2012 Olympics: Women's Road Race

[The Barb]

At the risk of appearing sexist, I only take notice of women's cycling once every four years, so would appreciate thoughts from the more informed.

They will only be going twice over Box Hill, so presumably a bunch sprint finish is a strong likelihood?

In those circumstances, is Marianne Vos likely to be as dominant as her heavy favouritism would indicate?

 

[Tei6chai]

They will only be going twice over Box Hill, so presumably a bunch sprint finish is a strong likelihood?

Less likely than the men's despite the smaller number of climbs. For two reasons:

1. The Netherlands women are nowhere near as strong or as well-drilled as the GB men.
2. Vos probably doesn't want a bunch sprint, where Bronzini would be favourite.

In those circumstances, is Marianne Vos likely to be as dominant as her heavy favouritism would indicate?

Every other possibility depends on Vos being dropped before, or jumped at, the end so everyone is going to try it.

I expect most teams will be very aggressive, with lots of attacks, since no-one but Italy and the Netherlands is likely to want Vos or Bronzini to be at the front of a big bunch with 10km to go.

Watch out especially for Pooley on Box Hill and Cooke on the return at Richmond.

 

[The Barb]

Nice summary Tei6chei, thanks for that.

I was kinda hoping the answers would be something like that. Best team plus best sprinter would not have made for an exciting race but it sounds like it should be good.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Bronzini favorite in a sprint? I think not.

Vos is the best sprinter, hilly rider and climber. The only problem is she is good all-year round. Bronzini peaks to certain races (last 2 years worlds). And Vos can't react to everyone...

The Dutch team is a lot stronger than the last few years especially since Annemiek van Vleuten really stepped up the past 2 seasons. If they want to try and mark Vos, they will hand the title to Van Vleuten, who has profited from Vos presence this way before.

 

[Tei6chai]

Bronzini favorite in a sprint? I think not.
... Bronzini peaks to certain races (last 2 years worlds)

And you don't think Bronzini cares about the Olympics?

Italy have been far the most drilled womens' national team for some years and have been crucial to Bronzini's world championship wins. They'll be just as good next Sunday.

... And if Vos is such a good sprinter, how come she keeps getting beaten in World Championship and Olympic sprints?

The fastest sprinter is not necessarily the best sprinter ... just compare Greipel and Cav.

 

[Kender]

Womens road racing is almost non existant on NZ television. We only ever get it during the Olympics and the Commonwealth Games.

Our local sports provider doesn't even get the scheduling right. they copy and pasted their coverage description from the mens road race so apparently we're getting mens road race on Saturday and Sunday.

At least they put separate descriptions for the ITT's

Looking forward to watching

 

[mad black]

I dare say it won't be just limited to the Dutch, Italians and Britons. The Germans and Australian women will have a say in it also, as will the Americans.

Either way we'll be in for a treat. At least there will be crowds all over the course in London compared to the desertion 4 years ago in Beijing.

 

[greenedge]

Ardnt will have a good chance. Canada also feature. Australia with Hosking ( Spratt, Gilmore and Cromwell- hopefully ) have a good chance- she seems fast out of a sprint and she is very attentive. I don't think GB will go so well with Lizzie and Nicole- though they are both talented.

Bronzini does seem like the favourite but Vos of course will be challenging.

Who is the good Russian rider Tatania A... something?

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

And you don't think Bronzini cares about the Olympics?

Italy have been far the most drilled womens' national team for some years and have been crucial to Bronzini's world championship wins. They'll be just as good next Sunday.

... And if Vos is such a good sprinter, how come she keeps getting beaten in World Championship and Olympic sprints?

The fastest sprinter is not necessarily the best sprinter ... just compare Greipel and Cav.

Didn't I just explain it? Vos is at 95% all year. If she specifically peaked for these races she would destroy the others in any way. Btw, she didn't lose the sprint all the time, a couple times she won the sprint for 2nd place because 1st place was gone due tactical moves. Did you watch those races I ask?

 

[MartinGT]

Would love to see Armistead win this, but IMO Vos will take it.

 

[MartinGT]

Watch out especially for Pooley on Box Hill and Cooke on the return at Richmond.

I watched the womens GB national Road Race and do try and keep upto date on womens racing in general.

I would agree with Pooley but Cooke, nah, she is having a poor season and I just dont think she will do anything. IMO Laws should of taken her place in the womens team.

 

[canyonball]

Mapmyride Link with profile of the race.

Didn't I just explain it? Vos is at 95% all year. If she specifically peaked for these races she would destroy the others in any way.

