Youth Will Out (Giro 2014)

A lot has been made on the forums and among some journalists and commentators about the rise of young cyclists evidenced by the Giro thus far this year. Are they really dominating their elders?

Here are the relative positions on GC (as of this writing) of the 41 youngest riders in the race, those being tracked for the Young Rider classification.

1 Quintana Nairo
3 Aru Fabio
6 Majka Rafal
8 Kelderman Wilco
21 Henao Gomez Sebastian
29 Preidler Georg
33 Landa Mikel
36 Goos Marc
39 Polanc Jan
51 Poljanski Pawel
52 Battaglin Enrico
55 Wellens Tim
56 Zardini Edoardo
64 Domont Axel
66 Bongiorno Francesco Manuel
69 Cattaneo Mattia
70 Monsalve Yonathan
76 Godoy Yonder
84 Le Bon Johan
89 Vermote Julien
91 McCarthy Jay
92 Colbrelli Sonny
94 Felline Fabio
95 Van der Sande Tosh
96 Puccio Salvatore
105 Haas Nathan
106 Juul-Jensen Christopher
119 Tulik Angelo
121 Moser Moreno
123 Barbin Enrico
124 Boem Nicola
125 Ratto Daniele
138 Bouhanni Nacer
140 Nizzolo Giacomo
143 Viviani Elia
148 Fedi Andrea
150 Romero Jeffry
151 Koch Michel
152 Alafaci Eugenio
154 Hepburn Michael
157 Bol Jetse

Now, here are the relative positions on GC (as of this writing) of the 41 oldest riders in the race.

5 Pozzovivo Domenico
7 Evans Cadel
9 Hesjedal Ryder
13 Basso Ivan
14 Pellizotti Franco
15 Monfort Maxime
16 Dupont Hubert
18 Cunego Damiano
20 Rogers Michael
24 Morabito Steve
25 Sánchez Samuel
32 Mourey Francis
35 Losada Alberto
41 Anton Igor
42 Moreno Daniel
46 Tiralongo Paolo
48 Niemiec Przemyslaw
49 Petrov Evgeni
53 Bak Lars Ytting
54 Vorganov Eduard
57 Gusev Vladimir
61 Sella Emanuele
74 Duque Leonardo
75 Hansen Adam
83 Beppu Fumiyuki
90 Longo Borghini Paolo
93 Tjallingii Maarten
99 Gasparotto Enrico
101 Veikkanen Jussi
113 Quinziato Manuel
114 Paolini Luca
115 Hondo Danilo
118 Mori Manuele
127 Ventoso Fran
129 Bozic Borut
135 Fischer Murilo Antonio
136 Eisel Bernhard
139 Keisse Iljo
141 Ferrari Roberto
147 Chavanel Sébastien
156 Tuft Svein

Any patterns jumping out at anyone? I suppose what I should do is assemble each group of 41 into a "team" and see where they are on time relative to one another, but that's on the far edge of my spreadsheet capabilities (I am a simple writer of stories). What would other interesting ways of looking at the data be? Average time of each group's members?
 
Aug 16, 2011
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Changing of the guard. The older GC guys (Basso, Evans, maybe Hesjedal? etc.) are getting passed it and nearing retirement. While the more middle aged GC guys (Nibs, Contador, Froome, Valverde, etc.) are mostly going to the Tour. And thus the door is left open for the younger riders to do better.

Very nice to see IMHO. :)
 
Main conclusion is that the peak, in-between, years are under represented in top 20 (middle 40 % by age provide 7 of those 20) because the teams have kept their main riders in their peak years out of this race in favour of the tour.

In that respect, it has been a successful trial for many teams in giving younger riders a first crack at team leadership against experienced, if not necessarily at their peak, opposition.
 
I just constructed two ten-man "teams" consisting of the top ten youngest riders versus the top ten oldest riders. While the odds that I made an arithmetical error somewhere are great (this was pure back of the envelope stuff, I didn't use a spreadsheet or anything), I believe the top ten youngsters are absolutely destroying the top ten older gents.

Top ten young riders aggregate time: 718 hours, 6 minutes, 34 seconds.

Top ten oldest riders aggregate time: 795 hours, 42 minutes, 38 seconds.

This probably says more about how the top ten overall are doing compared to the rest of the field than it does anything else, though, and I really need to carry my sums on through the whole "fields of 41" to say anything for sure.
 
Looking at the totals on the current teams classifications reveal that I've made some major error in my "top ten" times. There's something way out whack there, the numbers are too high. I'll look at it again tomorrow. Or possibly Monday when I have the final times to work with.

Edit to add: Well, then again maybe not. I forgot that the team's classification only sums the time of what, the top three riders on each squad? Still, I'll start fresh after the race is done.
 
There was a time where Keldermans 8th place would be considered phenomenal and would ensure the best young rider jersey.
Now he's the only the 4th young guy in the top 8, at 9.4 minutes of the best, who is also leading the general alltogether.

