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Giro d'Italia Giro d’Italia 2024, Stage 7: Foligno – Perugia, 40.6k (ITT)

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I still expect O'Connor to do a good TT.
I expect him to be better than someone like Plapp, who has one top10 in ITTs as a pro outside of Australia (and that top10 was the Commonwealth games). Van Rysel bikes seem to perform at very high level too.

Dani Martinez is very hard to predict for me.
Good test for Tiberi, as his TTing has massively stepped up this year.
Uijtdebroeks has yet to crack the top100 in an ITT with Visma but I'm confident he will surprise today.
One among Lopez, Rubio and Fortunato will lose more than 4 minutes.
 
I don't think Pogacar will put so much time into Thomas, mostly because the TT is in the first week, not the last one. We've also had 3 sprint stages and the stage yesterday, so it's not like the legs will be extremely fatigued. I wouldn't be surprised if the gap will be within 20-30s
 
https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/giro-d-italia/2023/stage-9.

Pogacar there better than Evenepoel? Mich better tan Roglic? He can put time today at Thomas. Wouldbt be a surprise whit that slope at the end, but norr than half a minute for me q surprise and more than one minute big surprise. If It would be totally flat, I expect Thomas better. But Thomas is very good on those kind of small climbs at ITT as well.
 
Nah I'll just finally reach out to Scarjo

RR: Scarjo, will you date me?
Scarjo: HAHAHA! No. What made you think that you had a chance with me?
RR: Choo-choo.
Scarjo: Choo-choo?
RR: I choo-choo choose you. Anything is possible.
Scarjo: And I said no! Even if you think I'm the goat.
RR: 'silence'
Scarjo: Earth to Red Rick (I'm not sure how she knows your name)!
RR: Sorry; I was imagining you in pink. And I'm also sorry that you don't believe in miracles.
Scarjo: Hey, didn't that cycling guy Lance Armstrong say that? I liked that dude. You're alright, let's go out.
RR: Actually let's not.
 
RR: Scarjo, will you date me?
Scarjo: HAHAHA! No. What made you think that you had a chance with me?
RR: Choo-choo.
Scarjo: Choo-choo?
RR: I choo-choo choose you. Anything is possible.
Scarjo: And I said no! Even if you think I'm the goat.
RR: 'silence'
Scarjo: Earth to Red Rick (I'm not sure how she knows your name)!
RR: Sorry; I was imagining you in pink. And I'm also sorry that you don't believe in miracles.
Scarjo: Hey, didn't that cycling guy Lance Armstrong say that? I liked that dude. You're alright, let's go out.
RR: Actually let's not.
After reading this I have reconsidered.

If Geraint Thomas shows the world he is the strongest cyclist, I will just mope about on this forum, cause maybe that Primoz Roglic buttattoo was a mistake
 
Good to see a long TT back in a Grand Tour. For the stage win, its going to be between Ganna and Pogačar.

Ganna should be a bit fster than Pogačar until the climb, even though I think Pogačar will be close enough to turn things around in the second part.

Among GC riders, Thomas should be the one closer to Pogačar, if he manages to lose less than 30 seconds it would be really good but I think it will be more around 45 seconds. O'Connor will probably be the best of the rest.

I will keep an eye of Sheffield who did a great TT in the Algarve earlier this year.
 
Looking at Martinez‘ results in time trials, he‘s actually really good, even though he doesn‘t look like it at all, will be interesting to see how he does. He shouldn‘t lose much, though.
in the past, Bora often used to do these time trials not at 100% to stay fresh for the following mountain stages instead, but no idea if this is still the way they approach things. Nonetheless, he should probably have an advantage compared to most of the other podium contenders.

During last year's Tour it was brought up that Pogacar did a bike change in the ITT because the Colnago bike came with a weight handicap. If this is still the case, his advantage on the climb today may be a bit smaller than expected.
 
Ganna favourite for me. Expect him to take at least 30-40s on the flat and with decent climbing legs should enable him to hold off Pog.
But after the rather short but steep climb in the final, the legs of Ganna will explode. After that climb, there is a 5 km "up and down" part but with a 3 to 4 % (uphill) in average. Those last km, the riders able to push a strong gear, will take many seconds. I'm convinced Poga will be able to do that. Ganna, due to his efforts to take as much time as possible the (flat) first 30 km, and because his legs will be full on that 1.4 km steep climb, will lose there the time he took during the first 30 km.
And Thomas ? He was destroyed by Roglic at the (very difficult) end of the TT in the Giro 23. This TT suits Thomas better (longer, with a less difficult final climb). But Poga is also stronger than Roglic. So.....
 
But after the rather short but steep climb in the final, the legs of Ganna will explode. After that climb, there is a 5 km "up and down" part but with a 3 to 4 % (uphill) in average. Those last km, the riders able to push a strong gear, will take many seconds. I'm convinced Poga will be able to do that. Ganna, due to his efforts to take as much time as possible the (flat) first 30 km, and because his legs will be full on that 1.4 km steep climb, will lose there the time he took during the first 30 km.
And Thomas ? He was destroyed by Roglic at the (very difficult) end of the TT in the Giro 23. This TT suits Thomas better (longer, with a less difficult final climb). But Poga is also stronger than Roglic. So.....
Pogacar doesn't love the TT bike on moderate climbing sections. I'm not entirely convinced Ganna explodes on the 3% sections. Plus the UAE TT bike is quite heavy.