2014 Gent-Wevelgem, March 30th, (1.UWT)

[ILovecycling]

...
What do you think about Kristoff and Degenkolb chances in De Ronde?

Very good chances for top-10.

Neither will contend for the win.

Why?coz of Canc dominance or because they are not even Top5 prospect for RVV?

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Why?coz of Canc dominance or because they are not even Top5 prospect for RVV?

I agree with Netserk. Hard to see either win, mainly because of Cancellara. Both have a decent chance of top 5 or even top 3 though.

 

[ILovecycling]

I agree with Netserk. Hard to see either win, mainly because of Cancellara. Both have a decent chance of top 5 or even top 3 though.

e.g. I dont consider Cancellara as a dominant favourite,yes he is little bit above Sagan,Vanmaercke,Terpstra(Stybar) but I think he is not at 2013 level (Sagan either imo).

You think he is dominant coz of E3 solo ride?Or just beacuse its Cancellara

 

[Hugo Koblet]

e.g. I dont consider Cancellara as a dominant favourite,yes he is little bit above Sagan,Vanmaercke,Terpstra(Stybar) but I think he is not at 2013 level (Sagan either imo).

You think he is dominant coz of E3 solo ride?Or just beacuse its Cancellara

I think that Cancellara is as strong as ever. No one was even close to beating him last year and I expect more of the same this year. For me, Cancellara is the overwhelming favorite.

But even if he's not, both Degenkolb and Kristoff will have a hard time hanging on to other attacks (from Vanmarcke, Boonen, Sagan etc.).

 

[maltiv]

Why?coz of Canc dominance or because they are not even Top5 prospect for RVV?

Both needs a bunch sprint in a group of 15 or so to win the race, which just won't happen (unless there's a MASSIVE headwind or something).

Kristoff was 4th last year and Degenkolb was 9th, they'll probably end up somewhere similar this year, but nowhere near winning.

 

[Maaaaaaaarten]

I think that Cancellara is as strong as ever. No one was even close to beating him last year and I expect more of the same this year. For me, Cancellara is the overwhelming favorite

Although I agree Cancellara is the overwhelming favourite, given his show in E3, Vanmarcke actualy did come very close to beating Cancellara last year. In fact, I think most people expected him to win, after it became clear Canc couldn't drop him, because Vanmarcke actually has a very decent sprint, as illustrated again this GW.

Vanmarcke is in top shape too I think, so I reckon he's gonna be the closest to Canc. Hopefully Sep won't be crying after this PR!

 

[Buffalo Soldier]

Degenkolb winning RvV would make him the youngest victor since Merckx 1969 (placing himself before Boonen 2005 on that ranking)

Other fun fact: Boonen winning would make him the 3th oldest ever to do so, behind only Tchmill and Tafi. The expected Cancelarra win would place him 5th on that list.

 

[ILovecycling]

Interesting opinions.I agree that Degenkolb and Kristoff dont have a chance for top places coz they need a group sprint.I thought Degenkolb can handle big attacks on cobbles,but like we saw in E3,not so big attack from Sagan distanced him.And attacks from Canc,VM or Terpstra in Ronde will be twice as strong.

About Cancellara.Look at last years RVV.He distanced Sagan on Paterberg by how much, 10 seconds?I know that for Canc its sufficient to distance anyone for 3-5 seconds (or 5-10 meters),then its game over for opponents unless there is a great cooperation,which is HIGHLY unlikely in this phase and type of a race.
Anyway Im not sure if he can create the gap in this years Ronde.VM and Sagan looks stronger on cobbles I think,same for Omega.
Then there is a thing about positioning in which I dont believe to Styby for example.
Weather will be a big factor too,tempratures will be high, thats almost certain (good for Boonen),for rain forecast its too early.
I just remembered another thing.Devolder.Big advantage for Canc this year.His team should make the race harder than 2013.uhhm...will be an interesting race (despite i dont like 'new' route)

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Although I agree Cancellara is the overwhelming favourite, given his show in E3, Vanmarcke actualy did come very close to beating Cancellara last year. In fact, I think most people expected him to win, after it became clear Canc couldn't drop him, because Vanmarcke actually has a very decent sprint, as illustrated again this GW.

