2011 speculation.

[The Hitch]

I suppose the Vuelta rest day is as good a time as any to ask this.

We are approaching the end of the season, and by now know what schedules riders had for this season. For most top riders, the season is effictively over.
Time to speculate what people will do next season. Who will target what. Who will be team leaders. What will the profiles be like.

Particularly people like Cadel Evans, Ivan Basso, Sammuel Sanchez, Joaquim Rodriguez, Dennis Menchov, Nibali?

Which Gt will they go for. Which gts should they go for?

Is Evans going for classics. What will BMC even be invited to? Is Basso going to defend his tilte or save energy for another shot at Le tour. Which Gt will Samu choose? Menchov? Who will step up and be the leader of Caisse?

And the future generation, Kreuziger, Gesink, TJV Porte, Roche, Uran. Johnnie Walker Will they step up. Will Henao try to conquer europe?

Will sagan ride a classic/ gt?
Anyone have a idea of what next years giro will look like? We know roughly how the tour looks like. It cant be as hilly as 2010?

And Fabian Cancellara? will he try Paris Roubaix number 3? Will he go for ardennes? What will Boonen go for?

I personaly think Basso will skip the Giro and go for the Tour. Evans should go for LBL and might do the Giro but skip the tour, and go for the Vuelta- his best chance at a gt. Cancellara should and will skip the cobbles do focus on the Ardennes classics. Boonen will go for MSR and try to hold form through to the cobbles. Then go for the worlds after a long break. Sagan will not ride a gt but will go for a non monument classic. World Champion Phillipe Gilbert will go for LBL and get a 2nd monument. Menchov will go for the Giro again and win it unless contador is there. Lampre with Scarponi and Liqui with Nibali will challenge him. Danillo di luca, back from suspenion will ride the Vuelta. Samu, like Evans will get his best shot at a gt at the vuelta. Kreuziger will go for that too.

Anyone else wish to speculate?

 

[Parrulo]

contador will for the tour/vuelta duo(due to sponsers and defending his tittle he will not go for the giro/tour duo cus its more risky tour wise)

basso will take chances on the tour like he already said(he just did the giro this year to prove his other win was clean)

menchov will take tour with geox, the new sponsor invested too much and they need a good result, with menchov is almost 100% sure that they will get a top 5. sastre will do the giro vuelta.

samu will do the tour and vuelta as he wants a tour podium(was close this year) and may try for an actual win at the vuelta but due to contador being there he will fail. also he will have to share his tour spot light(not a bad thing cus it will be helpfull for him in the montains) with the guy that finished the vuelta in third place behind nibali and shleck AKA igor anton.

nibali will ride the giro and win so he gets that little bit of experience that will make him a sure bet for the tour 2012(a podium at least)

cancelara will got for the ardennes but i don't see him beating the likes of gilbert, cunego and baby shleck.

boonen will dominate the cobbles with an epic fight with thor(mostly due to cancelara focusing on the ardenes) sagan will disappoint if he rides a cobbles classic(one of the big ones i mean).

porte will do the giro and help contador in the tour.

baby shleck will do the usual 4 weeks of racing in the year(almost like armstrong but baby shleck does ride 1 week more) big bro shleck will do the same 4 weeks + the vuelta

gesink will do the tour with rabo and top 5. kreuziger will ride the tour

surprise/confirmations of the year: TJVG(after cracking big time in the last week of this year vuelta he will get a top 10 with a good perfromance) tiago machado will win one or 2 1 week races like the paris nice, dauphine and vuelta ao pais basco and top 10 a grand tour with a stage win and super exciting perfomance like he usually does. rui costa, uran and TGBM will also perform very well and get some victories. uran might top 10 a grand tour. TGBM and rui costa don't have legs for it yet even tho costa will get a lot more victories then the other 2 in 1 week races and stages.

guys that will come back for a good season after a bad year: wiggo, gerdmen and a couple others who's names i am missing atm.

p.s. martin will go bullimic and lose enough weight to perform well in le tour.

sorry for the long *** post xD

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Riders who will have a great season (I'm a bit busy so just some random thoughts):

- Nibali will be doing very well in the ardennes and will win the Giro (unless Contador decides that he wants to win it).
- Kiserlovski, Uran, Intxausti, Kreder, Geniez and Bole will be the guys to watch.
- Anton will take another step up in the Tour.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

nibali / kreuziger / Gesink will all ride the tour. Personally I'd love to see gesink opt. for the giro / vuelta double instead, but I doubt that. Mollema will also waste his time at the tour as a domestique for gesink.