So basically.... you're agreeing with him. Bronzini is the favourite vs Vos, if it comes to a sprint on Sunday? Unless you think Bronzini didn't peak/doesn't care for this one.

As for me, I wouldn't put money on Bronzini, Teutenberg or Vos if it comes to a sprint. As I can think of the win going for any of them, as it happened times before when the three were contesting a race.

I would agree with Pooley but Cooke, nah, she is having a poor season and I just dont think she will do anything. IMO Laws should of taken her place in the womens team.

This didn't get the attention it deserves ont the press and fans IMO. Cooke might as well come to London and win the race. But from an outsider's perspective there's no logical reason Cooke should have been selected ahead of Laws. Sharon had a wonderful season, she is in form, she is tactically gutsy and she has a good sprint. Could play the free role perfectly. I would be very happy to read the reasoning, but I have found nothing on the british press about this. Not that they have to justify themselves. I'm just curious.

 

[Pentacycle]

What's happened to Nicole Cooke btw? She won both Olympic and World road races 4 years ago, but doesn't seem motivated anymore.

 

[Tei6chai]

What's happened to Nicole Cooke btw? She won both Olympic and World road races 4 years ago, but doesn't seem motivated anymore.

I'm fairly sure that two team failures, including the team she managed herself, together with attendant legal complications, plus long term injuries have had their effect of her motivation.

But I also suspect that she's found it difficult to come to terms with the increased competition from individuals and teams.

She's always been a bit of a lone wolf, who was so dominant in the past that she could turn races on her own, without the need for too much team support.

That no longer seems possible.

That said, she's still a big occasion rider and she's still comparatively young.

Two recent 4th places in the World Championships (also with poor previous form and little team support) speak to her ability to rise to the occasion.

I suspect that she'll need an incredible amount of dedication and Wiggins-level support from an organisation like British Cycling if she is ever to return to her previous dominance.

That said, I really do expect her to do something interesting on Sunday.

 

[MartinGT]

@Canyonball, I would agree, but to get cycling in the British press, pffft. I am shocked how much attention Wiggins got! I was suprised the BBC 5Live actually bumbped a horse race off the air to hear the interview with Wiggins on the Champs! The BBC website though on the day had the Golf on their main page still.

Back on track.

I was at the 2010 National RR when Cooke was battling hard against Pooley, Armistead & Laws and when you are fighting v 3 people on a team its always going to be hard.

Hopefully she can re-focus and get back on track for next season.

 

[gustienordic]

I think the podium will be Vos, Bronzini, Pooley.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Ardnt will have a good chance. Canada also feature. Australia with Hosking ( Spratt, Gilmore and Cromwell- hopefully ) have a good chance- she seems fast out of a sprint and she is very attentive. I don't think GB will go so well with Lizzie and Nicole- though they are both talented.

Bronzini does seem like the favourite but Vos of course will be challenging.

Who is the good Russian rider Tatania A... something?

Tatiana Antoshina. I like her, but I don't think she's having the best of seasons compared to 2011, though to be fair in Rabo she's kind of pushed down the pecking order with Vos and van Vleuten there.

And nobody's mentioned Emma Johansson yet? I would argue that I'd consider her almost nailed on for a medal, but what colour is a crapshoot. I'll guess at Bronze, but either of the others are well within her scope.

 

[JibberJim]

I think the podium will be Vos, Bronzini, Pooley.

How do you see it panning out to get that result? Huge crashing leaving the odd 3 riders away?

 

[Tei6chai]

How do you see it panning out to get that result? Huge crashing leaving the odd 3 riders away?

+1 LOL

If Pooley arrives ahead of the field she'll be entirely on her own ... having TTed from Box Hill.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

I'd love it so much if that were to happen, but if anybody can do it, it's Emma.

Stand back, there's a tiny blonde time triallist on the charge!

 

[JibberJim]

+1 LOL

If Pooley arrives ahead of the field she'll be entirely on her own ... having TTed from Box Hill.

There is actually a way with Pooley away solo and caught just at the line with Vos and Bronzini legit sprint out of the group and the rest behind Pooley, But I don't think there's a chance Pooley will get away, it's not steep enough that she won't always be covered, so I expect she'll do more of a job just keeping Armistead and Cooke in with a shot if the Dutch and Italians have people in a break.

 

[theyoungest]

Vos is of course the overwhelming favourite, but everyone bases their game plan on her, and it's difficult to follow every move. In the sprint she's usually the fastest as well, but even there she can get outmanoeuvred, as we've seen Bronzini do the last two years.

I actually hope Emma Pooley will win. Unless Mark Cavendish has won the day before.