Vanmarcke is in top shape too I think, so I reckon he's gonna be the closest to Canc. Hopefully Sep won't be crying after this PR!

That's talking Paris-Roubaix and not Vlaanderen, though. Yeah, Vanmarcke packs a decent sprint but so does Cancellara. I'd give the edge to Cancellara in a heads up between the two.

Re Sagan and Vlaanderen: I think he's hard to rate. He has yet to show that he's able to follow Cancellara when he, Fabian, really turns on his engine. This year might be the year he shows that, but although Sagan dropped Degenkolb on Karnemelkbeekstraat (I think it was), he himself wasn't looking that good on Oude-Kwaremont (again I think it was).

 

[ILovecycling]

That's talking Paris-Roubaix and not Vlaanderen, though. Yeah, Vanmarcke packs a decent sprint but so does Cancellara. I'd give the edge to Cancellara in a heads up between the two.

Re Sagan and Vlaanderen: I think he's hard to rate. He has yet to show that he's able to follow Cancellara when he, Fabian, really turns on his engine. This year might be the year he shows that, but although Sagan dropped Degenkolb on Karnemelkbeekstraat (I think it was), he himself wasn't looking that good on Oude-Kwaremont (again I think it was).

True,but I think it was his positioning mistake at Paterberg (mainly) and Kwaremont,but this counts too I know.
When Stybar,Stijn and VM can handle Canc cobble attacks I think Sagan can too.Question is what impact have the hellingens in RVV,coz these riders handled only flat cobbles

 

[manafana]

boonen saying he could have won because of this and that is something you here from any number of guys involved in a sprint unless the winner clearly hammered everyone else.

 

[Netserk]

Why?coz of Canc dominance or because they are not even Top5 prospect for RVV?

Because being (more than) decent on the bergs and having a great sprint is enough to get top-10 or top-5 depending on how the race unfolds, but that's just not enough to win. 1st place will never come down to a bunch sprint, and neither are strong enough to win solo, or to make the selection of the three or five strongest who will stay away.

 

[tomorrow]

True,but I think it was his positioning mistake at Paterberg (mainly) and Kwaremont,but this counts too I know.

I partly agree with you, but there are some additions. Yes, Sagan was in bad position at patter. Why, because he was getting back from his second bike change, that happened before the decisive crash. I saw a photo somewhere, from which I could see, that sagan may have been the last that was not affected by that crash. Then, he made quite effort to get to front on paterberg, which was the bet possible place to do it for him. Why, because it's steep and due to sagans position on bike, he's much more comfortable on cobbles when the course is very steep. On something less steeper, or even flat(kwaremont is not very steep, only long) he has more difficulty to stay with guys that sit more in the back. And as result he wasn't feeling that well by the time they reached kwaremont, as he stated in post race interviews. He even said he didn't think he could win at that time. So sagan's performance on kwaremont wasn't what he's capable of.

To sum it up, we need to wait for kwaremont and paterberg duo in reversed order in ronde to really see, what shape is cancellara and what shape is sagan, and others. Cancellara is certainly better, but it probably is not enough. I personally think, that cancellara will not be able to drop sagan on kwaremont(he couldn't do it last year too, and I think fabian was in better shape then), and it will depend on amount of strengths that sagan will have saved to paterberg, if he can hang on. For sagan actually, I might be better if isolated with fabian after kwaremont like last year. As a result, fabian might refuse to work either and terpstra and stybar and maybe someone else will catch up. However, this doesn't really need to worry sagan and he can save the energy for pater, where fireworks will happen again.