Speaking of gesink - call be biased, whatever - but I do believe 2011 he will finally turn these promising results, into victories. I think he will win a short stage race or two (Basque maybe?), and which ever GT he rides, will be a serious contender for the podium (possibly victory if he avoids the tour.. or conta / schleck ).

Sagan will probably ride the tour, and have a EBH-like debut.
Sicard will do a gt also, probably tour also.

Boonen will do what he always does.
Spartacus had mention the ardennes, so he should probably start attempting this, and thus avoiding the cobbles.

I expect Basso will defend the giro, and again fail at the tour. Depends on the course though ( i suspect this will influence a couple of riders choice).

Unless the tour is a joke-2009-course again, wiggo will fail miserably there.

Samu to win vuelta next year.

Menchov will ride tour and top 5, if not repeat his feat from this year.
Depends on the development and form of youngsters like nibali, anton (who i believe will be stronger yet) and gesink imo. Samu also will be up there, and maybe even rodriguez. Oh and Evans if he - which i think he will - skips the giro. But I suspect teh course will be a big factor in whom takes podium.

Evans will have a similar season, Be strong in the ardennes, probably skip the giro - he will almost certainly ride the tour (and fail) and then bounce back and compete for the vuelta, and probably podium Overall he will be very consistent tho.

However, TGBM hits form, he will probably win every single event he enters.

 

[joy118118]

I looked forward to Sicard finishing this vuelta then having a try in Tour. But now he doesnt take part in it. I expect him to take part in Giro next year. Tour is too soon for him.

It seems TVG will have a debut in Tour next year.

I'd like to see how good TP and other neo-pros will be next year.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

I was looking forward to be seing a bit more from Sicard this year too. Btw, Euskaltel won't get invited to the Giro or will they?

And who is TP?

 

[Jamsque]

Toilet Paper.

 

[sublimit]

Cav to ride the Giro and not the lame Tour Of California again.

Sagan will get a semi classic, ride the Tour and go close a few times, sort of like Nicholas Roche last year, Hagen this year.

Levi will bore everybody ****less in every race he competes in.

The Tyler add for transitions glasses will still be going strong on Eurosport.

 

[theswordsman]

contador will for the tour/vuelta duo(due to sponsers and defending his tittle he will not go for the giro/tour duo cus its more risky tour wise)

I like the logic of this, but think the decision will be made after all three courses have been revealed and evaluated. Riding the Tour is probably a given, but I think the other choice should come down to which race has stages suited to his abilities.

It's also way too easy for him to end his season once he's won the Tour, citing how difficult his year has been.

 

[joy118118]

I was looking forward to be seing a bit more from Sicard this year too. Btw, Euskaltel won't get invited to the Giro or will they?

And who is TP?

With Sicard maybe they will change their mind?

TP= Tylor Phinney

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

With Sicard maybe they will change their mind?

TP= Tylor Phinney

why ?

Sicard has never ridden a GT, can't imagine them riding the giro for his sake

 

[ttrider]

I think Contador will do tour - vuelta (and win both)
Shleck baby to do **** all outside a second in July
Nibali i think will win the Vuelta this year and go on to win the Giro next year also, i can see him then going to the tour but would love him to skip it and have a real crack at Contador at the Vuelta when fresh again
Gesink to join a Contado-Andy tour podium IF HE LEARNS TO TT (after tough fight with a Euskatel duo of Samuel and Anton)

 

[joy118118]

why ?

