Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[proffate]

Not very convinced that either one would ride as hard with the other one on their wheel as either one did on their own the past two LBLs. I would expect a lot of accelerations and then regrouping of the top 10-15.

I think they would both ride enough to stay away. Neither one wants to be the one who didn't cooperate and get labeled afraid of the other, especially because they've never gone head to head in a sprint to establish a pecking order.

 

[Hugh Januss]

I think they would both ride enough to stay away. Neither one wants to be the one who didn't cooperate and get labeled afraid of the other, especially because they've never gone head to head in a sprint to establish a pecking order.

Maybe, but I feel like each one would think the best plan would be to leave the other one back in chase group 1 where they would be constantly foiled by the others in their chase attempts.

 

[Oldermanish]

huh?

We don't know that. However, given what we have seen from Remco, it is highly unlikely Tadej would have dropped him (and vice versa)

Likely would have been a 1 on 1 sprint 5 minutes ahead of the peloton

Remco couldn't drop the newbie from JV....so there's no "highly unlikely" qualification on his effort. Watched that race in depth tonight and the most important thing I noticed was Tadej didn't waste much energy and his tactics after Redoute were flawless.
It wasn't an "extraterrestrial" effort and Remco would likely have been on his wheel if he made the same flawless ride to that point. That's rare in a race of that length, too.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Remco couldn't drop the newbie from JV....so there's no "highly unlikely" qualification on his effort. Watched that race in depth tonight and the most important thing I noticed was Tadej didn't waste much energy and his tactics after Redoute were flawless.
It wasn't an "extraterrestrial" effort and Remco would likely have been on his wheel if he made the same flawless ride to that point. That's rare in a race of that length, too.

So, because he couldn't drop Jorgenson, who was in immediate preparation to his spring classics, in a 109km stage on his home turf (Jorgenson lives in Nice), while Evenepoel at the time was about a month behind in preparation comparatively, you think that says something about how he would have done LBL over 265km?

 

[AmRacer]

So, because he couldn't drop Jorgenson, who was in immediate preparation to his spring classics, in a 109km stage on his home turf (Jorgenson lives in Nice), while Evenepoel at the time was about a month behind in preparation comparatively, you think that says something about how he would have done LBL over 265km?

Poggi and Jonas could've dropped Jorgenson even though they were a month behind.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Poggi and Jonas could've dropped Jorgenson even though they were a month behind.

Jonas is indeed very good at children-length stages/races. We eagerly await him making a dent in anything longer than 220km.

 

[Berniece]

UAE wins a lot without Pogacar. Maybe not big races but they can win a lot

SOQ isn’t at the same level as UAE, since they have completely different budgets, but SOQ can also win without Evenepoel

 

[AmRacer]

SOQ isn’t at the same level as UAE, since they have completely different budgets, but SOQ can also win without Evenepoel

All teams can occasionally win a race every now and then.
SOQ should decide what kind of team they want, and afford, to be.

 

[Berniece]

All teams can occasionally win a race every now and then.
SOQ should decide what kind of team they want, and afford, to be.

If everyone performed at their normal level I don’t see an issue with their team.

 

[Oldermanish]

So, because he couldn't drop Jorgenson, who was in immediate preparation to his spring classics, in a 109km stage on his home turf (Jorgenson lives in Nice), while Evenepoel at the time was about a month behind in preparation comparatively, you think that says something about how he would have done LBL over 265km?

Yes. I would think compared to what Pogacar was doing at the same time Remco would have had to rode tactically very well to stay in that front gap. Anyone would have.
Remco was hanging on to Jorgenson's wheel on a stage that every fan knew the route....and made the bargain to take the stage, too.

 

[wheresmybrakes]

Remco has done both very successfully

Correct, but look at QS now Remco is OOA. They rely solely on him for wins.

 

[wheresmybrakes]

What is UAE without Pogacar? Which monument or GT are they going to win without him?

It isn't just about monuments and GT's though is it?

 

[rghysens]

If everyone performed at their normal level I don’t see an issue with their team.