 

[ChrisE]

I just remembered another thing.Devolder.Big advantage for Canc this year.His team should make the race harder than 2013.uhhm...will be an interesting race (despite i dont like 'new' route)

I came in here looking for the RVV thread that hasn't started yet, just to say this. Devolder looked strong yesterday dragging that break.

 

[ILovecycling]

I partly agree with you, but there are some additions. Yes, Sagan was in bad position at patter. Why, because he was getting back from his second bike change, that happened before the decisive crash. I saw a photo somewhere, from which I could see, that sagan may have been the last that was not affected by that crash. Then, he made quite effort to get to front on paterberg, which was the bet possible place to do it for him. Why, because it's steep and due to sagans position on bike, he's much more comfortable on cobbles when the course is very steep. On something less steeper, or even flat(kwaremont is not very steep, only long) he has more difficulty to stay with guys that sit more in the back. And as result he wasn't feeling that well by the time they reached kwaremont, as he stated in post race interviews. He even said he didn't think he could win at that time. So sagan's performance on kwaremont wasn't what he's capable of.

To sum it up, we need to wait for kwaremont and paterberg duo in reversed order in ronde to really see, what shape is cancellara and what shape is sagan, and others. Cancellara is certainly better, but it probably is not enough. I personally think, that cancellara will not be able to drop sagan on kwaremont(he couldn't do it last year too, and I think fabian was in better shape then), and it will depend on amount of strengths that sagan will have saved to paterberg, if he can hang on. For sagan actually, I might be better if isolated with fabian after kwaremont like last year. As a result, fabian might refuse to work either and terpstra and stybar and maybe someone else will catch up. However, this doesn't really need to worry sagan and he can save the energy for pater, where fireworks will happen again.

Do you think it has such an impact on performance on Pater and Oude?I mean the steep/not steep saddle positon thing...
Im worried its a bit overestimated.

You mentioned Peters right tactics.If I understood it correct.You think he shouldnt take turns with Canc and calmly wait even for another riders...Do you think Canc will wait for this?

I dont think that his pulls last year (only few) cost him the power to follow Canc on pater.

 

[Buffalo Soldier]

Sagan seems weaker than last year, and paradoxically, that is what might give him the win.

If he would have won the MSR and GW sprints, no way any rider would want to drag him to the finish line. But he didn't
So when you say:

I know that for Canc its sufficient to distance anyone for 3-5 seconds (or 5-10 meters),then its game over for opponents unless there is a great cooperation,which is HIGHLY unlikely in this phase and type of a race.

Well, it is far more likely this year than before. I think both Boonen and Vanmarcke believe they make a chance against Sagan in a sprint after 260 km. And Cancellara even knows it for a fact.

 

[Netserk]

Do you think it has such an impact on performance on Pater and Oude?I mean the steep/not steep saddle positon thing...
Im worried its a bit overestimated.

You mentioned Peters right tactics.If I understood it correct.You think he shouldnt take turns with Canc and calmly wait even for another riders...Do you think Canc will wait for this?

I dont think that his pulls last year (only few) cost him the power to follow Canc on pater.

I think they might have. It certainly was the wrong thing to do by Sagan.

 

[rghysens]

Degenkolb winning RvV would make him the youngest victor since Merckx 1969 (placing himself before Boonen 2005 on that ranking).

You forget van Hooydonk, who was 22 when he won in 1989 (while Merckx was 23).

 

[Buffalo Soldier]

You forget van Hooydonk, who was 22 when he won in 1989 (while Merckx was 23).

True, also Vanderaerden '85 and some more, apparently.
Anyway, he would be one of the youngest ever.

 

[ILovecycling]

Sagan seems weaker than last year, and paradoxically, that is what might give him the win.

If he would have won the MSR and GW sprints, no way any rider would want to drag him to the finish line. But he didn't
So when you say:


Well, it is far more likely this year than before. I think both Boonen and Vanmarcke believe they make a chance against Sagan in a sprint after 260 km. And Cancellara even knows it for a fact.