Sicard has never ridden a GT, can't imagine them riding the giro for his sake

if R Porte is able to ride Giro as his first GT, Sicard is able to do it too.

Tour being his first GT is a worse idea IMHO

 

[royalpig180]

I think Contador will do tour - vuelta (and win both)
Shleck baby to do **** all outside a second in July
Nibali i think will win the Vuelta this year and go on to win the Giro next year also, i can see him then going to the tour but would love him to skip it and have a real crack at Contador at the Vuelta when fresh again
Gesink to join a Contado-Andy tour podium IF HE LEARNS TO TT (after tough fight with a Euskatel duo of Samuel and Anton)

Look, Nibali may be one of the best GT riders of his generation and is just entering his prime, but he's still not on the same level as Contador, not even close. He could never climb with him, and at best is about the same in a TT...

 

[hrotha]

if R Porte is able to ride Giro as his first GT, Sicard is able to do it too.

Tour being his first GT is a worse idea IMHO

But Euskaltel doesn't have the kind of roster that can compete in three GTs. If the Tour is too much, they'll keep him for the Vuelta.

 

[El Pistolero]

Look, Nibali may be one of the best GT riders of his generation and is just entering his prime, but he's still not on the same level as Contador, not even close. He could never climb with him, and at best is about the same in a TT...

Well, we don't know if Contador can do a Giro-Tour double or a Tour-Vuelta double. He might suck as hell after the Tour just like AS sucks at this year's Vuelta. Although I think Contador will do way better in a Tour-Vuelta double then AS if he puts his mind on it. But guys like Igor Anton peak specially for the Vuelta, so it's going to be hard.

--

I would like to see Contador aim for the Giro di Lombardia once. One race won't kill him in the post Tour season =/

Perhaps he can try it in the same year he aims for his Tour-Vuelta double(I just don't see him doing a Giro-Tour double next year)

 

[The Hitch]

Well, we don't know if Contador can do a Giro-Tour double or a Tour-Vuelta double. He might suck as hell after the Tour just like AS sucks at this year's Vuelta. Although I think Contador will do way better in a Tour-Vuelta double then AS if he puts his mind on it. But guys like Igor Anton peak specially for the Vuelta, so it's going to be hard.

--

I would like to see Contador aim for the Giro di Lombardia once. One race won't kill him in the post Tour season =/

Perhaps he can try it in the same year he aims for his Tour-Vuelta double(I just don't see him doing a Giro-Tour double next year)

But this year Contador reached a high form (if not a peak) for Paris Nice, Vuelta a Catalunia, Vuelta a castillia y leon, which he won. He then did Ardennes classics, coming 3rd in FW and top 10 in LBL while helping Vino. He then came 2nd or some such in Dauohine winning 2 stages and then won the tour.

He could change this to simply do Dauphine (not trying, just warm up) Tour, then rest and do Vuelta.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

I looked forward to Sicard finishing this vuelta then having a try in Tour. But now he doesnt take part in it. I expect him to take part in Giro next year. Tour is too soon for him.

He's a neo-pro. Euskaltel have designs on winning this race, they don't want to burn him out and they don't want to risk somebody who they don't know whether they'll be able to offer much help or not. Euskaltel decided they've got a hell of a talent on their hands, and they're not going to pressure him too early. Good for them.

I was looking forward to be seing a bit more from Sicard this year too. Btw, Euskaltel won't get invited to the Giro or will they?

Euskaltel will get invited; they've been invited the last two years (they've had to be). But they've turned their invitations down; with Catalunya, País Vasco, Castilla y León and Asturias, plus the Classics, late March to late April is a very busy time for Euskaltel and so when they DID race the Giro they were mostly sending youngsters and playing no part whatsoever - I think they only had 2 or 3 riders finish the '08 Giro. It was a waste of an invite, so they've handed it over to allow RCS to invite another Italian team who really want to be there the last two years.

Oh, and he was 2nd in an MTF in the Dauphiné. That's plenty from a neo-pro who is riding for a team not known for controlling the race and killing all challenges, and for a rider not renowned for his ITT. The ITT isn't normally as completely decisive in the Dauphiné as it was this year, but even so, I think that TJvG's performance there, and Sagan's year, has led to some pretty unrealistic expectations being foisted on neo-pros.