Who says this isn´t their normal level? Their performances in the cobbled classics have been more or less the same for the past 3 years: crap.

 

[shadowrider]

I would be really interested to see him in RVV. I really think he is the best rouleur by far and would be a pain in the ass in the parts in between hills and the last part after the Paterberg. But rememberig Brabantse Pijl and his technical difficulties on that cobbled climb i am worried for Paterberg and Koppenberg (especially when wet). Would really want to see it! Also for Paris-Roubaix he has the motor and aerodynamic position (for the non cobbled sections). He is not bad on cobbles (see previous results) but maybe not good enough?

Even on dry cobbles, Evenepoel, will have no chance at Koppenberg and Patersberg. Probably from the bike at Koppenberg and losing a minute there (usually means that the rider no longer gets to the front). Losing 15 to 20 seconds at the Patersberg. I don't think Evenepoel can ever win Flanders. But he should definitely participate once and as soon as possible. To become a better and more all-round rider and gain confidence for winding and explosive cycling roads.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Yes. I would think compared to what Pogacar was doing at the same time Remco would have had to rode tactically very well to stay in that front gap. Anyone would have.
Remco was hanging on to Jorgenson's wheel on a stage that every fan knew the route....and made the bargain to take the stage, too.

If Evenepoel doesn't get dropped on La Redoute, the only chance of Pogacar dropping him, would be on the steep section of RaF. If you think anything else, you clearly have not been paying attention the past 5 years. Not only that, he would have to drop him hard, or Evenepoel would close the gap on the flatter sections.
And there is also quite the difference between knowing the route as a spectator, and having it as your training ground. Especially since Evenepoel had not ridden it before, not even raced in France before.

But if you want to compare Evenepoel in PN, which anyone could see was not him in peak shape, to Pogacar in LBL, then that is your prerogative.

 

[Berniece]

Who says this isn´t their normal level? Their performances in the cobbled classics have been more or less the same for the past 3 years: crap.

Because before Asgreen won De Ronde, Alaphilippe won Flèche and 2 world titles and Lampaert was on his way to ride podium in Roubaix

 

[Froome]

If Evenepoel doesn't get dropped on La Redoute, the only chance of Pogacar dropping him, would be on the steep section of RaF. If you think anything else, you clearly have not been paying attention the past 5 years. Not only that, he would have to drop him hard, or Evenepoel would close the gap on the flatter sections.
And there is also quite the difference between knowing the route as a spectator, and having it as your training ground. Especially since Evenepoel had not ridden it before, not even raced in France before.

But if you want to compare Evenepoel in PN, which anyone could see was not him in peak shape, to Pogacar in LBL, then that is your prerogative.

Not sure about that, because if Evenepoel were dropped, it would mean Pogacar is more fresher than him. Based on that, the fact Remco would be more tired in the flat, it would be difficult for him to close the gap to Pogacar, who probably would be in better condition phisically in the flat section.

The situation would be very different from a normal TT.

 

[Salvarani]

Who says this isn´t their normal level? Their performances in the cobbled classics have been more or less the same for the past 3 years: crap.

Asgreen has had similiar health issues as someone like Schachmann, if I am not mistaken.

Ala, crashes and age. Not as hungry anymore.

Lampaert is okay/solid but nothing special. Except for 3rd in De-Panne in brutal conditions, he hasnt been doing much in the past couple of seasons in the classics. It is more that he has done well in ITTs.

I tend to agree that this is the normal level for them, these days.

 

[houtdffan]

Yes. I would think compared to what Pogacar was doing at the same time Remco would have had to rode tactically very well to stay in that front gap. Anyone would have.
Remco was hanging on to Jorgenson's wheel on a stage that every fan knew the route....and made the bargain to take the stage, too.

Remco was dictating the pace for the overwhelming majority of that stage

 

[Netserk]

So, because he couldn't drop Jorgenson, who was in immediate preparation to his spring classics, in a 109km stage on his home turf (Jorgenson lives in Nice), while Evenepoel at the time was about a month behind in preparation comparatively, you think that says something about how he would have done LBL over 265km?

