2011 World Championship Team Allocation

[Waterloo Sunrise]

With the Giro wrapped it's a decent time to look at the fight for the top 10 in the UCI rankings, giving a full team in Denmark.

As per Wikipedia, the rankings prior to the Giro were -

Rank Nation Points Top five riders
1 Belgium - 750 Gilbert (356), Boonen (140), Nuyens (100), Vansummeren (100), Leukemans (54)
2 Australia - 662 Evans (232), Goss (203), Meyer (106), Matthews (70), Gerrans (51)
3 Spain - 596 Sánchez (163), Rodríguez (127), Intxausti (110), Contador (106), Tondó (90)
4 Italy - 587 Scarponi (202), Pinotti (102), Ballan (100), Basso (92), Nibali (91)
5 Germany - 484 Klöden (202), Martin (197), Greipel (78), Martens (6), Grabsch/Sieberg (1 each, only 1 point counts for nation ranking)
6 Netherlands - 368 Gesink (156), Tjallingii (70), Ten Dam (52), Langeveld (50), Weening (40)
7 Switzerland - 296 Cancellara (236), Rast (60)
8 United States - 276 Horner (143), Farrar (60), Hincapie (40), Leipheimer (22), Talansky (11)
9 France - 178 Chavanel (80), Péraud (41), Mondory (30), Kadri (20), Di Gregorio (7)
10 Great Britain - 174 Swift (89), Wiggins (75), Thomas (5), Millar (5)
11 Luxembourg - 166 F.Schleck (94), A.Schleck (92)
12 Kazakhstan - 146 Vinokorouv (146)
13 Denmark - 132 Bak (50), Fuglsang (41), C.A Sørensen (41)
14 Colombia - 107 Urán (107)
15 Ireland - 72 Martin (72)


Of these, I would suggest Belgium, Australia, Spain, Italy, Germany, Netherlands & the USA are home and hosed.

The final 3 places look like being fought out between the Suisse, the French, the Brits & the Schleck family.

Given the races still to come, I don't believe Vino can single handedly get the Kazakhs up. The other 3 listed nations don't seem strong enough, and the Russians seem to have left it too late, with Menchov disappointing, and not riding the tour.

---------------
So, updating the 4 relevant nations for Giro points we get -

UK -174 + 64 = 238
Suisse - 296 +10 = 306
Lux - 166 + 0 = 166
French - 178 + 115 = 293 (n.b. the french scored a number of redundant points as only the top 5 from each nation count)



Remaining races are -

Dauphine
TD Suisse
TDF
Classica San Sebastian
TD Poland
Eneco Tour
Vattenfall (I am presuming this is the cut off, as per last year).


So, who do we expect to miss out, and do you expect any surprises coming up on the rails?

 

[Descender]

Spain's list :'-(

 

[JRanton]

I fancy our (Brits) chances of finishing above the Swiss. Finishing above either the French or Luxembourg would seem pretty unlikely but not impossible. Could do with several Cav-Swift 1-2's in the Tour.

 

[Mambo95]

Of these, I would suggest Belgium, Australia, Spain, Italy, Germany, Netherlands & the USA are home and hosed.

I wouldn't say that the USA are certainties just yet. Very likely, but not certain.

Two other points:

1. Vattenfall doesn't count this year. The cut off point is 15th August (day after Eneco)

2. To get the full nine riders, the country also has to have nine riders that have scored at least one point. Pre-Giro, the following countries (that you listed) hadn't done it yet - Germany (6), USA (6), UK (4), Denmark (3), Switzerland (2), Luxembourg (2), Ireland (1), Columbia (1), Kazakhstan (1). How many they do get isn't terribly well explained.

From a British point of view, I'm not sure where four more points scorers are going to come from. Blythe? Dowsett? Cummings? Downing? It's not looking too promising.

 

[Moose McKnuckles]

Wait, Gadret is not on that list for France?!?!

 

[Mambo95]

Wait, Gadret is not on that list for France?!?!

"rankings prior to the Giro"

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

2. To get the full nine riders, the country also has to have nine riders that have scored at least one point. Pre-Giro, the following countries (that you listed) hadn't done it yet - Germany (6), USA (6), UK (4), Denmark (3), Switzerland (2), Luxembourg (2), Ireland (1), Columbia (1), Kazakhstan (1). How many they do get isn't terribly well explained.

Some of those countries can't even possibly meet that requirement. There are, for instance, four Irish registered riders on Pro Tour teams, Roche, Martin, Deignan and Brammeier. As far as I can recall, there are no Irish riders on Pro-Conti teams, although there is a fair number on Conti teams.