With Sicard maybe they will change their mind?

It's possible, but they didn't change their mind for Intxausti or any of their other promising youngsters, and the Tour and Vuelta is plenty enough for them. I wish they'd send their youngsters to the Volta a Portugal to help their development (11 days with plenty of mountains and searing heat is good GT prep) but they can't really as they've got the Vuelta a Burgos (next door to them and important) and the Tour de Pologne (ProTour, compulsory attendance) clashing with it. So we can presume that once they decide Sicard is ready he'll probably do the Vuelta, then the Tour the following year. However, French press pressure might push them into putting him into the Tour; they've resisted the temptation to put too much pressure on him so far though.

why ?

Sicard has never ridden a GT, can't imagine them riding the giro for his sake

Exactly

if R Porte is able to ride Giro as his first GT, Sicard is able to do it too.

Tour being his first GT is a worse idea IMHO

Whether he's able is not a question - also Porte is 25 and on Saxo Bank, two factors he has in his favour - because there is very little chance of Euskaltel riding the Giro. It comes at an inopportune time for them, it's of no interest to their sponsors, and their stars will all be indisposed dealing with a calendar to focus on those events most important to the team, meaning most of the riders they'd send would be way down their food chain

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Thanks. Great post

 

[Sophistic]

Contador: No Giro, simply not worth the risk (already has a victory on his resumee)
Evans: No Giro, tried the double this year, not given up the dream of winning the TDF.
Schlecks: F.Schleck at the Giro, Andy concentrating on the Tour
Nibali: Giro and Tour, he is not gonna sit out the most important race two years in a row when he's one of the best.
Basso: No Giro
Anton/Sanchez: One of them (most likely Anton) is gonna ride the Giro, Euskaltel is not gonna let their two best guys do the same double.
Menchov: Giro/Tour; Sastre:Tour/Vuelta
Other strong i expect to go for the GC at the Giro: Leipheimer, Brajkovic(for Sky), Scarponi, Ricco, Karpets, Rogers, Garzelli, Movistar is gonna have a strong squad at every GT.

 

[Anonymous]

The Tyler add for transitions glasses will still be going strong on Eurosport.

they are changing it though.. "hi im tyler farrar, leadout man for thor huschovd at garmin-cervelo"

 

[El Pistolero]

But this year Contador reached a high form (if not a peak) for Paris Nice, Vuelta a Catalunia, Vuelta a castillia y leon, which he won. He then did Ardennes classics, coming 3rd in FW and top 10 in LBL while helping Vino. He then came 2nd or some such in Dauohine winning 2 stages and then won the tour.

He could change this to simply do Dauphine (not trying, just warm up) Tour, then rest and do Vuelta.

I think he's going to do that next year, but let me add that Contador didn't peak at this year's Paris-Nice. And I also think he should do at least one race between the Tour and Vuelta(Vuelta a Burgos or something). Just look at what happened to Schleck bros, Menchov,etc. He was in better form in the 2009 Paris-Nice(even though he bonked there, but that had nothing to do with his form) and he dominated the Tour of 2009. In 2010 Paris-Nice he never showed the form he had last year. In not a single race did I see that form.

I think Contador is one of the very few modern cyclists that can hold a decent condition for a -relatively- long period.

 

[Arnout]

...Long story...

I want to add to this that both Samu and Anton have expressed that they want to ride the Giro once, because they like the race, the history and the supporters. AFAIK Anton has ridden the Giro once (as his first GT, finishing 88th out of the top of my head) but Samu didn't.

Doubt they will do it next year though. It is a very difficult race in the calender, as you explained.

 

[roundabout]

Samu rode the Giro in 2005.

 

[roundabout]

I think Contador is one of the very few modern cyclists that can hold a decent condition for a -relatively- long period.

What about Valverde, Evans, Rodriguez and pretty much every top rider with the exception of Andy Schleck?