Giro d'Italia Giro d’Italia 2024, Stage 14: Castigliano delle Stiviere – Desenzano del Garda, 31.2k (ITT)

[Netserk]

Well, Martinez and Thomas are both saving their matches for this TT where they hope to take second place, O‘Connor hasn‘t really had the courage to do anything after Oropa and Tiberi is accelerating almost RoboBasso-like so far and just hasn‘t succeeded because he‘s been going kind of half-assed so far. Rubio has looked good up to now and should think about attacking at altitude on Sunday, because he‘ll be an hour down at that point. The others are fighting themselves using breakaways. I hope Bardet has found his mojo now because he‘s the one I‘d be looking at for a bigger move.

We've had some "gravitational" forces in play so far. Martinez was held up by a mechanical on Oropa and had Lipo pull like crazy (with help from Uijtdebroeks) while O'Connor and Thomas got burned by Pogi's draft, so they all ended up together. On Tivo, Pogi killed all action before the sprint; had he attacked with 4 km to go, the rest would likely also have been separated. And on Bocca della Selva they faced a headwind.

I fully expect Decathlon to go to town tomorrow and Big Ben to light it up, even if I fear that it will be a (fast) train ride until Mottolino.

 

[Netserk]

Why so much better than the T2 split in the first ITT?

I think that gap was partly down to wind and pacing. Now it's stage 14 and Pogi had an easier stage yesterday than Ganna had (slightly so), unlike before the previous ITT.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Why so much better for Pogacar than the T2 split in the first ITT?

The biggest reason is a very light start by Pogacar in the 1st TT (and opposite by Ganna actually). In the second section Pog lost only 3 seconds to Ganna. This time it's full gas for the whole TT. On top of that it's a bit more rolling than the first 2/3 of the previous TT and we are deeper into the race.

 

[Stan955]

The biggest reason is a very light start by Pogacar in the 1st TT (and opposite by Ganna actually). In the second section Pog lost only 3 seconds to Ganna. This time it's full gas for the whole TT. On top of that it's a bit more rolling than the first 2/3 of the previous TT and we are deeper into the race.

But how do you know that Ganna was not holding something back too for the 2nd part in order to not explode?

 

[Krzysztof_O]

But how do you know that Ganna was not holding something back too for the 2nd part in order to not explode?

Everybody was holding something back but it was Pog who advanced from 10th in the first split to 3rd in the second and his acceleration compared to competition was striking. OTOH Ganna's advantage over his rivals was significant already in the first split.

 

[Tim Cahill]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1791733318662160587

Nice to see someone actually admit it for once

 

[Peyroteo94]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1791733318662160587

Nice to see someone actually admit it for once

Cippo is back!

 

[KZD]

I think the fact that Ganna will likely have the opportunity to overtake some 4 or 5 riders should be enough to give him the hedge over Pogačar but the gap between the two should be less than 20 seconds.

I think Sheffield will come third again and Thomas should be the best of the rest among GC riders narrowly overtaking Martinez in the GC.

 

[Didinho]

How can we expect Milan here? Maybe too long for him I guess. And is he willing to go deep for some extra ciclamino points or take it easy today?

 

[Krzysztof_O]

I think the fact that Ganna will likely have the opportunity to overtake some 4 or 5 riders should be enough to give him the hedge over Pogačar but the gap between the two should be less than 20 seconds.

Good point! It could give him some seconds. Wasn't he favoured in the same way during the first TT though?

 

[Offline]

I think the fact that Ganna will likely have the opportunity to overtake some 4 or 5 riders should be enough to give him the hedge over Pogačar but the gap between the two should be less than 20 seconds.

I think Sheffield will come third again and Thomas should be the best of the rest among GC riders narrowly overtaking Martinez in the GC.

Agree Ganna has a huge advantage having riders and cars in the front of him he can overtake.

Good point! It could give him some seconds. Wasn't he favoured in the same way during the first TT though?