 

[luckyboy]

As far as I can recall, there are no Irish riders on Pro-Conti teams

Not even on the Irish Colnago and De Rosa squads?

 

[Andy99]

I wouldn't say that the USA are certainties just yet. Very likely, but not certain.

Two other points:

1. Vattenfall doesn't count this year. The cut off point is 15th August (day after Eneco)

2. To get the full nine riders, the country also has to have nine riders that have scored at least one point. Pre-Giro, the following countries (that you listed) hadn't done it yet - Germany (6), USA (6), UK (4), Denmark (3), Switzerland (2), Luxembourg (2), Ireland (1), Columbia (1), Kazakhstan (1). How many they do get isn't terribly well explained.

From a British point of view, I'm not sure where four more points scorers are going to come from. Blythe? Dowsett? Cummings? Downing? It's not looking too promising.

Looks like any of those teams listed will be getting 6 riders if they achieve a top 10 finish in the rankings... (if they have 6 eligible riders...unlike Ireland, for example..)

The 10 first countries in UCI WorldTour classification by nation on 15 August 2011:
each country may enter 14 riders, with 9 to start. However, a nation with fewer than 9
riders classified in the individual UCI WorldTour ranking on 15 August 2011 shall start
the number of riders that are classified. A nation with fewer than 6 riders classified in
the UCI WorldTour ranking will, nonetheless, start 6 riders (* and **).

http://www.uci.ch/Modules/BUILTIN/g...bjTypeCode=FILE&type=FILE&id=NjY2OTc&LangId=1

 

[Ferminal]

Post-Giro rankings are out. No huge changes in the 5-12 region, mainly Gadret pushing France up.

Team Canc the most likely to fall from the top10 I think.

 

[King Of The Wolds]

Could do with several Cav-Swift 1-2's in the Tour.

Swift's doing the Vuelta, which is after the cut off date. I think both are doing Suisse though, so a stage or 2 in that will help. Cav will win his usual handful in the TdF, Thomas may get close in a reduced bunch sprint stage and we could really do with Wiggins in 2009 form.

That said, we're going to struggle to get another 4 points scorers for the full compliment of 9. Dowsett, Blythe, Hunt, Cummings, Downing? A tough ask. Wiggins, Millar, Thomas, Cav, Swift and Downing would still be a pretty strong team though and cover a number of possible bases, depending on the type of race.

 

[Descender]

Current rankings

Rank Prev. Country Code Points
1 3 SPAIN ESP 932
2 4 ITALY ITA 860
3 1 BELGIUM BEL 750
4 2 AUSTRALIA AUS 662
5 5 GERMANY GER 484
6 6 NETHERLANDS NED 384
7 7 SWITZERLAND SUI 306
8 9 FRANCE FRA 295
9 8 UNITED STATES USA 276
10 10 GREAT BRITAIN GBR 238
11 11 LUXEMBOURG LUX 166
12 12 KAZAKHSTAN KAZ 146
13 13 DENMARK DEN 140
14 16 CZECH REPUBLIC CZE 136
15 14 COLOMBIA COL 107

 

[Anonymous]

Team Canc the most likely to fall from the top10 I think.

Which is very unfortunate considering the circumstances.

 

[Sneekes]

...we're going to struggle to get another 4 points scorers for the full compliment of 9. Dowsett, Blythe, Hunt, Cummings, Downing? A tough ask. Wiggins, Millar, Thomas, Cav, Swift and Downing would still be a pretty strong team though and cover a number of possible bases, depending on the type of race.

In addition to those mentioned there's also Daniel Lloyd, Roger Hammond and Chris Froome.
If Dowsett is doing the Tour de Suisse there are two TT opportunities there for him, he only needs 5th place in one of them for a point. Chris Froome wasn't far off a 5th place in Romandie - he may have a chance in Switzerland/Poland/Eneco.

I agree that 9 looks like a long-shot, but there's a decent chance that a couple of those riders will scrape something in the next 3 months.

 

[hatcher]

How do points get divvied up for TTTs?

 

[Andy99]

How do points get divvied up for TTTs?

Good point that. I presume all the riders receive points for whatever position the team finishes..?

 

[Winterfold]

I don't think GB will get 9.

Do we need it? Our best 6 is pretty fecking good train if Wiggo and Millar do the decent thing and ride balls out for Cav.

It shouldn't be too hard a race to control and should come together without massive effort.

Unless it is windy and there are echelons - I dont know the area at all, but imagine Denmark can get pretty windy? Be interested to hear from Danes about this...

