Who will win the next non-pog-winning tour?

[BahamontesPhantom]

Who will win the next tour that Poggles doesn’t win?

 

[Heston]

Seixas or Del Toro are the only real answers here. They are still improving year by year. Jonas is still the 2nd best, but he will be retired before Pogacar is.

 

[proffate]

Seixas or Del Toro are the only real answers here. They are still improving year by year. Jonas is still the 2nd best, but he will be retired before Pogacar is.

Jonas will come out of retirement for it

 

[chiocciolis_calves]

Seixas or Del Toro are the only real answers here. They are still improving year by year. Jonas is still the 2nd best, but he will be retired before Pogacar is.

I want to see how Del Toro does in a relatively long, flat TT, first. You can exclude Remco from consideration, but he was much stronger this third week in the high mountains than either of them, and we already know he is a couple notches above either of them against the clock. It's important to remember that Del Toro would've finished lower, not higher on GC if Tadej had been absent.

 

[chiocciolis_calves]

Jonas will come out of retirement for it

I sincerely hope Jonas and Visma change their goals and focus on a Giro-Vuelta double next season.

 

[AriaBrooks]

Who will win the next tour that Poggles doesn’t win?

Seixas or Del Toro are the only real answers here. They are still improving year by year. Jonas is still the 2nd best, but he will be retired before Pogacar is.

Jonas will come out of retirement for it

I want to see how Del Toro does in a relatively long, flat TT, first. You can exclude Remco from consideration, but he was much stronger this third week in the high mountains than either of them, and we already know he is a couple notches above either of them against the clock. It's important to remember that Del Toro would've finished lower, not higher on GC if Tadej had been absent.

I sincerely hope Jonas and Visma change their goals and focus on a Giro-Vuelta double next season.

Hard to tell. Pogacar is looking as invincible as ever. Maybe he will stop doing the Tour earlier than we think (i.e. he will be allowed one year without it). Utforska moderna spelplatser https://casinonutanbankid.com/ utan BankID med hög säkerhet. Maybe some racing accident (crash, illness) will let another guy win in the next 2-3 years. In the spring I would probably say Seixas or Vingegaard, now I'm not sure.

Right now I'd still lean towards Remco if we're talking about the first Tour that Pogacar doesn't win. He already has the TT advantage over almost everyone, and if he keeps improving in the high mountains as he has over the last couple of seasons, he'll always be in the conversation. Del Toro has enormous potential, but there are still too many unknowns over three weeks, especially on flatter time trials and when he has to lead a team without Pogacar beside him. Ayuso is another interesting option, although consistency has been his biggest issue. It may also depend on why Pogacar doesn't win. If it's because he skips the Tour, the list of contenders looks very different than if he's there but simply gets beaten on merit.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Hard to tell. Pogacar is looking as invincible as ever. Maybe he will stop doing the Tour earlier than we think (i.e. he will be allowed one year without it). Maybe some racing accident (crash, illness) will let another guy win in the next 2-3 years. In the spring I would probably say Seixas or Vingegaard, now I'm not sure.

 

[AlfaLum]

Personally despite all youngsters getting through I still believe that peak age is still between 26-28 for most people. The body has matured as far as possible, it has a lot of experience from resisting similar efforts and at that age I think riders are also developed much further mentally.

With that being said I would say the following:

Vingegaard:
- Clearly the closest in level still to Pogacar.
- Might win it next year or the year after if Pogacar has bad luck
- Given Pogacars track record with bad luck this seems unlikely

Evenepoel:
- Second closest to Pogacar in level
- Timing his top form seems the most fragile, for me he still seems to be that guy that is most likely to get in wrong in editions to come
- Agewise his peak seems to be too close to Pogacar, so he also needs Tadej to have bad luck.

Ayuso/Pidcock:
- Superb riders but for now there are Younger Guys coming through that are already better.
- Also with both of them I am just not seeing enough improvement to see them becoming Tour winners.

Del Toro:
- Agewise the gap to Pogacar is perfect to become his successor in 3-4 years.
- He still seems to be developing quite a bit year over year
- UAE has done the needed development successfully before by slowly expanding the zones to create a complete monster
- If his development continues he can already hit Vingegaard/Evenepoel level next season. But you never know when development hits the ceiling.
- For now I think he is slightly ahead of Seixas

Seixas:
- Agewise the gap to Pogacar should be a bit too big to be perfect
- Seixas is already at a crazy level at the age of 19 so might reach his peak earlier, or might not even need to have reached his peak in order to win the Tour in 4-5 years.
- In the spring hé seemed to have that special factor needed to become the real champion level
- Seems a bit below Del Toro at the moment, but I think he is slightly more talented in pacing himself
- Might make up ground to del Toro due to being much Younger.

