Tour de France Who will win the Tour de France 2022?

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Who will win the Tour de France?


  • Total voters
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  • Poll closed .
If Fuglsang finally has the right combination of

-Correct Fish oil supplement
-Not wheelsucking opponents
-No recent Vaccination
-No Nibali in the race
-High Carb diet

He can win Le Tour
I believe he has, which is why I voted for him. As a classic specialist I also expect him to take 10 minutes on the other GC contenders on stage 5 to have a nice buffer going into the mountains.

Also no Alaphilippe to hold him back.
 
Well, from stage 10 last year, when Vingegaard got going, he beat Pogacar on GC, dropped him on the Mont Ventoux and beat him in the TT. And no, Pogacar didn't let him do that.

In the Dauphiné, Vingegaard looked like he was on a Sunday stroll on the Solaison where Roglic was towed to the line.

Vingegaard has a much, much better team than Pogacar.

It's not a non-contest.

I want Roglic to win but don't believe he can after seeing him being less imposing this year than usually.
The super rating of Vingegaard before this TdF has gotten slightly out of hand IMO.

I'll rewind for a second: he looked super comfortable in the last stage of the Dauphiné. That's it. He never ever came close to challenging Pogacar in the TdF last year & his early season form this year was also a bit sketchy (Tirreno & Itzulia were nothing to get excited about). No one truly believed Pogacar was in trouble on the Ventoux last year either so it's a sort of rewriting of history to now use that stage as proof of some sort of power dynamic in Vinge's favor.

I'd suggest people need to calm down but it's way too late now because the new popular prediction, i.e. "Vingegaard > Roglic", is plastered all over the media & social media. Even an ex pros like Nicolas Fritsch on French Eurosport is saying Vingegaard is going to win the TdF, no less. I mean for me this is all wild, crazy wishful thinking (he's not better than Pog & Rog in the ITT & he hasn't proven he can climb better either, whilst his punch is also not as good).

Maybe I'm way off here & people will be laughing at these sorts of posts in 3 weeks but it's still weird to me how the Vingegaard hype took off way beyond what seems reasonable to me.
 
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The super rating of Vingegaard before this TdF has gotten slightly out of hand IMO.

I'll rewind for a second: he looked super comfortable in the last stage of the Dauphiné. That's it. He never ever came close to challenging Pogacar in the TdF last year & his early season form this year was also a bit sketchy (Tirreno & Itzulia were nothing to get excited about). No one truly believed Pogacar was in trouble on the Ventoux last year either so it's a sort of rewriting of history to now use that stage as proof of some sort of power dynamic in Vinge's favor.

I'd suggest people need to calm down but it's way too late now because the new popular prediction, i.e. "Vingegaard > Roglic", is plastered all over the media & social media. Even an ex pros like Nicolas Fritsch on French Eurosport is saying Vingegaard is going to win the TdF, no less. I mean for me this is all wild, crazy wishful thinking (he's not better than Pog & Rog in the ITT & he hasn't proven he can climb better either, whilst his punch is also not as good).

Maybe I'm way off here & people will be laughing at these sorts of posts in 3 weeks but it's still weird to me how the Vingegaard hype took off way beyond what seems reasonable to me.
Eh? Pogacar was dropped on Mont Ventoux, fair and square. There's no way he let Vingegaard go willingly. Vingegaard also beat Pogacar on the final TT. I already wrote that before, though.
 
I only see 3 real contenders:

  • Poggy
  • Roglic
  • Vingegaard
Unless strange things happen, I don't see anyone else really standing a chance:

  • Vlasov: best of the rest, still haven't seen him top tier for 3 weeks. Even top tier he's likely to get dropped by the 3 big guns
  • Thomas: great form but the Thomas that won the tour is a long time ago
  • Lutsenko: he can do a bit of everything, but doesn't excel enough in climing or TT to actually be up there
  • Dani Martinez: likely to just go for stages
  • O'connor: top 4 last year, but was lucky to get a lot of time in a break
  • Fulsang: even in his top days he was no podium contender
No carapaz, no Bernal,

In terms of GC battle, it's going to be a battle of 3...
 
Eh? Pogacar was dropped on Mont Ventoux, fair and square. There's no way he let Vingegaard go willingly.
Really? He had a five minute cushion & a descent afterwards. It looked to me like a typical 'this isn't worth the effort' split second decision from the yellow jersey. Pog had already won the TdF before the final ITT as well, so the gap there is once again not something I'd hold onto as evidence of anything.