Times have changed, and I'm glad it has changed this way. This is cycling again like in the pre-epo times, in this aspect at least (not in the way they actually race)
 
The site I use for data apparently only goes back three years for details on the Young Riders competition. Here's some context (year, name, final placement, time on GC):

2013 Betancur Carlos (5) +7:28
2012 Uran Rigoberto (7) +5:57
2011 Kreuziger Roman (5) +11:28
 
Aug 16, 2011
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Wikipedia has every year since the competition was added.

1976 Alfio Vandi (ITA) Magniflex-Torpado 7th
1977 Mario Beccia (ITA) Sanson 9th
1978 Roberto Visentini (ITA) Vibor 15th
1979 Silvano Contini (ITA) Bianchi-Faema 5th
1980 Tommy Prim (SWE) Bianchi 4th
1981 Giuseppe Faraca (ITA) Hoonved-Bottecchia 5th
1982 Marco Groppo (ITA) Metauro Mobili-Pinarello 9th
1983 Franco Chioccioli (ITA) Vivi-Benotto 16th
1984 Charly Mottet (FRA) Renault 21st
1985 Alberto Volpi (ITA) Sammontana-Bianchi 10th
1986 Marco Giovannetti (ITA) Gis Gelati 8th
1987 Roberto Conti (ITA) Selca-Conti-Galli 15th
1988 Stefano Tomasini (ITA) Fanini - Seven Up 9th
1989 Vladimir Poulnikov (URS) Alfa Lum-STM 11th
1990 Vladimir Poulnikov (URS) Alfa Lum-BFB Bruciatori 4th
1991 Massimiliano Lelli (ITA) Ariostea 3rd
1992 Pavel Tonkov (CIS) Lampre-Colnago 7th
1993 Pavel Tonkov (RUS) Lampre-Polti 5th
1994 Eugeni Berzin (RUS) Gewiss-Ballan 1st
Was not awarded (1995–2006)
2007 Andy Schleck (LUX) Team CSC 2nd
2008 Riccardo Riccò (ITA) Saunier Duval-Scott 2nd
2009 Kevin Seeldraeyers (BEL) Quick Step 14th
2010 Richie Porte (AUS) Team Saxo Bank 7th
2011 Roman Kreuziger (CZE) Astana 6th
2012 Rigoberto Urán (COL) Team Sky 7th
2013 Carlos Betancur (COL) Ag2r-La Mondiale 5th
 
Apr 16, 2011
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Top 10: The young win 4-3
Top 25: The old win 11-5 (and three of those five are Colombian)
Top 50: The old win 18 -9
11-50: The old win 15 -5

It seems there is a Colombian invasion, and it is a young generation invading.
 
Here are some facts about this year's Giro, with regard to the 41 youngest riders who finished the race (those riders tracked in the White Jersey competition) and the 41 oldest riders who finished the race (a category I more or less made up for the purposes of this thread).

The best placed young rider was Nairo Quintano, who finished in 1st on the general classification.

The best placed older rider was Deomnico Pozzovivo, who finished in 5th on the general classification.

The worst placed young rider was Bol Jetse, who finished in 156th (dead last) on the general classification.

The worst placed older rider was Svein Tuft, who finished in 155th (second last) on the general classification.

The youngest rider in the race, Sebastian Henao, finished in 22nd on GC.

The oldest rider in the race, Danilo Hondo, finished in 114th on GC.

If one constructs a "team" of the 41 youngest riders and another of the 41 oldest and sums their time, we find that the older riders finished in an aggregate 3718 hours: 50 minutes: 29 seconds.

The young riders finished in an aggregate 4912 hours: 37 minutes: 12 seconds.

The older riders "team," then, raced, in aggregate, about 24% faster than the young riders "team."

I'm still thinking of other ways to look at this Youth Rising question with regards to this Giro. Might look at the ages of the stage winners next, which at a guess will trend young.
 
christopherrowe said:
Here are some facts about this year's Giro, with regard to the 41 youngest riders who finished the race (those riders tracked in the White Jersey competition) and the 41 oldest riders who finished the race (a category I more or less made up for the purposes of this thread).

The best placed young rider was Nairo Quintano, who finished in 1st on the general classification.

The best placed older rider was Deomnico Pozzovivo, who finished in 5th on the general classification.

The worst placed young rider was Bol Jetse, who finished in 156th (dead last) on the general classification.

The worst placed older rider was Svein Tuft, who finished in 155th (second last) on the general classification.

The youngest rider in the race, Sebastian Henao, finished in 22nd on GC.

The oldest rider in the race, Danilo Hondo, finished in 114th on GC.

If one constructs a "team" of the 41 youngest riders and another of the 41 oldest and sums their time, we find that the older riders finished in an aggregate 3718 hours: 50 minutes: 29 seconds.

The young riders finished in an aggregate 4912 hours: 37 minutes: 12 seconds.