For now i am going to say it will be Seixas in 2030 or 2031 who will break the Pogacar dominance. I think he still has a lot of room for improvement left in multiple areas as he continues to mature. I also think that already in 2028 Del Toro and Seixas will have improved so much that they will beat Vingegaard current level.

 

[Rackham]

I bet it's someone we haven't seen yet. A new species. Pog is only 27, aka an age where L.A. was winning his first. So there's a very high likelihood you're going to get Pog for another five TdF's.

Good luck predicting who'll be at what level by then. The only known quantity here is Pog has a monster margin over everyone. It means he can start to slowly decline when he hits 30 and still be a level above the rest.

Can't wait for his 9th TdF win which will be with a winning margin of 3 minutes and everyone will be saying "this is the end!".

 

[AlfaLum]

I

I bet it's someone we haven't seen yet. A new species. Pog is only 27, aka an age where L.A. was winning his first. So there's a very high likelihood you're going to get Pog for another five TdF's.

Good luck predicting who'll be at what level by then. The only known quantity here is Pog has a monster margin over everyone. It means he can start to slowly decline when he hits 30 and still be a level above the rest.

Can't wait for his 9th TdF win which will be with a winning margin of 3 minutes and everyone will be saying "this is the end!".

I agree for now, but then again every dominant era came to an end at some point. And most of them Rather abruptly. Some ended with a nasty crash, some because the dominant factor got exposed cheating others because the chasers finally caught up.

And this one might even end because the dominant factor is done with being the dominant factor. It could happen after 2030 for example.

This topic is meant to discuss who is most likely to step up when the dominant era ends, and its hard to make predictions on someone we havent seen yet.

For now I have seen two riders that I think could get relatively close to Pogacars level in 3-4 years. Of course it is a gamble if they will make it.

The third/fourth might be guys like Finn and Noval for example but due to the races they have done so far I think it is too big a gamble to include them in the discussion.

 

[Rackham]

I

I agree for now, but then again every dominant era came to an end at some point. And most of them Rather abruptly. Some ended with a nasty crash, some because the dominant factor got exposed cheating others because the chasers finally caught up.

And this one might even end because the dominant factor is done with being the dominant factor. It could happen after 2030 for example.

This topic is meant to discuss who is most likely to step up when the dominant era ends, and its hard to make predictions on someone we havent seen yet.

For now I have seen two riders that I think could get relatively close to Pogacars level in 3-4 years. Of course it is a gamble if they will make it.

The third/fourth might be guys like Finn and Noval for example but due to the races they have done so far I think it is too big a gamble to include them in the discussion.

You're more likely to see something similar to Nadal's Roland Garros era where he missed one or two due to injury or a shock defeat. Pog has already had two of those and it's Vingegaard who scooped a couple up.

If it happens again over the next two three years, then the candidates to nab a TdF will be Vingegaard (again, because he's not going to suddenly become worse IMO) and Evenepoel (based on this TdF and contingent on him coming back with the same form next year and not yo-yoing between good GT and busted GT).

Del Toro, Seixas and the rest are just way too far behind. 10 minutes + over three weeks enters into 'meh' territory where Pog on one leg would still win.

 

[Valv.Piti]

If Pog went all out, Remco would comfortably be +10 and Seixas and Toro +20. Dont even get me started on the rest..

But to answer the question: Paul Seixas. He has the mentality and the talent. He has shown a very high top level in the spring and he has shown that he is prepared to sit on a mountain for multiple months in a row. But Pog from 2024-2026 has shown there are levels to this, and he can decline a good amount and STILL win. But I think he will get bored, crashes, gets sick etc. before the loses a TdF on the road.

 

[AlfaLum]

You're more likely to see something similar to Nadal's Roland Garros era where he missed one or two due to injury or a shock defeat. Pog has already had two of those and it's Vingegaard who scooped a couple up.

If it happens again over the next two three years, then the candidates to nab a TdF will be Vingegaard (again, because he's not going to suddenly become worse IMO) and Evenepoel (based on this TdF and contingent on him coming back with the same form next year and not yo-yoing between good GT and busted GT).

Del Toro, Seixas and the rest are just way too far behind. 10 minutes + over three weeks enters into 'meh' territory where Pog on one leg would still win.

Yes, but now you are disregarding potential development entirely. And when you are talking about a 22 year old and 19 year old that does not make much sense to me.

Del Toro is not that far of Evenepoels level. Yes he wasnt as good this Tour, but he won the UAE Tour, Tirreno and Auvergne this year and he probably has not peaked as specifically towards July as Evenepoel has.

On the other hand I think Seixas tried to peak to July but has not found the ideal recipe yet cause I think his spring peak was better.