Very good point.There is a bigger feeling of Sagan's not so great sprint than last year.But,I think Boonen,VM nor Canc won't risk this.I think if they see Sagan in a race like RVv they just think,'oh f..ck Sagan on my wheel I have to drop him asap!'
Just because its Sagan a guy who is sometimes capable of beating a world best sprinter.

I think they might have. It certainly was the wrong thing to do by Sagan.

It was.Maybe he heard public and press shouting cobarde,cobarde!

 

[tomorrow]

Do you think it has such an impact on performance on Pater and Oude?I mean the steep/not steep saddle positon thing...
Im worried its a bit overestimated.

Well I think it does necessarily have enourmous impact, in such tough conditions like cobbles, where you're going 100%, even having benefit of 1%, and that I think is more, can be crucial.

You mentioned Peters right tactics.If I understood it correct.You think he shouldnt take turns with Canc and calmly wait even for another riders...Do you think Canc will wait for this?

I dont think that his pulls last year (only few) cost him the power to follow Canc on pater.

Well, again, it cost him power, the amount is not that important. Even a small amount could have cost him the race. With knowing, that if being caught by others, he would still be the fastest in sprint, purely tactically, he shoudn't have taken the pulls. His only goal should be not getting dropped by Cancellara, if he doesn't wait for the others. I think, that the huge hype that cancellara doesn't like sagan because he wheelsucked him in TdF might have some impact. Yes it was brave, but it was not bright, mainly if knowing, that cancellara is that freaking good

 

[ILovecycling]

Well I think it does necessarily have enourmous impact, in such tough conditions like cobbles, where you're going 100%, even having benefit of 1%, and that I think is more, can be crucial.




Well, again, it cost him power, the amount is not that important. Even a small amount could have cost him the race. With knowing, that if being caught by others, he would still be the fastest in sprint, purely tactically, he shoudn't have taken the pulls. His only goal should be not getting dropped by Cancellara, if he doesn't wait for the others. I think, that the huge hype that cancellara doesn't like sagan because he wheelsucked him in TdF might have some impact. Yes it was brave, but it was not bright, mainly if knowing, that cancellara is that freaking good

I think it had a massive impact indeed,unfortunately.

 

[wayahead]

Sagan seems weaker than last year, and paradoxically, that is what might give him the win.

If he would have won the MSR and GW sprints, no way any rider would want to drag him to the finish line. But he didn't

I totally agree – considering 1. his worse sprinting giving some hope to other riders, 2. his better endurance (T-A mountain stage), 3. his improved tactical acumen. But above all 4. Cance seems to be A BIT weaker as well. Sagan was super-strong last spring, but not as strong as Cance. That resulted to G-W victory (without Cance, which wouldn't allow him to escape in the finale), several minor victories and several dissappointing seconds (MSR, E3, RvV) resulting from Cance's dominance. Sagan was great, sparkling, wasting energy in minor races, but not No1 when it really mattered.

 

[Don't be late Pedro]

4. Cance seems to be A BIT weaker as well.

How are you judging this? He was second in MSR and looked pretty strong in E3 albeit a mechanical stopped him placing in a better position.

 

[wayahead]

How are you judging this? He was second in MSR and looked pretty strong in E3 albeit a mechanical stopped him placing in a better position.

Just a pieces of what I've seen:
SB '13: Cance trying to attack and shake off Sagan. SB '14: Nothing special (on the Sagan's "bad" day).
MSR '13: Cance making several strong attacks in the finale. MSR '14: Cance waiting for sprint.
E3 '13: Cance attacking strongly and flying away on Oude, finishing alone one minute ahead of the others. E3 '14: Message not so clear, no head-to-head comparison (due to circumstances), Cance great chase, but gyus at the front rode well too.

That's why I think Cance v.2014 is strong, but Cance v.13 was "a bit" stronger.