

Stage 12 - 70 points (30 before the MTF)
Stage 13 - 23 points
Stage 14 - 72 points (32 before the MTF)
15-16 - 6 points
Stage 17 - 24 points
Stage 18 - 80 points (40 before the MTF)
Stage 19 - 70 points (30 before the MTF)

So that's 237 non MTF points to 160 on MTFs.

 

[Frosty]

If a GC contender wins 3 of the 4 HC finishes then he is almost certain of victory.

Maybe even 2 can be enough depending on how hotly the KOM is contested by the 'lesser' climbers and how hard stages 12 and 18 are raced.

Edit:

First eleven stages - peanuts on offer (23 points on stage 9 is the maximum) - 52 points

Stage 12 - 70 points (30 before the MTF)
Stage 13 - 23 points
Stage 14 - 72 points (32 before the MTF)
15-16 - 6 points
Stage 17 - 24 points
Stage 18 - 80 points (40 before the MTF)
Stage 19 - 70 points (30 before the MTF)

So that's 237 non MTF points to 160 on MTFs.

Yeah, given Conty might not be on top form after the Giro i am wondering if Andy Schleck at 15/2 could be a good value bet.

 

[will10]

John Gadret

 

[Ferminal]

First eleven stages - peanuts on offer (23 points on stage 9 is the maximum) - 52 points

Yeh, I have Moncoutie (my proxy for breakaway KoM man) not even bothering until Stage 12 which will be very important. Then maybe try on 13 or 14 but what they really need to do is get in the break and perform, back to back in the Alps. A very difficult task, Charteau will not be winning it this year.

Someone could get all those points on Stage 9, but it's a brutal day, and that effort might deplete them for future stages.

 

[Bye Bye Bicycle]

Moncoutié is going to pick one day for a stage win. I don't think he will be there for the polka dot jersey.

My pick is Vinokourov. He will soon realize that he has no chance for the GC and will concentrate then on the GPM points. Of course I'd prefer another winner; but Vino seems to be the most likely bet.

 

[Frosty]

Yeh, I have Moncoutie (my proxy for breakaway KoM man) not even bothering until Stage 12 which will be very important. Then maybe try on 13 or 14 but what they really need to do is get in the break and perform, back to back in the Alps. A very difficult task, Charteau will not be winning it this year.

Someone could get all those points on Stage 9, but it's a brutal day, and that effort might deplete them for future stages.

The stages around stage 9 offer a good opportunity for someone going just for KoM to slip off the back on the later climbs with a group therefore taking it easy in the stages before the Pyrenees and also losing some time meaning the peloton allows them to get further ahead if they are in a mountain break.

Then stage 12=break
13 ride in with the autobus
14 try and get in the early break, take early points but dont push it too hard later on unless it looks like the break will win.

Then take it really easy until stage 18 where you get in the break again. Stage 19 tired from the previous day but try and give it everything to get some points at the top of the Galibier, little chance of getting any on the alpe. Of course it depends who else is scoring well, what the race situation is like etc but if you win the stage on either 12 or 18 then that should stand you in good stead for the overall KoM.

 

[Buffalo Soldier]

It would be great to see some 2nd tier GC riders fighting for it.
Genre Cunego, Kreuziger, Brajkovic, Vino,...

 

[Midnightfright]

It would be great to see some 2nd tier GC riders fighting for it.
Genre Cunego, Kreuziger, Brajkovic, Vino,...

I agree but I worry they will leave it too late fighting for a top 10 in the GC

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

I bet poels will try for this.
and fail.

 

[Midnightfright]

I bet poels will try for this.
and fail.

If he's lucky he will do such a bad job trying for it that no one will notice he was trying at all.

 

[Eyeballs Out]

Kiryienka has a good chance - good in breakaways and can mix it on certain MTFs with the GC boys if he has a couple of days to soft-peddle beforehand

 

[greenedge]

Di Gregorio and Moncoutie are my favourites. They are both good climbers and French. It shall be tightly fought out as well with some GC riders, Charteau and Uran also competing.