So even if Pogacar has a fluke next season i am not convinced that Evenepoel has better chances than Del Toro and Seixas.

 

[Rackham]

Yes, but now you are disregarding potential development entirely. And when you are talking about a 22 year old and 19 year old that does not make much sense to me.

Del Toro is not that far of Evenepoels level. Yes he wasnt as good this Tour, but he won the UAE Tour, Tirreno and Auvergne this year and he probably has not peaked as specifically towards July as Evenepoel has.

On the other hand I think Seixas tried to peak to July but has not found the ideal recipe yet cause I think his spring peak was better.

So even if Pogacar has a fluke next season i am not convinced that Evenepoel has better chances than Del Toro and Seixas.

Seixas is 20 in September and has landed in a pro-cycling scene tailored towards putting young riders through professional level prep much, much sooner than prior generations. Cycling is essentially going through its own equivalent of football's late 90's when everyone and their dog was blown away by Il Fenomeno Ronaldo because he burst onto the scene at 17 or something - until the Owens, Rooneys, C Ronaldos, Messis etc. became a teenage routine.

In that respect keep an eye on Spain's Benjamin Noval who's going to Ineos next year. 17 years old and apparently the next big thing. Keep 'em coming, there's plenty more youngsters to be thrown into the grinder.

 

[Psycat]

Im also thinking along the lines of him getting a injury that slows him down(either permanently or just for abit) in which case today Vinge would likely still be the favorite but Evenepoel seemed very strong this Tour so it's between those two.

Anything beyond a couple of years from now on is too much guesswork to even make an educated guess in my opinion.

 

[Rule #9 apostle]

El toro loco. I can imagine dreadful scenarios if he is suddenly a couple of minutes ahead after an early split or break...

 

[Brullnux]

It is entirely up to Pogacar and when he decides to not race the Tour. If next year, then Vingegaard is favourite. If 2 years, hard to say – depends on Seixas' progression and Evenepoel's consistency. If 3 years+, then total guesswork.

 

[AlfaLum]

Seixas is 20 in September and has landed in a pro-cycling scene tailored towards putting young riders through professional level prep much, much sooner than prior generations. Cycling is essentially going through its own equivalent of football's late 90's when everyone and their dog was blown away by Il Fenomeno Ronaldo because he burst onto the scene at 17 or something - until the Owens, Rooneys, C Ronaldos, Messis etc. became a teenage routine.

In that respect keep an eye on Spain's Benjamin Noval who's going to Ineos next year. 17 years old and apparently the next big thing. Keep 'em coming, there's plenty more youngsters to be thrown into the grinder.

Even Messi and Ronaldo peaked later when they reached physical maturity. They come into the sport much better prepped than before i agree.

But that does not take away that in general the body is still maturing at the ages of Del Toro and Seixas. As the seasons progress they should be able to build out their FTP further paying less for the biggest efforts. They will also grow more used to three weeks of effort, they will grow in experience etc.

For Seixas this was only his first race of three weeks. Before this season Avenir was probably his longest stage race. I dont believe for a second that he has already reached his full potential.

Neither do i believe it of Del Toro, of whom I also read last season that he had already reached his ceiling, but who took a major step forward this year regardless.

 

[Tonton]

It's entirely up to Pogacar. I can see him at (or close to) this level for 5 or 6. Scary...

Baring an injury (i.e. Badger '80), Jonas will keep trying, but I don't see him slay the dragon in the years to come, and he's not getting younger. Remco may be past his prime by the time Teddy retires. It's Torito or Sexy imo.

The route will affect this too. take Pogacar and Jonas out, more ITT will be great for Remco, Seixas to an extend. There are too many unknowns to answer the question. But it will be fun to watch.

 

[Rackham]

Even Messi and Ronaldo peaked later when they reached physical maturity. They come into the sport much better prepped than before i agree.

I was being generous with those examples by the way because they're the super successful ones. The downside is the surplus of youth getting fast tracked to the top also leads to Theo Walcott, Sinama Pongolle, Anelka or (a really extreme example) the new Pelé Freddy Adu.

That's why I'm making zero predications about Seixas. None. Other than his TdF tells us little about what we can expect next year because the form curve from spring to July was stagnant (& his teammates seemed to finish better than he did when they set up an attack and he couldn't execute it).

 

[carolina]

João Almeida

 

[veganrob]

Yes, but now you are disregarding potential development entirely. And when you are talking about a 22 year old and 19 year old that does not make much sense to me.

Del Toro is not that far of Evenepoels level. Yes he wasnt as good this Tour, but he won the UAE Tour, Tirreno and Auvergne this year and he probably has not peaked as specifically towards July as Evenepoel has.

