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Will Evans, Basso, or Sastre be a factor?

Who will finish top 5?

  • Vino or Cunego will recover better better and beat all 3

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Will they be too tired from the Giro and go the way of Menchov last year?

We've seen Cadel and Carlos perform at a high level at the Vuelta after racing the Tour but of course that's not the same as going into a stacked Tour field after a particularly brutal Giro. Obviously, we haven't seen much from them since.

The climbs won't be as hard which would probably help Evans, but he seemed like he went especially deep in Italy. I'm tempted to say Sastre has the best chance to bounce back, as he's probably raced most of the GTs over the last several years, but for some reason I think his ceiling is lower. Basso certainly has the best team; both Sastre and Evans teams' are definitely lacking once the road goes uphill.

Can any of them finish top 5?
 
Jun 16, 2010
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menchov was pretty fried due to somewhat weak team support. too many falls...basso is a different sort of rider...when i voted, i voted that evans would be a factor...he will not be top 5...basso, however, will...
 
basso has a great team and is a great climber, and the third week is a whiles a way still so he will do well.
Evans has guts and did well on verbier last year, so might pull it off.

Sastre doesnt even want to be here and did poorly during the giro. Might go for a stage though.
 
The Hitch said:
Sastre doesnt even want to be here and did poorly during the giro. Might go for a stage though.

I think Sastre should just try and go for the climbers jersey. That's probably the easiest goal for him to manage. If he doesn't have the form for GC then it will be hard to be there at the end of the stages but he could probably still go in long breaks to get points and just tank in the last climb.
 
Jun 16, 2009
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Evans has said that he did the same amount of days of racing going into the tour last year but with a bigger break in between. He will be in contention.
 
Sep 16, 2009
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Evans won't be a factor. Sastre won't be a factor.

Basso could be a factor, but won't finish top five. Basso is the only one out of those three that will come top ten.
 
Jun 16, 2009
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It's hard to tell what will happen at the end of the three weeks, but I suspect all three will try to "make" something of the mountain stages. They may not succeed, but Evans and Basso will be at the pointy end of things in the Alps and if Sastre doesn't go for a stage win in the Pyrenees it's time for him to hang up his shoes.
 
Jun 16, 2009
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Cervelo77 said:
Where do I vote for a simpler poll?

Also, where is my Gesink beats all three option? I want that option.

How about the option of Gesink can't time trial and will fall off after the first corner of the tdf?
 
May 28, 2010
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La Vie Claire said:
Basso burnt all his matches at the Giro.

Yes it's true that Basso had to reach fairly deep to manage the effort it took to win the Giro, but this was not necessarily as damaging as it might seem. For one, remember that Liquigas used 2 "co-leaders" in the Giro (Basso and Nibali) and plan to do the same with Basso and Kreuziger at the tour. If Kreuziger (who admittedley is not as strong as Nibali) can attack off the front at strategic points and take long pulls in the mountains for Basso, that could be a big advantage.
 
I voted for Evans and Basso. Evans has been able to do a good Vuelta after a hard Tour, so I expect him to end up in the top five.

I do not have a lot of faith that Sastre is fully recovered and/or that his preparation has been good. He basically quit riding after last year's Tour and did almost no race days before the Giro, I question his motivation. He could be going the way of Pereiro. Although, he at least can retire with a legitimate TdF win.
 
Aug 12, 2009
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royalpig180 said:
Yes it's true that Basso had to reach fairly deep to manage the effort it took to win the Giro, but this was not necessarily as damaging as it might seem. For one, remember that Liquigas used 2 "co-leaders" in the Giro (Basso and Nibali) and plan to do the same with Basso and Kreuziger at the tour. If Kreuziger (who admittedley is not as strong as Nibali) can attack off the front at strategic points and take long pulls in the mountains for Basso, that could be a big advantage.

I remember Liquigas had two leaders before the Giro. Their names are Pellizotti and Basso. Nibali was never the leader, ever! Scrub that logic. Roman has publically stated he has a bigger engine than Vincenzo. You're distorting the available information. Nobody will let Roman go in a break. Liquigas will not make a major attack this Tour. They are no stronger than last year and cannot do it against Astana, Saxo, HTC and also the Shack. They will conserve energy and help their captain. Kreuziger can climb very well and has a gun chrono. Last year most people thought he'd do better than Nibali. This year he will do well. Ivan spent too much at the Giro. To suggest otherwise belittles his competition at the Giro and also what is physically needed to win a GT. You are practically impyling he doped if you believe he did not put in as much effort as one suspects.

I agree with Blaxland. Kreuziger will finish higher than Ivan and Evans will do better as well. Sastre will only go for a stage win or KOM jersey.
 
May 4, 2010
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auscyclefan94 said:
Evans has said that he did the same amount of days of racing going into the tour last year but with a bigger break in between. He will be in contention.

After last year's preparation Evans had a shocker in the tour, so it's probably better to hope that his preparation this year is different (better somehow)

You'd have to think that he is in pretty good form after a win in the worlds, fleche wallonne and a strong (but not dominant) ride in the giro. His confidence would have to be better than it was last year too.

Can't ever see him winning the tour (he doesn't seem to know how to use his team - or doesn't seem to be able to get them to work for him) but it would be good to see him mixing it with the other big guys this year.
 
May 23, 2010
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T hink Basso will finish 2nd - Kreuziger will make the early attacks in the mountains which will cost his overall position but will put the other teams on the defensive.
Evans will finish 5th - the rainbow jersey seems to inspire him in a way we have not seen a world champion for many years.
Sastre will finish 6th being well down after two weeks but having a storming finish in the final week as he says "I have never ridden any Grand Tour without the ambition to do well and I'm not going to start now"
thanks