 

[Michielveedeebee]

I don't think GB will get 9.

Do we need it? Our best 6 is pretty fecking good train if Wiggo and Millar do the decent thing and ride balls out for Cav.

It shouldn't be too hard a race to control and should come together without massive effort.

Unless it is windy and there are echelons - I dont know the area at all, but imagine Denmark can get pretty windy? Be interested to hear from Danes about this...

yep, Belgium will work their asses off for Tomke (Van Avermaet/Gilbert maybe) GB will for Cav, Italians for Petacchi... It's going to be a very controlled race imo

 

[JRanton]

Swift's doing the Vuelta, which is after the cut off date. I think both are doing Suisse though, so a stage or 2 in that will help. Cav will win his usual handful in the TdF, Thomas may get close in a reduced bunch sprint stage and we could really do with Wiggins in 2009 form.

That said, we're going to struggle to get another 4 points scorers for the full compliment of 9. Dowsett, Blythe, Hunt, Cummings, Downing? A tough ask. Wiggins, Millar, Thomas, Cav, Swift and Downing would still be a pretty strong team though and cover a number of possible bases, depending on the type of race.

Swift does have a chance of being in the Tour team, according to the Sky management themselves, but yeah it's probably more just wishful thinking on my part. Would someone like Stannard be eligible to be selected despite not having a world tour point? If so, then he'd be in my six man team ahead of Downing.

 

[Fus087]

Unless it is windy and there are echelons - I dont know the area at all, but imagine Denmark can get pretty windy? Be interested to hear from Danes about this...

The course is mostly protected by forests or houses. I can't imagine it being so windy that echelons will form.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Swift's doing the Vuelta, which is after the cut off date. I think both are doing Suisse though, so a stage or 2 in that will help. Cav will win his usual handful in the TdF, Thomas may get close in a reduced bunch sprint stage and we could really do with Wiggins in 2009 form.

That said, we're going to struggle to get another 4 points scorers for the full compliment of 9. Dowsett, Blythe, Hunt, Cummings, Downing? A tough ask. Wiggins, Millar, Thomas, Cav, Swift and Downing would still be a pretty strong team though and cover a number of possible bases, depending on the type of race.

Personally I'd take Hunt or Blythe instead of Downing in that situation. Nothing against Russell, just think Hunt as a guide would be better, and Blythe offers more upside.

 

[greenedge]

Yeah Hunt would be good, think he's a great one day rider. However Downing might be a better lead out man for Swift/ Cav. Also i think the course is long enough for some to get dropped. Will Thor get Norway anymore points along with Alexander Kristoff, EBH and Arvensen. Think that is a very versatile team. Also i can picture teams with the sprinters putting in men in breaks so they don't have to chase. Teams like GB will not be doing that and will be burning their matches very quickly. Cav will also not have Renshaw and if he has Swift as his leadout man ( wrong option anyway they should just have Downing and Thomas leading both out doing individual sprints ) he might screw it up. There is no way for them to do any practice races right before the WC in Copenhagen unlike last yr's one in Australia i think by Pozzato. Also the finish looks a bit like it might be congested, expect to see heaps of complaints about other riders.

I think the teams to beat would be Australia, GB, Belgium and Italy with Germany, Norway and Spain too.

Australia because Gerrans, Hayman will be unleashed early, then Evans can ITT away. Then we have Goss, Howard, Renshaw, Haussler and McEwan who should be picked if only for congested sprint.

Gb because of Cav duhhhhhhhhh

Belgium because everyone is a massive threat. Don't think Boonen and GVA would like a sprint out of a 100 man peleton. GVA would not even try to sprint against Greipel, in Tour of Belgium.

Italy because of Visconti, Petacchi, Ballan, Cunego, Nibali and hopefully Guardini

Germny because Kaisen, Zaugg,(?) Greipel/ Degenkolb and Martin

Norway because their likely roster of four shall have Hushovd and EBH and Kristoff as either's leadout.

Spain because of Ventoso. Gutirezz, Anton( if he wants to ) Sammy because he needs to defend his ORR by getting practice and would love to see Contador go in it just to say he can.

Netherlands and France shall attack near the end. LTD and Voeckler shall emerge as the strong men ( hopefully )/ Sagan and Slovenia.

Who shall win the ITT. Cancellara though he would prefer to win the RR.

 

[greenedge]

Odd that Romain felliu only has one point in revised rankings. I have no idea why they don't show continental teams so we can get an inkling of who shall move up next yr.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/gilbert-still-tops-worldtour-ranking-ahead-of-contador