On the other hand I think Seixas tried to peak to July but has not found the ideal recipe yet cause I think his spring peak was better.

So even if Pogacar has a fluke next season i am not convinced that Evenepoel has better chances than Del Toro and Seixas.

Seixas crashed out of Dauphine. That compromised his training. TdF was also not in the plans till late.

 

[Schachus]

If you consider it likely the next non-Pog Winner will be in the next two years, I'd say Vingegaard is still the best vote. If you think it will take longer, I'd say chances are good for Seixas and otherwise quite high the person is not even on this poll. Why do I think this? If its not Vingegaard it will be a first time tour winner.

And if I just look at the last tour winners and whether anyone might have thought of them 3 years prior to their first tour win as a potential tour winner in the future, or give them as an answer option to "who will win the tour in three years". I think most wouldn't have been voted:

Pog: no - was very young and still unknown in 2017 (his thread here started in 2018)
Vingo: no - was young and unknown in 2019 (his thread here started in 2021)
Bernal: maybe - was very young in 2016, but a little bit known (had a thread here, did good in Avenir 2016), but dont think he was the hottest of all names in 2016
Thomas: maybe - was of course very much known in 2015, but not sure many expected he would still win a tour by that point
Froome: no - was unknown in 2010
Nibali: yes. I think some people would have put him on such a poll if it happened in 2011 for tour 2014
Wiggins: Maybe. Came onto GC rider scene with the tour 2009, exactly 3 years before winning his first (and only) tour
Evans: yes. Would have been a tour win candidate from previous years
Schleck (if you count 2010 as his): yes - Breakthrough Giro was exactly 3 years prior in 2007, after that, he would have been named
Contador: no - unknown in 2004
Sastre: Maybe - could know him in 2005, but not really seeming like a future winner imo
Perreiro: no
Armstrong: no - not a GC rider in 1996
Pantani: probably yes, after the Alpe stage in 1995
Ulrich: no - unknown in 1994

that makes 7 no, 4 maybe and 4 yes out of the last 15, if I didnt forget any.
so like half of them were unknown 3 years prior to their first tour win and out of the other half many would only maybe have been considered as candidates for the tour win 3 years later. So It think if Pog takes the next 2, the next winner after hi could well be someone still unknown today.

 

[AlfaLum]

I was being generous with those examples by the way because they're the super successful ones. The downside is the surplus of youth getting fast tracked to the top also leads to Theo Walcott, Sinama Pongolle, Anelka or (a really extreme example) the new Pelé Freddy Adu.

That's why I'm making zero predications about Seixas. None. Other than his TdF tells us little about what we can expect next year because the form curve from spring to July was stagnant (& his teammates seemed to finish better than he did when they set up an attack and he couldn't execute it).

Seixas at 19 year old this season is already surely along the best 10 riders in the world. The boys you are talking about now (especially a guy like Freddy Adu) where never anywhere near that level in comparison.

Seixas is more like Lamine Yamal in that regard if you want to compare with football. Young Guy, already proven to be a top player. Just not sure whether he will reach the level of the GOAT. Or a guy like Mbappe a few years ago.

For a 19 year old Seixas has already proven a lot. He won Fleche Wallone and The Basque Country. He podiumed Strade Bianche and Liege behind the best rider ever. And he Podiumed a very tough EC.

 

[Rackham]

Seixas at 19 year old this season is already surely along the best 10 riders in the world. The boys you are talking about now (especially a guy like Freddy Adu) where never anywhere near that level in comparison.

Seixas is more like Lamine Yamal in that regard if you want to compare with football. Young Guy, already proven to be a top player. Just not sure whether he will reach the level of the GOAT. Or a guy like Mbappe a few years ago.

For a 19 year old Seixas has already proven a lot. He won Fleche Wallone and The Basque Country. He podiumed Strade Bianche and Liege behind the best rider ever. And he Podiumed a very tough EC.

The conversation surrounding Seixas at the moment is interesting and the pressure is ironically being applied by those who're the most defensive and protective towards him - especially after his Tour. Bernard Thévenet was getting eviscerated on X this morning and called all the names under the sun because he reckoned Seixas had been slightly overhyped by everyone before the Tour and he's where he belongs. That's enough for the cultist Seixas defenders to abuse him and scream WHERE WAS THEVENET AT 19.

Okay. But let's call a spade a spade: as far as I can tell, everyone saying Seixas is "extraordinary" in this TdF is doing so under the barely concealed hopium it means he'll win it in a few years. That's the gist of it.

My view? Just let him race and see where he's at. I don't presume to know where he'll be in five years because I've seen riders come and go without fulfilling their early career promise, whilst others who were nowhere (like Vingegaard for example) suddenly become champions almost overnight.