Yeah and that make Pogacar’s win even more impressive

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Agree Ganna has a huge advantage having riders and cars in the front of him he can overtake.



Yeah and that make Pogacar’s win even more impressive

If Ganna overtakes for example 3 guys and Pogacar none this could lead to some significant gains. I remember @Logic-is-your-friend showed some numbers illustrating the time gain when overtaking a guy during a TT and it wasn't that small.

 

[Rob5091]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1791733318662160587

Nice to see someone actually admit it for once

No, no. He's sick and the doctor says he needs to relax on a beach.

 

[Rob5091]

Who of the GC men to take it easy before tomorrow's stage? Difficult decision for many I imagine. Get the balance right and it could pay off well.

 

[tobydawq]

Who of the GC men to take it easy before tomorrow's stage? Difficult decision for many I imagine. Get the balance right and it could pay off well.

Huh? Obviously nobody...

 

[Ilmaestro99]

If you're bored watching the gregarios, the sprinters and Tobias foss go out early in the TT and ride tempo, you can watch the hilly stage on 4 days de dunquerke, where Fausto Masnada has attacked and is leading the virtual GC

 

[CyclistAbi]

Who of the GC men to take it easy before tomorrow's stage? Difficult decision for many I imagine. Get the balance right and it could pay off well.

Thomas?

 

[scribers]

I think pogi will manage splits today and secure his form for tomorrow

 

[Potomac]

Why is this on a Saturday?

So parents don't have to take their children out of school to watch it.

 

[will-10]

Arensman has taken the long way round to get there but will be right where we all expected in 6th on GC at the end of the day

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

If Ganna overtakes for example 3 guys and Pogacar none this could lead to some significant gains. I remember @Logic-is-your-friend showed some numbers illustrating the time gain when overtaking a guy during a TT and it wasn't that small.

There has not been exact testing in windtunnels or controlled environments as far as i know. But there is a lot of circumstantial evidence and examples of "peculiar" outcomes. Then you also have common sense, knowing that slight changes in bikeframe, skinsuits (texture), helmets or postitioning in windtunnel testing, can give huge gains in a long TT. There has been extensive testing which indicates riding even 10m behind a motorbike gives immense advantages (i posted those on the forum a few years ago). It would be ridiculous to assume the advantage of being able to ride in someone's slipstream for a while would not result in a substantial gain.

The exact conditions would play a huge part obviously. Overtaking your minute man on a narrow, bendy or even straight-up technical parcours could very well hurt your end result, you might have to slow down to overtake the team car or the rider in a specific turn, while having had little aero draft in return. Also the rider himself would play a big role. If the guy is soft pedalling the TT at 10kmh slower, the amount of time you are drafting would be small. But if the guy is going all out and is for instance only 2s slower per km, then you get a large timeframe for potential draft. Then imagine you get to overtake him on a long straight road and the wind is in your face. You'd literally get slingshot past a rider after having benefitted for maybe multiple kilometers. In such a case i am certain we are not just talking about a 1 or 2 second gain but easily into 10+ seconds per rider you overtake. If one rider gets to overtake 3 riders, and the other 0, and the difference at the finish is 15 seconds, i 'd bet the outcome would have been different in equal conditions, let alone if the conditions were swapped.

 

[Netserk]

Best time will be between 34'00" and 34'30", I think. Very fast route.

 

[KOM]

If you're bored watching the gregarios, the sprinters and Tobias foss go out early in the TT and ride tempo, you can watch the hilly stage on 4 days de dunquerke, where Fausto Masnada has attacked and is leading the virtual GC

Technically youre not wrong, but "has attacked and is leading virtual GC" is a rather generous way of saying "hes in the doomed breakway of the day of 3"

 

[tobydawq]

Best time will be between 34'00" and 34'30", I think. Very fast route.

Yet the first intermediates are at 47 kph.

 

[Netserk]

Yet the first intermediates are at 47 kph.

That's the slowest part (slower than I initially expected though). Cerny's final time will be a good indication.