2013 Milan-San Remo, 17 March (298km)

[theyoungest]

its msr, not the amstel gold race or lbl
should be able to handle 290km of flat and 10km of hills

Can he descend? I'm not so sure.

Wasn't he pretty bad in the Tirreno?

I think he was okay. Two stages where the climb was a little too long for him and then the epic hills stage where he flatted in the final. Looking at his final TT result his form is still good.

 

[HiCadence]

mmm not sure about this Sagan is a massive target in this race so i think it could possibly be Moser to take the win and i also think Cav has been playing down his chances alot and that OPQ have something in store.

 

[Don't be late Pedro]

Who is the better descender Sagan or Cancellara?

 

[Netserk]

Who is the better descender Sagan or Cancellara?

Sagan. In the Lugano prologue he took 3 seconds from Canc last year in the descent alone.

 

[phanatic]

Cyclingfever is listing

Good news. We have a viable dark horse to upset Sagan.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Good news. We have a viable dark horse to upset Sagan.

Indeed.

Well, well well Nibali will have a friend on Cipressa. It will be needed to pull off a long distance attack.

 

[El Pistolero]

IMO it has the right balance now. I still want Boonen to win it one day

I could very well see Pippo, Sagan and Nibali ride and stay away on the Poggio.

http://www.vandaag.be/sport/119540_tom-boonen-vanaf-e3-moet-ik-er-staan.html

Not going to happen this year though. He says he'll be ready for E3 Harelbeke.

I hope he grabs a win sooner than that though. I also heard some rumours that he will start in the Driedaagse de Panne-Koksijde this year.

 

[Netserk]

http://www.vandaag.be/sport/119540_tom-boonen-vanaf-e3-moet-ik-er-staan.html

Not going to happen this year though. He says he'll be ready for E3 Harelbeke.

I hope he grabs a win sooner than that though. I also heard some rumours that he will start in the Driedaagse de Panne-Koksijde this year.

He should have won it in '10

I really want to see him win Het Volk, San Remo and Tours.

 

[EvansIsTheBest]

No, I know and it's probably more wishful thinking that he will be able to challenge than it is a realistic prediction

He showed nothing last year prior to MSR and finished 5th, so I wouldn't be surprised if he podiumed but I don't see anybody beating Sagan who will collect his first of many Milan-San Remo.

 

[Pentacycle]

He showed nothing last year prior to MSR and finished 5th, so I wouldn't be surprised if he podiumed but I don't see anybody beating Sagan who will collect his first of many Milan-San Remo.

He was pretty good at P-N 2012, finishing 3rd twice there. He's very clearly nowhere near that level now.

 

[El Pistolero]

He should have won it in '10

I really want to see him win Het Volk, San Remo and Tours.

Ever since he lost Tours in 2009 he hates the race.

He did however win on the Avenue du Grammont once during the Tour de France though... Same thing.

 

[Lexman]

Gilbert couldn't out sprint Chavanel at Paris Nice although he misjudged it badly or his team did. Hit the front too far out.

he admitted that he started to sprint way tooo soon...no more men left to bring him closer to the finish....

 

[Afrank]

1. Sagan
2. Gilbert
3. Cance
4. Nibali
5. Santambrogio

6. Goss
7. Pippo
8. Hushovd
9. Haussler
10. Degenkolb

 

[LaFlorecita]

I hope Pippo and Thor can do well

 

[BillytheKid]

Hard to looks past Sagan for this. He will take his first monument victory. I think he and Nibali will get to the finish alone together. Sagans biggest threats are Cavendish, Greipel and Degenkolb in that order.

I would argue, that Cancelerra's recent remarks about the outcome being more like the lottery may ring true although Sagan is the top bid for good reason.

 

[Knutsen]

Get ready to be ebh-alized!

 

[Der Effe]

Can he descend? I'm not so sure.


I think he was okay. Two stages where the climb was a little too long for him and then the epic hills stage where he flatted in the final. Looking at his final TT result his form is still good.

Yeah, I didn't have the chance to watch much except the hilly stage, so I asked. Just read he's Blanco's protected man. But I think it was you that said Blanco must have peaked for February so it will probably be the 2011 season all over again.

 

[gthx_gthx_]

If Sagan end up in a group with a bunch of punchers he will win , if sagan ends up in a reduced group with top sprinters he may will.
If the weather is bad , he'll be even better...
Hard to see past him , unless things become really uncontrolable and even so he seems to handle that pretty well.
MSR is made for him , he deserves to win his first monument here.

However i pick Satambrogio as a possible winner too , he have a decent sprint , and he seems to be in excellent shape. He also did a nice Giro Di Lombardia lastt year so at least we know he handle long distance.

 

[greenedge]

Outsiders for me include Hushovd and a strong BMC team, Chavanel- if Cav goes and Albasini/Impey (who i think rode really well at Stirling and at T-A) and Geraint Thomas.

The big favourite is Sagan and i think the race will be hard enough to drop the likes of Cav and Greipel.

Goss therefore would probably be the most likely sprint challenger and i think he can do a great ride.

Cancellara and Nibali will also feature.

 

[CraZyCaLL]

Ciolek can surprise here, he can survive Poggio and Cipressa much better than Cav and Greipel. He has good chances for top-3

 

[The Hitch]

What makes you think these two will finish alone together, if Sagan wins then there will be a number of people who finish in the group with him

If its a break on the Poggio like last year, Sagan wins.

If its a reduced sprint, Sagan wins.

If its a mass sprint, Sagan will be far less tired by the Cipressa and Poggio, Sagan (probably) wins.

He loses if he has a mechanical, if the break stays clear, if Moser stays clear, or if he has a go on the poggio and it gets brought back in which case he might be just as tired as Cav and Cav wins. Even if its Goss though sagan may still win the sprint.

 

[burning]

Ciolek can surprise here, he can survive Poggio and Cipressa much better than Cav and Greipel. He has good chances for top-3

Good call, surprised that he is not mentioned in the OP

 

[jaylew]

Ciolek can surprise here, he can survive Poggio and Cipressa much better than Cav and Greipel. He has good chances for top-3

Yeah, in my mind the way Sagan loses is if he has a go on the Poggio or Cipressa with Nibs and others...and they are brought back late by a group with a good sprinter or two. Goss, Ciolek, even Hushovd or Pozzato could score that way.

Of course there's always the chance of a mass sprint with Cav, Greipel and co. in which case all bets are off, but I don't think that will happen.

 

[RHRH19861986]

In fact, San Remo could be the 100% perfect race for Sagan. Hills in the finale, tricky descents, tricky roads on the last kms from Poggio into San Remo, that all suits him perfectly. Plus, he can manage very long distances, and will be even better in that in the next few years.

San Remo is always somehow a surprise package, everything can happen; best indication is that Boonen never won it, until now.

Looking forward to just a good day of racing, and hoping there are no such pictures, when Gerolsteiner´s Kopp and Moletta crashed so badly on the Capo Cervo and Cipressa, respectively.

 

[Descender]

they really need to reduce that to give a lone attacker a better chance

Place the finish back in Via Roma.