Same scenario for Pogi last year. He convincingly dropped everyone (including Jorgenson) in that stage.

 

[Volderke]

With regards to another duel that didn't happen (Remco vs. Pog):
1. Pog did a terrific climb on La Redoute, riding 10s faster in 2024 (4:02) than Remco's (TRAINING) ride in 2023 (4:12). Pog was fast because he started early, and ofcourse, he kept his monstruous pace.
--> would Remco have been able to follow? Normally, just, but not by a margin. He could have well been dropped but not by more than 5-10 seconds.

2. The next bit of road where Pog had any chance of dropping Remco was indeed on Roche-aux-faucons (both the steep part and the last part). I agree that, if Pog dropped Remco, it would have been very hard for Remco (or anyone) to TT his way back as you simply have a big disadvantage going into the red and having to chase (going even deeper into the red) someone who just dropped you.

As for winning chances, I think Remco could have had a fair chance in the sprint, but Pog has a better chance dropping Remco and as much of a chance (or slightly better) winning the sprint.
Chances of Remco dropping Pog somewhere in between hills is what I would like to see attempted at least once in their duels, but I don't think Pog is droppable (by anyone for that matter) in a race like this one.

 

[Froome]

With regards to another duel that didn't happen (Remco vs. Pog):
1. Pog did a terrific climb on La Redoute, riding 10s faster in 2024 (4:02) than Remco's (TRAINING) ride in 2023 (4:12). Pog was fast because he started early, and ofcourse, he kept his monstruous pace.
--> would Remco have been able to follow? Normally, just, but not by a margin. He could have well been dropped but not by more than 5-10 seconds.

2. The next bit of road where Pog had any chance of dropping Remco was indeed on Roche-aux-faucons (both the steep part and the last part). I agree that, if Pog dropped Remco, it would have been very hard for Remco (or anyone) to TT his way back as you simply have a big disadvantage going into the red and having to chase (going even deeper into the red) someone who just dropped you.

As for winning chances, I think Remco could have had a fair chance in the sprint, but Pog has a better chance dropping Remco and as much of a chance (or slightly better) winning the sprint.
Chances of Remco dropping Pog somewhere in between hills is what I would like to see attempted at least once in their duels, but I don't think Pog is droppable (by anyone for that matter) in a race like this one.

That's my point.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

2. The next bit of road where Pog had any chance of dropping Remco was indeed on Roche-aux-faucons (both the steep part and the last part). I agree that, if Pog dropped Remco, it would have been very hard for Remco (or anyone) to TT his way back as you simply have a big disadvantage going into the red and having to chase (going even deeper into the red) someone who just dropped you.

Evenepoel doesn't have to go in the red to ride others off his wheel on flat/false flat after a hard race. Do you think he was going all out when he dropped Pidcock? Was the snot dangling from his face? Your assumption is correct for about anybody in the peloton, Evenepoel being the exception. There is a reason why guys like Roglic refuse to ride with him, even if the situation is beneficial for him by doing so. If Pogacar only drops him by 10-15 meters, Evenepoel will close the gap on the flat. No ifs or buts. Which is why i said he needs to drop him hard.

 

[how yes no?]

I mean ok, it is fun entertaining different scenarios, like would Pogačar drop Evenepoel and where and by how much... but if we are talking about actually winning the LBL, it's Evenepoel who should be more concerned with dropping Pogačar than the other way around as I really don't expect Pogačar to ever lose a sprint vs Evenepoel, not that Evenepoel is a bad sprinter the last year or so. I also think he is a worse descender than Pogačar (not that Pogačar is great), so even if he would drop Pogačar (lol) by a small margin, I think he would not be able to stay ahead on descent (and would have additional trouble catching up if behind).

Now we can return to fun and games.

 

[Netserk]

If Evenepoel is dropped by Pogi in Liège, he is not coming back. Partly because he won't let him go and slowly reel him in again.