There seems to be little buzz around this Giro compared to other years. With one overwhelming favorite not much suspense is expected for the final victory, but one never knows. Pogacar has shown top shape, while the rest of the field seems relatively weak. Some contenders might be too old for another GT podium: Thomas, Caruso, Bardet. Others might be too young: Uijtdebroeks, Tiberi, Lipowitz. Those who have the right age aren't the most consistent: O'Connor, Lutsenko, Martínez.
When we compare the teams' strength UAE looks good, although it's not their A selection. Ineos and Decathlon also have a decent GC team. Visma is primarily built around sprinter Olav Kooij. Soudal-Q has Merlier for the sprints and several stage hunters.
With two MTFs and a long time trial in the first eight days Pogacar could take pink early and defend in the second half of the Giro. Most of the GC riders have a defensive riding style. Exceptions are Bardet, O'Connor and Martinez, but their attacks probably won't hurt Pogacar. UAE might even be in a position to decide who finishes second.
The toughest stages are stage 15 and stage 20. In stage 15 the gentler side of the Mortirolo will lead to a selection with the strongest climbers, and everything will fall apart before the finish at 2385 m altitude. Stage 16 comes right after the resting day, so the early climb of the Stelvio might come at the worst moment for one or two GC riders. Stage 20 over the Grappa twice is very tough, but it's doubtful whether there will still be suspense for the pink jersey. At least we will see a lot of beautiful scenery, and watching Pogacar on those iconic climbs is something to treasure.