The older riders "team," then, raced, in aggregate, about 24% faster than the young riders "team."

I'm still thinking of other ways to look at this Youth Rising question with regards to this Giro. Might look at the ages of the stage winners next, which at a guess will trend young.
There is something wrong with your arithmetic there on the aggregate times, if you take your times you have 1194 hours difference, which divided by 41 gives around 29 hours differnces on average, however the last rider was within 6 hours of the winner:)
 
Jun 19, 2013
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This is a GT and 4 top finishers in the top ten is pretty impressive. It would appear that Quintano and Kelderman are for real, just hope the other two are as well. The problem is the ghost of Aitor Gonzales and Oscar Sevilla still haunt me. They came, they saw, they conquered, and after that you had to scan the back of the peloton just to find them. Popovych was another one, he hung tough in a couple of Giro`s and ended up as one of Lance's whipping boys.
 
del1962 said:
There is something wrong with your arithmetic there on the aggregate times, if you take your times you have 1194 hours difference, which divided by 41 gives around 29 hours differnces on average, however the last rider was within 6 hours of the winner:)
My degrees are in creative writing, I'm afraid. :D
 
Sep 8, 2009
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oscar babyface still conquers. he won every race pretty much in colombia and south america.he was and is awesome .but he was blacklisted for evber from europe by the uci
aitor gonzalez on the other hand, was a mobster who happened to ride a bicycle from time to time :p robbery and all kind of stuff, isn't behind bars? he was great too.
 
Okay, hopefully my (minimal) arithmetic on this one isn't screwed up.

Fourteen men won individual stage victories in this years Giro. Here are their names (with their number of wins in parentheses), followed by their ages. They're ranked oldest to youngest.

Michael Rogers (2) | 34 years, 186 days
Peter Weening (1) | 33 years, 94 days
Rigoberto Uran (1) | 27 years, 141 days
Stefano Pirazzi (1) | 27 years, 112 days
Marcel Kittel (2) | 26 years, 22 days
Luka Mezgec (1) | 25 years, 352 days
Julián David Arredondo (1) | 25 years, 316 days
Marco Canola (1) | 25 years, 171 days
Diego Ulissi (2) | 24 years, 346 days
Enrico Battaglin (1) | 24 years, 219 days
Nairo Quintana (2) | 24 years, 153 days
Fabio Aru (1) | 23 years, 340 days
Nacer Bouhanni (3) | 23 years, 318 days
Michael Matthews (1) | 23 years, 262 days

I make the average age of the stage winners 26 years, 180 days then.
 
Dekker_Tifosi said:
There was a time where Keldermans 8th place would be considered phenomenal and would ensure the best young rider jersey.
Now he's the only the 4th young guy in the top 8, at 9.4 minutes of the best, who is also leading the general alltogether.

Times have changed, and I'm glad it has changed this way. This is cycling again like in the pre-epo times, in this aspect at least (not in the way they actually race)
On the other hand the gt before this one had maybe the oldest average age of top 10 in history.

Even the white jersey was in his mid 30s ;)
 
May 19, 2014
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I really enjoyed the performances of these young riders and the mutual competition for the white jersey. Now I am wondering if Quintana, Aru, Kelderman and Sebas. Henao are part of a very strong generation? Or will it become usual to have more contenders for the white jersey in the top 10? (I assume the last?)

However I don't directly see that much talent in the u23 ranks. Because there is in this forum a lot knowledge about the junior ranks I will ask you who will be the next Kelderman/Quintana/Aru?

Amongst the young pro's we've already seen Kudus, the Yates's, Meintjes, Craddock and Mohoric? Are they good enough?

In the u23 ranks there are maybe Benoot, Vervaeke, Geoghegan, Swirbull?, Power and Herklotz? These are great talents, but I can't estimate if they will become GC contenders, do you?
 
burgyv said:
I really enjoyed the performances of these young riders and the mutual competition for the white jersey. Now I am wondering if Quintana, Aru, Kelderman and Sebas. Henao are part of a very strong generation? Or will it become usual to have more contenders for the white jersey in the top 10? (I assume the last?)

However I don't directly see that much talent in the u23 ranks. Because there is in this forum a lot knowledge about the junior ranks I will ask you who will be the next Kelderman/Quintana/Aru?

Amongst the young pro's we've already seen Kudus, the Yates's, Meintjes, Craddock and Mohoric? Are they good enough?

In the u23 ranks there are maybe Benoot, Vervaeke, Geoghegan, Swirbull?, Power and Herklotz? These are great talents, but I can't estimate if they will become GC contenders, do you?
There's also the likes of Dennis, Kwiatkowski, Talansky, Chaves and Morton amongst the current pros. In U23 racing results don't always guarantee success at pro level, there's usually many who "underdeliver" (such as Romain Sicard) and "overdeliver" (eg: Andy Schleck) if all you look at is the U23 results and performances.
 

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