The TdF is all about managing strength & inflicting the killer blow when necessary. Pog did that in 2021, the rest is just extrapolation & wishful thinking.

At no point was he in serious trouble.
 
Really? He had a five minute cushion & a descent afterwards. It looked to me like a typical 'this isn't worth the effort' split second decision from the yellow jersey. Pog had already won the TdF before the final ITT as well, so the gap there is once again not something I'd hold onto as evidence of anything.

The TdF is all about managing strength & inflicting the killer blow when necessary. Pog did that in 2021, the rest is just extrapolation & wishful thinking.

At no point was he in serious trouble.
He wasn't in serious trouble considering there was less than two kilometres to the top and a descent afterwards and that his gap was already five minutes but there was no way he could follow Vingegaard there. You could see his grimaces just before he let go.

Pretending that he could just have clobbered Vingegaard at a canter that day is a twist of reality and can only make sense if you think Pogacar is an unbeatable demi-god and think that every time he shows weakness, it's just a ruse. Which is not how professional sport works.
 
Does my eyes deceive me or do I see Jakob Fuglsang and Geraint Thomas in the poll... two riders with absolutely zero chances of doing anything else than hoping a place just inside the top-10 if everything goes well? I could use some Enric Mas instead, 2nd last year in the Vuelta and looking as good as Roglic before the last week where he crashed. Has looked great so far this season, but for some reason has crashed in every major race he entered and thus havent gotten anything for it yet. Mas can definitely podium, and if hes lucky enough, win the race.

The Australians? Prolly hang for on for places between 5-12th.
 
I think Pogacar really didn't have a great day on the Ventoux and that's probably his one weakness: extreme heat. It's not his cryptonite, but he doesn't thrive in the heat. So yeah, that could become a problem.
Apart from that I think it was a "I don't need to be better anymore" after gaining 5 minutes on the others. UAE have given him a contract for ages. I think they are going to make sure he'll have at least one super week, probably the second one. He has never shown weakness when he needed to do well, on days that mattered to him all that ever gave him problems were tactical mistakes or the tactical situation.
 
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Does my eyes deceive me or do I see Jakob Fuglsang and Geraint Thomas in the poll... two riders with absolutely zero chances of doing anything else than hoping a place just inside the top-10 if everything goes well? I could use some Enric Mas instead, 2nd last year in the Vuelta and looking as good as Roglic before the last week where he crashed. Has looked great so far this season, but for some reason has crashed in every major race he entered and thus havent gotten anything for it yet. Mas can definitely podium, and if hes lucky enough, win the race.

The Australians? Prolly hang for on for places between 5-12th.

I don’t agree that Thomas has a zero chance as you put it or that necessarily Mas has a better shot of a podium than Thomas, given TTs/first week/team strength…suspect Mas will be slightly better in the high mountains but both are also crash prone so who knows who makes it there unscathed.
 
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There probably needs to be around 80% certainty a rider will win assuming no bad luck in order for the actual statistical probability to be over 50% given all the luck factors. So I still think Tadej will win, but Vlasov is my #2 and Vingegaard #3
 
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Does my eyes deceive me or do I see Jakob Fuglsang and Geraint Thomas in the poll... two riders with absolutely zero chances of doing anything else than hoping a place just inside the top-10 if everything goes well? I could use some Enric Mas instead, 2nd last year in the Vuelta and looking as good as Roglic before the last week where he crashed. Has looked great so far this season, but for some reason has crashed in every major race he entered and thus havent gotten anything for it yet. Mas can definitely podium, and if hes lucky enough, win the race.

The Australians? Prolly hang for on for places between 5-12th.
Hard to take anything from your post serious if you end up with saying that Mas can win the Tour.
 
Hard to take anything from your post serious if you end up with saying that Mas can win the Tour.
Mas is likely to be the 4th-6th best rider in the race. Then you account for crashes etc. - obviously he doesnt win the Tour straight up, but its absolutely ridiculous to say that Thomas has a better chance than Mas. His high mountain climbing simply isn't good enough and that matters a lot this Tour.

A very conservative timeloss for Thomas in the Alps are 6 minutes to the best rider.
 
Mas is likely to be the 4th-6th best rider in the race. Then you account for crashes etc. - obviously he doesnt win the Tour straight up, but its absolutely ridiculous to say that Thomas has a better chance than Mas. His high mountain climbing simply isn't good enough and that matters a lot this Tour.

A very conservative timeloss for Thomas in the Alps are 6 minutes to the best rider.
But Mas easily loses over 6 minutes in 60 km of TT, echelons and the cobble stage to Thomas.
 

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